Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jubilee Metals Group Plc LSE:JLP London Ordinary Share GB0031852162 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.225 -5.49% 3.875 8,346,573 14:08:08
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
3.75 4.00 4.05 3.875 4.05
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 14.14 -2.40 -0.18 72
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:21:50 O 68,048 3.835 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
17/10/201917:31Mighty Oaks from Tiny Acorns (Moderated)15,278
17/10/201915:43Mighty Shorts from Tiny Acorns (UnModerated)908
20/5/201907:57Jubilee Metals at the UK Investor Show 2

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Jubilee Metals Daily Update: Jubilee Metals Group Plc is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker JLP. The last closing price for Jubilee Metals was 4.10p.
Jubilee Metals Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 2.98p and a 12 week average price of 2.65p.
The 1 year high share price is 4.10p while the 1 year low share price is currently 2.03p.
There are currently 1,855,300,673 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,274,907 shares. The market capitalisation of Jubilee Metals Group Plc is £71,892,901.08.
kryptonsnake: "At least one institution been accumulating here for months, just in small volumes each day so as not to spook the share price " God forbid they would want to spook the share price. They need to keep it low for the next placing LOLsss You know what happened when Miton bought in around 3.6 in a placing, then the share price fell to 2p. Institutions will continue to be disappointed here I don't know why they bother LOLsss
goldibucks: “I fail to see any other company on AIM with the multi bag potential that JLP has”. It has almost no multi-bag potential. Kabwe done well, after the 11% BMR royalty, and after 35% Zambian corporation tax will just about replace Hernic and Windsor PGM earnings when they ebb away 2 years from now. There won’t be another BMR where they survive a license revocation and grind down a smaller company with tailings but no earnings. BMR 2 will be far more expensive and risky to pull off and will refocus attention on how little money JLP make from processing net of ALL costs, i.e acquiring tailings, building plant, interest at double digit rates, and paying tax in jurisdictions where they don’t have accumulated losses, e.g. Zambia. Jubilee is not an easy business to scale. To date it’s relied on doing bigger and bigger projects at the expense of exponentially more dilution. That model is not sustainable. Their core business Hernic was originally a 30% profit on a £13m capital investment so about £4m of actual profit. Even ignoring how many years of £4m a year central costs shareholders would have had to pay to see Hernic through, it was a pathetic profit for such a risky venture set against a backdrop of a business rescue, dam breach, a weak SA economy, and low PGM prices (initially). The share price raced to a multiple of the real NPV of Hernic and surprise surprise JLP couldn’t wait to spend equity, time and time again, all the way down. 1,855m shares in issue and counting. What JLP do is NOT an easy way to make money. DCM losses and the collapse of Windsor Chrome earnings in Q2 19 demonstrate that. Keeping on good terms with the Zambian government also won’t be easy either as Glencore and Vedanta found out. JLP is a growth trap that has sucker punched gullible investors for 17 years. If you went back to any one of those years since 2002, you’d see investors talking about JLP multi-bagging. They’ve been wrong time and time again. Nothing is different this time. JLP will never be able to cheaply, quickly, and reliably replicate what they do enough times to grow EPS consistently. It will eventually fail or they will continue peddling the dream of expensive alchemy and end up with a trillion shares in issue.
niloc4: The share price is being held back. THATS OBVIOUS. A big issue is coming. The share price cannot move up. Leon, you and Noel are the problem with the demise of the share price.
goldibucks: “you have to admit that the story becomes even more compelling with a sustained rise in basket price.” Do you understand how little the price of PGMs support Jubilee’s market cap and that if it goes up Jubilee make more from Hernic in the short term but it just brings forward when the 85% share kicks in so all they benefit from is a slightly thicker 15% tail but you’re talking hundreds of thousands a year and not millions which is a fraction of 0.1p on the share price if you break it down? All PGMs do is make JLP more on Windsor PGMs when Northan finally get round to processing them. Shard put an NPV of only £9m on Windsor PGMs our of their £100m March 18 target. That’s 0.5p of the current 2.85p share price so PGMs have to go through the roof to make any material difference to the share price. How can you hold an investment in a company and not understand the commodity prices driving it (lead, zinc, vanadium and chrome). Sylvania benefit from higher PGM prices because that’s all they do and there is no 85% share kicking in on their current PGM production in 2 years.
nelson01: Jlp share price will suddenly explode just the same as palladium, gold and silver. Nothing happens for years then all of a sudden it’s like letting a cork out of a champagne bottle.Look at silver, why is it worth 30% more the just a few weeks ago, it Always been worth today’s price and a lot more, that’s how markets work....mark my words,Within a few months this will double.
