Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 21/11/2019 21:55

Oili. You are roght. As is Mark. It’s a Trin thing. Sentiment. And selling. Selling happens for lots of reasons.
I was talking only moments ago to member of my family about late July 2017 9.8p
10.8p in Dec 2018
9p now
The company is in a better place than ever.seriously. The market does not teflect this at all.Sellers have had tgeir reasons and effects. Trinity have also contributed to their own demise by not admitting( still!) how the market has changed in the last 8-9 years and does not follow old and outdated modi operandi. A solid and reliable buyback WOULD have a potentially long term effect . Or a dividend. Sentiment matters. Trust matters. As does lack of trist and feeling neglected. These are things that are enormously real but the company refuses to respect or honour or take as relevant. They are almost an irritation to be ignored. At a cost!! You can have the best value and best laid out shopnin the mall, but if it doesn’t treat its customers as of value it is likely not to be frequented. And walked past . As here. Trin have a magnificently efficient operation . But they refuse to learn about human relations and how the present day market REALLY works. It’s not just about production. Nor SPT management. Nor cash generation and accretion. It should be!! But it’s also about people feeling valued as investors. Sometimes the truth hurts. And sometimes there are none so blind as those who will not see.
This might answer your question Prince. Maybe.
Yes Oili. M and A ( not misery and apathy!) or a buyback ( refused) or a dividend ( mentioned in Manchester yesterday. All ways of rebuilding credibility where it has been lost. And it has...whether they want to recognize it or not.
People..process..production. People please.
The company per se is in a very very very good place with a rock-solid balance sheet.
Now let’s open our minds to reasons for the share price drop please Trin.
Not Green support. Not SPT. Not WTI. Not fund redemptions( although there have been some). NO.
Loss of faith in being valued as an investor. We are not remote institutions nor rich dabblers ( apart from one or two on board recently)
Easily remedied Trin.
Rebuild by intervention.
Or M and A
Now there may be things we don’t know about as the ground is changing swiftly in Trinidad and Trin is in a great position to take advantage with cash and a solid balance sheet. But Trin has always prided itself on taking ALL stakeholders into account.
Time for the little man who holds shares?

[marvelman] 21/11/2019 21:42

Well at least we won't be affected by The Revolutionary Labour Party taxing TRIN in order that it can be redistributed to the Prolatariat...the T & T Government has already got there first.

[oilinvestoral] 21/11/2019 20:29

Very good point Nocents! It's unbelievable that shares are trading where they are given the financial and operational progress made in the last 24 months! This has to turn soon! I like the sound of M&A ! That could be one way to get us out of this rut we're in!

[mark10101] 21/11/2019 20:29

One word, optimism, also known as sentiment. It may come back on its own now oil has broken out, or the management may deliver an RNS that reinvigorates things.

[sonie01] 21/11/2019 20:29

Manipulation by the MMs

[princebuster2] 21/11/2019 20:17

Can anyone try to explain this to me please? ‘Same price 3yrs ago saddled with debt and oil at $40’

[nocents] 21/11/2019 19:04

$58.41 Is promising. Resistances broken. Probably temporary and will be suppressed but the trend as yet is up even if the oil bears are shouting louder.
We were at the same proce of 9p 3 yrs ago sadlled with debt and oil at $40.
It’s a Trin thing.

[spellbrook] 21/11/2019 18:38

Oil pushing north $58.50 , can we hit $60

[otemple3] 21/11/2019 16:03

It does seem to have switched to a steady uptrend since the beginning of the month - question is can wti get past $60 (and hold!)

[spellbrook] 21/11/2019 15:49

Oil having a look at $58

[otemple3] 21/11/2019 14:15

Welcome back MT - whilst your postings are not everyone's cup of tea you have a good track record (JSE/ CKN/ SOLG/ TXP) and undoubtably the risk reward from this point is skewed heavily in our favour so your re-investment makes sense. Hopefully for all of us you have called the bottom!! Whilst the day to day work the management team are doing is clearly improving the business, it doesn't currently excite the market. I am hoping Bruce et al have a rabbit or two lined up to reinvigorate the share price and maximise the operational skills / tools they have developed (SCADA / HAW etc). Yesterday's presentation slides see to suggest taking over assets or M&A but haven't heard a recording so not sure exactly what they have said. JSE have just shown what can be done and Bruce needs to use his contacts and reputation to deliver the same....

