Trinity Exploration & Pr... Takeover Rumours (TRIN)

Back in the (unemotional) real world. The TRIN board will have done their deals with TXP and given the good deal that TXP were getting I can only guess that our dear friends on the TRIN board were not short changed. All done....all nice and cosy ....shit !!!....a cash bid that is very hard to ignore. Either the TXP takeover was a done deal or it wasn't....it wasn't. The new bidder it perfectly entitled to make the bid and the TRIN board (grudgingly?)must give it due consideration. I would imagine the lawyers acting for the new bidders have let their views be known. It looks rather obvious to me that this is a genuine bid ....real people, real money, real intent. The amazing thing is that if shares are bought today there is a 30%upside to 68p !!!! Even if it took six months that is one helluva return. Not guaranteed but not an outrageous assumption.......better than most when buyin/selling shares!!!

I find it strange that people are treating this as some sort of indecent proposal. TXP are currently offering 45p with promises of great and wonderful things in the future ..... this other bidders is offering 68p cash now !!!??? Okay it isn't as clear cut as that but it looks good to me. The takeover panel has given the new bidder until the 16th to piss or get off the potty ....again this seems perfectly reasonable to me. This offer lets TRIN shareholders get out if the frying pan and miss the fire. Any TRIN shareholder who thinks the TXP offer is great can then buy into TXP shares and probably on far better terms than currently on offer. You pays your money you takes your chance !!!

Because the takeover price isn’t 61p. The takeover price is whatever 1.5 Touchstone shares are worth when the takeover completes. At the moment they are worth 50.25p.

Why is it 46p if the takeover price in a few months is 61p?

I have happily voted for takeover, knowing what TXP brings to the table and upside TRIN assets have.It's a win win.

There is no reason why the takeover should not take place. There is no alternative pressure on shareholders to reject it. Quite the contrary in fact.

There must be considerable doubt this merger will take place if the share price is so much lower than the takeover price?

The full set of documents are available here: hTTps://trinityexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Scheme-Document.pdf Trinity’s spent £2.6 million on the takeover, nearly a million more than Touchstone. It looks as though the two executive directors get 12 months’ notice pay and the non-executives three months. The Touchstone valuation looks very encouraging. Still no apology.

TRIN management are as atrocious as TXP management at shareholder communication. You would think they would have mentioned the voting date for the takeover, maybe they don't know…even worse

No mention of takeover in AGM documents, strange?

If the 448,431 share held in Trinity’s employee share trust were transferred to shareholders, we’d get extra shares equivalent to 60% of the dividend we were supposed to receive (assuming the takeover price of 61p). I doubt it’s possible, but reading through the accounts there should be no share bonuses for 2023 (the 448,431 shares were transferred into the trust last September and came from the bought back shares held in the treasury and so cost us about $0.5 million).

I don’t think the management would have done any of this unless forced to by shareholders. It is an utter disgrace and they deserve to forfeit their jobs. It has changed my life for the worse but I don’t think it’ll dent theirs. We haven’t even heard about the vote or AGM. They would have failed to organize a p*** up in a brewery. I can safely say this would not have happened under Bruce. Utter disgrace. I hope they read this as they are not fit for purpose. We must vote for the takeover as Trinity under this management would squander open-endedly. The cost savings are worth it in themselves. But when is the bloody vote? Can’t they even do that right?

It’s perhaps worth noting that Nick Clayton was in Trinidad last week meeting with the Energy Minister to explain the Touchstone takeover - see the photograph in this tweet: hTTps://twitter.com/TTMEEI/status/1788672001218924840 I’m happy with the takeover (although at 62p I’ll be down by over 50%, it presents the best opportunity for near-term recovery). If anyone thinks there’s another deal waiting in the wings, I’d suggest that’s unlikely now. Trinity’s had 6 months to find someone else and is clearly now preparing for government approval of this deal. I expect the general meeting will be announced any day now (we might get the annual results this week and receive the date with them; since it’s not the annual general meeting, my understanding is that only 14 days’ notice is required).

This merger/takeover would suit the govt. well as it makes more production far more likely. More production means more govt. revenue. There would have to be a bizarre reason for courts or govt. to block this.