goldibucks: 3 comments about the PGM price. Firstly for Hernic, a higher PGM price just speeds up when the 85% share kicks in, there is little long term benefit to JLP other than the 15% tail being worth more but that’s peanuts. Secondly for Windsor PGMs, Shard valued it at an NPV of £9m, less than 10% of their target market cap. To get a 0.3p increase in the current share price, or about £5.6m of market cap, you are going to need a huge increase in PGM prices. Most of Shards’s JLP market cap target came from Kabwe and the price of vanadium pentoxide has fallen by 2/3 but nobody mentions that on a daily basis. Finally, JLP managed not to develop or sell their 67% of Tjate with higher PGM prices so you’d be brave to speculate on that changing. Basically, chrome, zinc, lead, and vanadium prices are 10 times more important to JLP than PGMs but nobody reports those prices.
goldibucks: Sold another 750k at 2.8p-2.84p. Don’t think there was a single buy today. Somebody knocked out 560k late in the day at 2.7p. Think the share price will settle at 2.5p-2.6p which is a market cap of around £46m-£48m. “Hernic rescue process will not affect JLP.” I don’t agree with this comment Sleveen. If the Samancor purchase of Hernic collapsed and Mitsubishi put it into administration, the liquidator may decide it’s in Hernic’s interests to let JLP carry on processing to get their 85% profit share but if penalties were mounting they could also breach the contract and let JLP put in a claim as an unsecured creditor which they may get nothing back from to force JLP to agree a new deal or earlier share. If JLP had to provide against the chrome in the Windsor tailings at 30 June 2019, Hernic must be feeling the pinch. Presumably, the SA government could put pressure on Eskom to agree a deal with Samancor to keep Hernic open and save jobs. JLP should reintroduce quarterly production data reporting at Q3 19 by project rather than by metal. Maybe they could also reconcile project earnings from one quarter to the next by project to build trust. I don’t think half year reporting only is in anybody’s interests. Institutions with access to inside information still need liquidity and they won’t get it unless everybody can make informed decisions.
goldibucks: “But that's mining, JLP don't do mining.” I appreciate without a mining fixed cost base JLP will lose less but if the price of chrome concentrate falls and JLP have already had to write the value of their chrome in tailings down, they are going to cop it. As a processor you don’t expect to lose money and as Q2 showed it’s possible when you hold the stock on your Balance Sheet. “I want to know what exactly Goldi was expecting out of DCM and hernic?” I was expecting fine chrome ramp up to turn the recent DCM quarterly losses into a profit and although they didn’t disclose either way, I interpret a lack of separate disclosure to suggest it didn’t. On Hernic, I expected the same ounces production as previously with the increase in the PGM basket price washing through to project earnings. I wasn’t expecting power outages to affect Q2 for Hernic so I was expecting a big step up from the £1.9m earnings they reported for Q1. People on this board had been predicting £3m-£4m for Q2. They did about £2.2m, pretty much the same as Q4 18 in spite of a much higher PGM basket price. They say they had a backdated employee cost, I’d have expected them to have provided for that and for it not to impact Q2 project earnings as much as it seems to have. “A lot of respect has been lost... Just be honest, people are fools if they think they can move markets by having opinions that are contrarian to their actions”. I don’t post for respect but if I was a neutral I’d be more interested in a poster who changed their views from time to time since company news flow runs hot and cold. I don’t have any expectations that my selling or views would move the price. However, I know there are other investors out there who will interpret the H1 19 results the same way I did. They will see them the same way as me automatically without me posting anything. I’ve always reported my buys and sales pretty much the day I traded and I’ve never said one thing here and traded the opposite way. When I bought a lot of JLP at 2.2p-2.3p earlier in the year there was hardly any volume and again I said what I’d bought and set out my logic for buying which at the time was driven by the Windsor Chrome acquisition and the statutory profit they were heading for. It was no coincidence that the share price rose in line with the H1 19 project earnings before falling back so the call I made was spot on. I funded 2m of the shares I bought at the bottom with debt so I needed to get it right. Had Windsor Chrome just doubled up on Q1 19 in Q2 19 I would have continued holding all of my shares in spite of DCM and Hernic flatlining. Every time I’ve sold a chunk of my JLP, I’ve called the next price trend correctly. I never sell on a whim. It’s always because I don’t like the numbers. I think the share price will drift on the H1 19 results. Volumes will be low, it will edge up 0.2p-0.3p every time they update and then fall, pretty much what happened in Q2. I can’t see it getting much above 3p unless there is a new project without a placing. The question is whether PlatCro PGM share will ramp up faster than PlatCro Chrome falls. I think it will fall but accept that they may have taken the stock provision to protect H2 19. I think that scenario is less likely because I don’t think they would have been that fussed about protecting H2 19 with PlatCro PGM share kicking in and then not having to report any numbers until Feb 2020 if they didn’t want to. My guess is Saffery Champness got them to book the stock provision as part of their interim review which is why Jubilee’s comments about Windsor Chrome up to early June were inconsistent with the result eventually reported. Another concern I have is that the Hernic sale could fall through and the mine might close. The business rescue has been going on for nearly 2 years now and Samancor don’t appear to able to agree terms with Eskom on the electricity supply. The wording of their monthly updates is getting more and more desperate. May just be trying to extract the best deal on the electricity supply but the temporary scale down from 1 Jun - 31 Aug could become more serious and affect JLP’s tailings supply.
