Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[spellbrook] 14/11/2019 10:49

Today’s buyers make money

[pavey ark] 14/11/2019 10:07

otemple3, I have a science degree so I like real numbers.
Have a couple of pals who were senior accountants and their catchphrase was always "what would you like the number to be".
They were expensive but I suspect they could produce the correct numbers.

[oilinvestoral] 14/11/2019 09:40

I haven't read any recent report from WH or others . Have that's stated that well costs are now 800k and 1.3m?

[otemple3] 14/11/2019 09:26

Interesting post PA - am hoping to get a chance to play around with some numbers over the next few days (I enjoy it far less but that's probably because I work in Finance!) so will see what I come up with. Really hoping the poor (imho) TXP update results in a positive move for us as our financials are better appreciated, rather than being dragged down by association.....

[pavey ark] 14/11/2019 08:58

otemple3,
Great post, great info, well spotted.

[otemple3] 14/11/2019 08:49

Great read across from DGOC today ref SCADA:"Our Smarter Well Management efforts continue to deliver outstanding results with production from our legacy assets at approximately 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, nearly identical to the equivalent production 16 months ago and nearly 7% better than the expected performance of these wells over that period of time."

[nocents] 13/11/2019 23:00

Should just cover my £8 for the Cenkos report :-/

[mark10101] 13/11/2019 22:29

Yes I know, but $13m is more than $11.3m given in July so still good, and we have the extra SCADA investment. So better than I was expecting end of year.

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 22:11

Mark: PA is saying we are reading the report wrong it is in $ - forecasts have reduced since July

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 22:08

Hi PA: just to clarify, the numbers quoted are the year end estimates so are showing increased outflows Vs the two previous forecasts - they are not the cash balances at that point in time which your message infers

[oilinvestoral] 13/11/2019 21:34

There should be an investor conference in Edinburgh tomorrow. Hopefully that will allow us to get enough new interest to push us above the 10p resistance. Fingers crossed eh...

[mark10101] 13/11/2019 20:46

Hi PA, yes as you point out the cash levels are good with the current level of investment happening. EOY cash is acceptable even if in $’s as still better than forecast in July. The cash build the first half this years shows what TRIN can do.

SCADA is an exciting and worthwhile project. I too heard Bruce say several hundred old wells could be brought back online with SCADA.

[pavey ark] 13/11/2019 20:20

Mark: thanks

On the matter of cash estimate by Cenkos it looks like $13m (G&A figure below it is 5.6m and that must be in $) and although I guesstimated $15m in a previous post the figure of $13m gives me no concern.

Cenkos are counting at least 5 or more wells drilled AND a rollout of SCADA equipment And the usual work overs and well work.

Simple economics (arithmetic) dictates that the cash must dip before additional revenue kicks in.

from the above posts: if July cash was $14.9 and all this Capex is used then $13m cash points to serious cash generation in the rest of the business.

On the matter of the SCADA gear from Weatherford I have not the slightest clue about the cost but the initial rollout (30 wells ???)seemed to be a no-brainer. In a Q and A session BD did say that they were looking at perhaps bringing previously uneconomic wells back into production but I suspect the great care is due to the less definite advantage to be had, in his example he was suggesting figures like 5bpd to 10bpd

As I said, I think the first batch look to be very clear cut so things should be very interesting as he did quote 10, 20, 30% increase with one of the trial wells giving a 50% increase but immediately following this with the caveat that "all wells are different"

[nocents] 13/11/2019 18:41

Oili £8 for 3 chosen stocks

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 18:14

Mark, just looked at the July table and it shows cash of 12.3 plus funds due from petrotrin of 2.6 so 14.9. Assume it is $ and it converts to c. £11.3m so I am totally confused!!

[pavey ark] 13/11/2019 18:11

Mark, sent you a message.

[oilinvestoral] 13/11/2019 18:08

Guys how much does research tree cost per month ?

[mark10101] 13/11/2019 17:53

I was shocked by the July $11.3m tweet CENKOS put out and has been a concern for me, much much more comfortable with closing at $16.6M and hit an exit of 3400bopd!

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 17:48

Crossed over but that was exactly how I determined it was £

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 17:47

Mark, just looked back and it is significantly up on the July note but slightly down from the Sept note which stated £13.9m. Have to say currency is not clear in the table but does look to be £ not $ to me

[mark10101] 13/11/2019 17:46

Excellent, I am presuming the cash is stated in £ as it is how they calculate their 37p share price. That is great to see.

[otemple3] 13/11/2019 17:37

Mark - 3rd line from bottom on page 3 unless I am misreading it?

[nocents] 13/11/2019 17:34

PA
Email Mark