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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity Exploration & Production Plc | TRIN | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 68.00 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.00 | 68.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| OIL & GAS PRODUCERS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 31/8/2024 19:18 by pavey ark "Trin carry a lot of offshore risk/ cost."My comment about limited risk refers to the value of TRIN shares and not to any drilling/capex risk. I have not included the Galeota development /cost/potential in my post or risk assessment. With any sort of managed decline of 7-8% TRIN would produce over 4m barrels of oil over the next five years without developing Galeota ....I would suggest that TXP are rather dependent of a successful outcome of their recent drilling programme and therefore a more risky proposition. The rather stark fact that seems to be overlooked/ignored is that there is a cash offer of 68p on the table. However my views may be influence by the fact that I hold TRIN shares. (Trin have spent a considerable amount of cash on upgrading their offshore assets including expensive new storage facilities and have made abandonment provisions.) |
Posted at 22/8/2024 19:58 by nocents The present stalemate is damaging to both companies. Both share prices are reflecting this. If Txp wait until Cascadura results and they turn out not to be blindingly good then this will strengthen Trinity’s case. But do Txp want to wait that long and take that risk? Trinity offers oil, cash , cash generation and assets which could be sold or used against some tax. Seems to me Txp are weaker without Trin than vice versa as they are relying on good results, a lack of decline in production, and they have debt where Trin do not. Walking a fine line.Lol are funding this with debt but Trin can service that debt just as they could with Txp. I still stand by my enormous confusion about all this and the potential solution. Stalemate! |
Posted at 10/8/2024 21:55 by arlington chetwynd talbott Ab76 - all those second chances that you gave the awful TRIN BoD, even when others were asking for your help to move against them, and now, when your long suffering fellow shareholders are looking to go risk off, you are going to do everything you can to keep them risk on?You seem to have ideas about valuations that are frankly naive. Can you not see that AIM companies like TRIN and TXP are all about trajectory? Valuations are virtually meaningless. Neither TRIN nor TXP are currently on a good trajectory. In the case of TRIN this has been apparent for quite some time. The shine has only come off TXP more recently. Take your chance to cut your TRIN losses. Do not increase them. |
Posted at 10/8/2024 07:40 by che7win Andrew,Brilliant post. I will give my less well informed thoughts with my albeit TXP viewpoint below. On Touchstone switching to a deal, they may well do this, but I don't see the need for them to do so at this time. The only reason why they might do this is to force through the deal before the long stop date, but after Cascadura 3 & 4 results are known. From my point of view, Trinity directors have now given TXP a put and call option on TRIN assets. 1. If Cascadura 3 & 4 results are great (as we expect), TXP don't need to do anything, the TXP share price will respond higher. Getting to 46p (10% higher than on day TXP announced proposed acquisition of TRIN) would be the sweet spot, sufficient to make TXP the better deal and (hopefully) TRIN reinstate the court case for TXP acquisition completion and the majority of shareholders from both companies to be reasonably happy in relation to this acquisition. 2. If they are stunningly good, there is the option/risk that TXP might walk away and avoid the dilution of acquiring TRIN altogether. Maybe this is what LOL as outsiders to the takeover of TRIN assets hope for? Let's say the TXP share price rises to 60p in response, TRIN share price would be 90p, TXP shareholders in this case might well lobby their board to break out of the deal as the prospect of 25% dilution becomes too much. Why would TXP shareholders want to share tremendous Cascadura upside? TXP could at this point withdraw their deal and TRIN is left with the inferior LOL deal and the risk that it drags on or isn't approved by Trinidad authorities down the line. 3. If the results of Cas 3 & 4 are less good (or TXP share price doesn't rise sufficiently before long stop date) and TXP still want TRIN, then they might go the Contractual takeover route. This needs to be voted in and there is risk that it might not go through. Other thoughts: The chances of TXP raising their bid is slim to none. Maybe they might given TRIN shareholders some cash back from the TRIN balance sheet, but why would they? The deal on the table from TXP is sufficiently generous to make any higher offer unattractive to TXP. It’s an unknown on what TXP shareholders think on the TRIN takeover. Many didn’t want this deal before Cascadura 3 & 4 provide the upside to the share price. So they might not vote for the deal. TXP management equally should have tested Cas wells 3 & 4 earlier in the year if they were intending to acquire TRIN, it’s a gap to me. I suspect TXP management made TRIN an acquisition at the 19.9% level - the best they could - to avoid TXP shareholders being required to vote on the deal. Personally, I would not vote on any enhanced offer from TXP to TRIN shareholders. The EGM option is a difficult one, it hinges on: 1. one’s thoughts on the Cas 3 & 4 results as this is the key and pivot point here. 2. The thoughts of the majority of TRIN shareholders. I have sufficient concerns, that apart from some TRIN shareholders such as you and Nocents, there are quite a few thinking that TRIN are in a good position here with two approaches on the table. How many TRIN shareholders want to retain upside to their assets and share in Cascadura and long term prospects rather than cash offer? 3. What would TXP leadership think, would they be supportive, they are in the driving seat thanks to this situation. Maybe they’re happier to wait… 4. Timing - is there enough time for an EGM before say end of September or sooner? Or is a later EGM going to be effective? So TXP are in the driving seat now, and thanks to TRIN directors, they can walk away if upcoming Cascadura results beat market expectations. There is risk here that the TXP offer for TRIN that was on the table may be lost and in hindsight will look extraordinarily generous. Which is why I find it hard to see why that the market is reading events different from me. I don't think the TRIN share price is taking accounts of the downside risks that LOL approach has presented. |
