Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 14:11

Cascadura declines: Module 2

December last year:

“Touchstone continues to optimize Cascadura production volumes, with adjustments being made to the mechanical chokes which are constraining production in both wells. Through December 1 to December 17, 2023, Cascadura-1ST1 produced approximately 35.7 MMcf/d of gross field estimated natural gas volumes from the upper overthrust sheet while Cascadura Deep-1 contributed approximately 11.4 MMcf/d of gross field estimated natural gas production from the lower overthrust sheet.”

astorcourt is right: cash is king.

[astorcourt] 26/7/2024 13:14

Let us unburden by what has been and move forward on what can be. cash is king. accept the cash, then buy txp if needed,.

[che7win] 26/7/2024 13:09

I happen to think I have a open mind.You may think TRIN is a basket case, but there is a growing queue of interested parties trying to get hold of the business.Maybe we get a third bidder over the weekend, ha

[aqc888] 26/7/2024 12:22

My break even is 69.5p. I think there’s a reason large oil companies have left and the Trinidad government has suddenly decided to reduce taxes and become helpful… because they know it’s a difficult and risky business drilling in Trinidad. It’s a poor region to invest in my opinion. A private operator will make a good living from Trinity, I don’t see txp ever making decent reliable returns for investors. An exit at 68p with hopefully a few further bids would be ideal

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 12:16

Cascadura declines: Module 1

September last year:

“Touchstone achieved its forecasted Cascadura gross natural gas production rate of 60 million cubic feet per day ("MMcf/d") on September 15, 2023. The Cascadura-1ST1 well is currently contributing approximately 40 MMcf/d while the Cascadura Deep-1 well is contributing approximately 20 MMcf/d of gross natural gas volumes. In addition, the wells are currently producing an aggregate 1,400 barrels per day of field estimated gross natural gas liquids volumes.”

Cash is king - whether the cash offer materialises or not, it will arguably have been a good thing if it kills the TXP deal.

[dunderheed] 26/7/2024 12:14

Same here but, aren't they the company farming out Balata East to TXP (maybe bad memory of course), in which case am concerned at how that will crystallise considering their behaviour re this situation?!

[nocents] 26/7/2024 11:53

My scepsis is directed at the cash offer. I personally doubt the offer will materialize.It may. But the whole thing reeks of ulterior motive.

[pavey ark] 26/7/2024 11:28

A 68p bid for TRIN is very close to $20m after cash (loan/vat refund/cash).

(one for Nafafa) if you give a production decline of 8% over five years you get close to 4m barrels produced....little cap ex, orderly decline.

If TXP was looking to make efficiency gains this also applies to the bidder so $20m is a steal and cash that could be raised very easily.

$68 wouldn't necessarily be the one and only ,final offer but will be if TXP cannot show that it can do what it is supposed to do and get production going.

There is obvious merit in the TXP deal IF IT CAN ACTUALLY GET THINGS DONE.....if not the $68 increased to $75 CASH looks good.

I struggle with the notion that the TXP is a good deal because the TXP shares will be worth more because of the great cash flow from a stripped down TRIN.....sold on the cheap !!??
EDIT :just checked...my break even is 80.25p

[nocents] 26/7/2024 11:01

The larger shareholders are around £1:10p breakeven. They bought at £1:60 in the 2018 Placing. Few will be under £1.
Does this offer, if ratified, need shareholder approval?
Govt. approval takes some time.
And Mr. Brash may not even be proven to have the cash.
It all seems smoke and mirrors to me.
No doubt the BOD will financially benefit whatever the findings. Perhaps that is what this is all about. Did the offer arrive on the 17th or was it already on the discussion table? Too late to be a surprise bid imo.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 10:59

It sounds like you have accepted rather uncritically everything the TRIN rampers have told you. Look more closely - TRIN is in fact a bit of a basket case. And tax losses are only of value to the extent that you have profits to set them against in the first place (and remember that these tax losses are not 100% allowable). Have you studied the trajectory of the Cascadura declines? TXP does not look like it is going to be majorly profitable anytime soon.Cash is king.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 10:52

Scepticism is rarely misplaced on AIM.

[aqc888] 26/7/2024 10:47

Touchstone shed a load of value when the deal was announced and then just shed a load more now the deal is looking shaky. Touchstone do have the option of putting an increased bid for Trinity to their shareholders. Personally I’ve had enough of the constant disappointments of Trinidad’s geology both txp and Turin have had. I’d be happy with a sale around 68p, which is around break even for me

[che7win] 26/7/2024 10:33

Yes, let their offer lapse and walk away from 130m tax losses avaliable, 1.5m cashflow per month, a business with 76p that their currently getting for 46p, the synergies saved, the offloading of offshore or JV, that would be clever.

[sleveen] 26/7/2024 10:28

Vexatious perhaps?

TXP should let their offer lapse.

[nafafa] 26/7/2024 10:25

Very little information available on LO, they seem to have done some contract drilling for other operators. Perhaps a front for the potential bidder, leaves me very sceptical.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 10:18

che7win, you are forgetting that the potential offer is in fact 68.05 pence per share.

What folk need to do to understand why TXP is not in fact currently undervalued is to study the trajectory of the Cascadura declines.

Cash is king.

[che7win] 26/7/2024 10:06

Yes sleepy, but though the acceptances would not be binding, it doesn’t mean that the voters would have changed their minds.
Nor does it mean that TXP would pull their offer, that would be unwise.
All it needs is for TXP share price to recover to 40p (worth TRIN share price of 60p) and that would see off this rival bid.

[sleepy] 26/7/2024 09:47

Ref 7765 - my understanding is that if LO make a 68p offer the irrevocable acceptances of the TXP bid will cease to be binding and fall away

[nocents] 26/7/2024 08:42

Regulatory approval just means that whatever happens, this will drag on. And salaries will be paid and paid and paid.
When BD and TM left, so did the honour and integrity.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 08:13

"However, upside for TRIN shareholders will be there if TXP vote goes through."And also significant downside, che7win. Cash is king.

[che7win] 26/7/2024 08:05

Thanks Andrew, You raise a good point, the directors should have already been through review and solicited other approaches.They must be if the view that LOP approach is credible.However, upside for TRIN shareholders will be there if TXP vote goes through. It's put up or shut up on 16th.

[nocents] 26/7/2024 07:47

I could say exactly the same as frequently getting emotional/annoyed/terse/sarcastic etc. about other posters. One rule for one?
We are entited to do the same.
Trins liturgy of failures and shareholder neglect are astounding.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/7/2024 00:38

“we receive undervalued Touchstone shares”

Ab76 - you said TRIN was undervalued all the way down and are now making the same mistake with TXP. Have you considered its ferocious declines and hit and miss geology? By taking the Lease Operators lifeline the appalling TRIN BoD would for once be doing the right thing - if it is genuine.

[pavey ark] 25/7/2024 23:49

Trin are not in a awkwardly place as they have cash and are trading profitably.....certainly could/should be doing much better but not in any trouble The board are legally required to consider ALL offers and have done nothing wrong ( for once)Some of these posts are reasonable and make valid points but it doesn't help anyone to exaggerate or get emotional just to make your case.