timhigginson: Goldibucks is correct. Without Kabwe and the additional Platcro the share price would probably be 5p now. The reson is that the cureent cashflow would be very positive and JLP could show that Platcro could come on and be very accretive. What has happened is that existing shareholders have lost about 30% of their then value for earnings (Kabwe) which are not yet visible and won't be for sometime yet. We cannot know what JLP could have got into if it was not involved with Kabwe. All we can hope for is that no other deals get proposed involving share issues until the share price recovers to a level of say 6p being justified by proven earnings and cashflow.Shard told us that no further shares were planned to be issued and Leon told us that share buybacks would be done in the last quarter of the year. Lets hope both these statements turn out to be true.Meanwhile the market seems to have a very reserved view of JLP and its progress.The tax issue in Z has not yet been properly defined so if the tax rate turned out to be 40% the project might not be as profitable as expected. Lets see the results for yr to 30.06.19 whereafter the year to 30.0620 should be fairly easy to project At that point the FCL should dictate the level of Capex with which to take on the next project. The chrome earnings and DCM PGMs should be coming solidly into view shortly.
goldibucks: "Sable is the monetization of JLP's intellectual property." Pie in the sky Plat! :-) I'm not convinced they have any intellectual property. If they did, they wouldn't need to dilute shareholders to buy tailings (Platcro PGMs, Kabwe), acquire plant (Sable), or buy earnings (Platcro chrome). They could offer their services to 100s of miners in return for access to tailings with the miner funding CAPEX, and take an X% share of profits when costs have been recovered. They said they were showcasing fine chrome and tendering for waste portfolio management contracts in January but nothing has been announced. That seems to be how things have rolled for 17 years. All talk, no delivery. Their business model (for the last 5 years) has been to buy tailings and processing plant using shares and debt whilst taking years to make money from it. To profit from that you have buy into the fatigue it causes and wait for existing earnings to get annualised and the pipeline to turn into earnings (if it ever does). The monetization of patience! :-) I don't agree with either the extreme bear or bull arguments on JLP. The bears won't accept that earnings get annualised, pipelines turns into earnings, and they might end up making more than the value of initial dilution and debt from projects like Kabwe. On the flipside, I don't see JLP the way Losta sees it, about to ten bag. On the their current trajectory, that's not going to happen. They don't have the business model for it. At best, they could start funding projects from existing cash flows but they take years to get a project up-and-running and while they are doing that the market will deduct what they spend from their market capitalisation while disregarding earnings more than 12 months out. I think Kabwe will only take JLP to 4p-5p. Having to pay 35%-40% tax will kill the golden goose. The temptation will be to transfer price profits back to the UK or SA to use accumulated losses but that risks a spat with the Zambian government. For JLP to grow the market capitalisation beyond £100m they need to do 6 things; 1) Stop issuing shares and start selling intellectual property (if they have any, I don't think they do) 2) Fund new projects 100% from cash flow (to capture the financing margin they are currently leaking). 3) Acquire tailings they can process through existing plant or plant they can use to process existing tailings (having to buy both for each new project kills margins and drags out timelines) 4) Reduce the time it takes to process tailings from acquisition to less than 12 months (unless they can do this new projects will continue to be a drag on the share price). 5) Improve the quality of their financial reporting. It's inconsistent (quarterly to monthly to quarterly to six monthly in the last 12-18 months), poor quality (the last 2 project updates have been dire and impossible to forecast anything from). They should be reporting earnings by project for each quarter to calendarised dates. 6) Improve the quality of their communication. Director's Talk is amateurish ("what's next for Jubilee Leon"), Leon is wooden ("of course there's the vanadiums, the leads, the zincs". The only useful source of information about Jubilee are the the Shard notes and we get those 1-2 months after they get published.
Jubilee Metals share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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