From the takeover document: “It is expected that the Scheme Document will be published as soon as reasonably practicable, that the Court Meeting and the General Meeting shall be held on or around the end of May 2024 and that the Scheme shall become Effective before the end of Q3 2024.â€￾

BA was set for late 2024 early 2025 drilling. Environmental licence already applied for. Delays inevitable but probably partially factored in. Trin’s cashflow was in part to be accumulated for this purpose. Either way, if the takeover goes through, better for TXP to assign priorities their own way, so it’s kind of academic really. If I become a holder of TXP, I will want them to just do their jobs properly. Something which was not the case for Trin in 2023 and which was responsible for the share price demise. The Chairman whinge about BB holders was out of order. People can talk utter tosh on these chatsites ( me included)and a responsible business should recognize that. I just want the vote done and dusted in September, so I/we can move on .

TXP haven't raised funds in 1.5 years and can increase debt with steady cashflow which they agreed for their drilling plans this year. TXP shareholders aren't overly happy, I certainly wasn't when I initially read about this acquisition. Especially as we ramp up production quickly in Cascadura.I had exited TRIN and switched to TXP because I didn't like the off shore risk.I see this acquisition as timely for TRIN shareholders just as growth of production ramps up for TXP.However, I think the deal makes the enlarged groups prospects better together.If TRIN shareholders don't agree to this deal, the share price will fall back to pre takeover levels. TXP share price should recover as the market reacts to the upside prospects, this making the takeover price look better as we move into the following weeks/months.

Above post assumes that TXP have not said they won’t increase their offer (which I believe to be the case and is important under the Takeover Code)

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Good post AB. From my reading of the Galeota farm out, they paused it in 2022 because the tax situation was 'evolving' and that made it harder to value, they also had a plan that required $250m capex up front. Tax regime is sorted now. It is frustrating then that its taking so long for them to issue a new field dev plan that can be marketed and sold to investors - and it does feel like stalling to take home the salary another year. On Jacobin, that is the only near term catalyst I could see some good news from... I honestly don't see a takeover or sale anytime soon, and I think its partly because the board are very very comfy where they are thanks

This company has over 49% shareholder holdings by large holders. They have potential influence. But may just be sitting back. No idea. Shareholders have a vote on any takeover. Going private? Not sure. Be careful when sowing seeds of worry here. Shares can only “ disappearâ€￾ if the company goes into liquidation/Admin. It is not fair to worry people. Hostile takeover ? Maybe, but there are procedures to be followed. The large shareholders don’t hold their shares without influence and will not accept a wipeout. Newlands owns over 10% and could call an EGM if wished. Don’t sow seeds of worry. We have suffered enough.

Takeover, partial or full sale, sale of an asset, fatm-in, or just capital accumulation…….all potentials. Trin is an anomaly, but the AIM index is unintelligent and doesn’t give a hoot. It relies on volume much of the time. One sale of just over £1k took it down 2p on Friday. It shows the nature of the index. Grossly disconnected.

Don’t expect director buys. They have a LTIP and chunky salary. Why risk? CEO already owns a fair few, I believe Menzies and Clayton own a dribble. If they wanted more, they would have bought. Not gonna happen. If they continue to fluff it, I would expect that shareholders will unite. Or a merger or takeover, or asset sale. At the moment they are receiving a good price for their oil at 15% discount to Brent. About $73-4. Oil climbed due to Opec’s continuing restrictions in order to raise the price. Shame , because Russia, Opec’s joint leader , benefits hugely selling to India and China and elsewhere, thus easily funding the war. Expect nothing with Trin this year and you will not be disappointed. However , in the stock market there are surprises at times. Can’t rule out an asset sale, farm-in or takeover. Alone , Trin will do nothing but pay nice salaries.

I am on the same page as you Skyship. Trinity has bought back a fair amount of shares as we know. All it takes is an asset sale, some kind of farm-in/takeover ant this share will not creep up. Trin rarely creeps up or down. I see over £1 as being absolutely not pie un the sky for 2024. Not in any way.