[mount teide] 21/11/2019 13:37

From an earlier post: 'In this post IMO 2020 scenario the economies of scale and grade of a crude oil that will be potentially less attractive to buyers is unlikely to be encouraging for both demand and pricing - suggesting that in 2020 T&T oil producers may find themselves at a disadvantage to their historical oil sales export market position - something the equity market may be increasingly pricing into company valuations.'

Markets dislike uncertainty - and usually price in uncertainty until proven otherwise.

I'm not expecting the T&T refinery to re-open in 2020 but increasingly think the performance of the global economy in what will be a US election year, could well deliver a 5%-10% increase in the average oil price over 2019 - this would certainly help to minimise the potential impact of IMO 2020 on T&T oil production and exports.

AIMHO/DYOR

[marvelman] 21/11/2019 13:01

nocents...your a mind of information...from classics to Lewis Caroll to German classics...I have bought a copy of Hans Fallada's book today...looks a very good read although my German is not at the level to appreciate the original..hence translated version it will have to be.

[oilinvestoral] 21/11/2019 12:26

Thanks MT... understood! Still doesn't answer the key question. You were posing the crude quality as a reason not invest in TRIN. Yet you have used your own moolah to buy 149,000 little magic beans! Why? Crude quality is still the same. Nothing has changed since a few days ago...

[mount teide] 21/11/2019 12:16

oilAL - IMO 2020 / I actually suggested that for the majority of T&T's oil production, the introduction of the low sulphur fuel oil regulations by the IMO for the global shipping industry, would likely negatively impact pricing with respect to the historic discount to light sweet crude, not destroy it!

The industry view, which is increasingly being reflected in pricing in the run up to IMO 2020, is that the demand for heavy sweet and light sweet crudes will increase while demand for heavy sour and medium API/medium sulphur crude will reduce.

Premium light sweet crudes like Australian Cooper Basin (API 42 / 0.01% Sulphur) are currently attracting an $8.25 premium to Brent from $2 in Jan 2019, while heavy sweet(low sulphur) crudes like the Indonesian Duri grade has flipped from a $9 discount to Brent in August 2019 to an $8 premium today.


MM - thanks.

[nocents] 21/11/2019 12:02

Nothing has changed except the price has conveniently dipped on sentiment. Funny that! It’s the sulphur I tell you.( like mercury in the hatters’ felt). Look it up..Alice in Wonderland’s character was based on the grim effects of the mercury. It’s the sulphur...or......the price has dropped on fuelled low sentiment(?)
Darn that cynic in me.

[marvelman] 21/11/2019 11:37

Needless to say MT....welcome back

[oilinvestoral] 21/11/2019 11:12

Wellcome aboard MT. So let me get this straight: IMO 2020 was potentially going to destroy TRIN when you posted here at 9.5p a few days ago but has very little impact now at 8.95p? You raised some good points imo2020 last week and received thumbs up from a few people. If you can just clarify that would be great. What has changed?

[nocents] 21/11/2019 11:11

I think the morning mist has too high a sulphur content and it’s got to you...:-)

[mount teide] 21/11/2019 10:50

Bought a few back over the last week with a final 149k this morning - on the basis that this is now very oversold and the risk/reward at 8.94p looks far more attractive than at 16.5p, regardless as to the potential impact of IMO 2020 over the longer term.

Should the management get the share price back to where they elected to raise circa £20m in a hugely discounted placing that resulted in £130k of my paper profit disappearing faster than morning mist, I may at least get some of it back.

[nocents] 20/11/2019 23:06

Thankfully final comment.
Do they want the price down here perhaps? Just befuddled.
End
I wish all ungodly patient holders the best.

[nocents] 20/11/2019 22:50

their reasons

[nocents] 20/11/2019 22:50

It is not an institutional seller involved here. I am party to that fact. I am acquainted with some who sold very heavily today and tgeircreasons. It might be helpful to know that. Instis have deep pockets.
Selling begets selling.

[princebuster2] 20/11/2019 21:29

Boom! And there it is! 8 reached! Feb 2017 price. Good work Trin. Why stop here..lets go lucky 7!?!