Posted at 09/8/2024 18:00 by nocents The problem with TXP is that they need what Trinity has and is. They are not a stonking buy as they are. They have debt and Cascadura( as we know from both 3 conventional and one deep well drill) can never be deemed a dead cert. Such is the oil and gas business. Txp need Trin’s cash, cash generation, oil per se, and assets to offset tax, in order to make their original deal good value and in order to move on more steadily as a company. The opex savings themselves are millions!! Goodbye Trin BOD and NED’s, one AIM fee of $500k etc. Txp will suffer as a company without Trin. That’s why the share price is staying so low, and one cannot count on it recovering in a rush if Trin wriggle out of this and if Cascadura is not top-notch. Eventually by all means. But Trin really have shoved a weird spanner in the works here. Txp may have to match the cash offer or languish. All just my opinion. By all means disagree-is ok. |
Posted at 06/8/2024 19:19 by nocents LOL are borrowing almost all the funds needed and own some shares but just $2m towards it.Trin will be run on debt. The govt. needs more oil. Well Services have equipment of course but where is the drilling campaign like TXP clearly has? To run a company that provides 5% of T and T’s oil on debt?? Trin nearly went down in 2016 because debt was recalled. In 2015 the govt. refused TXP’s offer to purchase particular wells due to their perceived instability at the time. TXP is committed to expansion. There is no information on LOL’s plans. Why should the govt. permit private ownership of 5% of its oil?! Based on debt. Brash would make money on his shares and pocket Trin’s profits, but what does he owe the govt?? Elections are soon I believe. Messrs Imbert, Colm and Stuart are VERY possessive of T and T’s assets. I could say more. The problem is not whether my argument is agreed with, it is that the risk exists in the first place. N.B. Trin want the LOL deal to go through so they have not mentioned this. Govt. approval is not a cert. How can it be? Let us not forget that the whole affair is a leverage upon TXP, as Malcy mentioned. TXP need Trin in order to ease debt and fund gas and oil. Trin’s offshore assets can also be sold off. So Trin is very valuable to TXP. How valuable? We will see. Txp will not flourish fully without Trin to be sure. |
Posted at 06/8/2024 09:16 by aqc888 If txp have an upcoming success as expected at Cascadadura, TRIN can accept the txp deal. The TXp price will be much higher, as it was when the deal was announced, it is a bit worrying the market has punished TXP share price so much lately, the same happened when we were all waiting for Jacobin results, which were a failure… If not they can go with lol.It’s certainly not the way you’d want to ideally treat someone, and txp will be spitting feathers over this. However, TRIN advisors and large shareholders will be working on a plan that is advantageous to TRIN shareholders and TRIN shareholders alone. I’d imagine in a country of only 1.5m people. With the oil sector being a micro community within that, there will be many details, personalities, rivalry’s, etc. Things we outsiders will be a lot less well informed of. What makes me comfortable in all this, is that the TRIN share price is holding up remarkably well. Which makes me think things are in play that we are not fully aware of yet. We are effectively gambling on the future successes of TXP. Whereby we can walk off to lol at no cost if txp Cascadura ends in failure, (long date 25/1/25). Or if Cascadura ends in success we can jump onboard the txp bandwagon… It seems an ok situation for us TRIN shareholders to be in… |
Posted at 06/8/2024 07:43 by che7win Nocents,It's disgusting behaviour, as on a technicality, TRIN could destroy upside for TRIN shareholders. By that, I mean that TRIN could delay the court case sanction for TXP deal past the long stop date and nullify the TXP deal. THEY ARE NOT aligned to shareholders anymore, as they are benefiting by drawing salaries whilst this debacle continues. They should have been out by now, maybe some of them get a golden handshake if LOL deal goes through. What they are doing is taking away what is potential multiple times upside for shareholders - with TXP - for the LOL offer which could fall and has risk attached. I wish I still had exposure, I would have pledged my allegiance to TXP. The reason I don't is that I can't be out of TXP and not have the upside exposure. Anyone with Andrews viewpoint should actively email both companies and pledge your shares to the TXP deal. Whether I was a TRIN shareholder, TXP shareholder or both, my view has been consistent, this is a good deal for all sides. If TXP don't get TRIN, it won't be so bad for TXP, but I'll feel very sorry for TRIN shareholders who deserved to recover their losses and more. The concern is if anyone here wants to have TXP exposure at low prices, they might miss the boat if LOL deal wins the day. |
Posted at 03/8/2024 13:09 by aqc888 Perhaps if TXP allow Trinity to make a special dividend to their shareholders before the merger, it would be a way of sweetening the deal without the need for an EGM. As I’ve said before it’s Trinity’s experienced M&A advisors Houlihan Lokey negotiating this, not Trinity directors… Which gives me confidence this is not incompetence but that everything is in order. Negotiations are happening and Trinity shareholders are benefiting from each improved bid. Houlihan Lokey have earned more than their fee for Trinity shareholders from the improved LO bid. Hopefully more offers will follow. |
Posted at 02/8/2024 09:23 by che7win Today’s news is very disappointing, I am aligned with Andrew’s viewpoint here.There were genuine benefits for TRIN tie up with TXP. 68.5p seems like a great price, but it’s fixed and final for TRIN shareholders, a disappointing end to TRIN with no upside for anyone that valued the assets going forwards. I’ve been selling some of TRIN for the past week and moving to TXP. Today’s news makes the decision clear for me, sold all remaining TRIN shares and rebought TXP. I have outlined in more detail on Discord TXP thread so won’t repeat here, only to say this is sad news today. I might see some of you around elsewhere, TRIN acquisition is still possible by TXP if TXP share price recovers - or unlikely….a higher offer happens (now hope not). |
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