Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[oilinvestoral] 28/10/2019 14:05

Thanks no cents I respect your opinion ! These boards are for discussing both pros and cons and not just designed to ramp each other into an oblivion or buying frenzy! As mentioned here many times I've purchased 4 times this months to average down and have a positive view of the company! That doesn't mean I can't look at both pros and cons! The poster in question had the cheek to jump into a conversation urging others to ignore me! The best part was his logic / reasoning was that capitalised drillex moves onto the balance sheet! That was not the point in question we were talking about cash flow being negative! Not whether capex goes into balance sheet or not! And certainly not whether the company is profitable at 50 or 40 or not!

[nocents] 28/10/2019 13:51

Both of you. Decent people. Disagreeing is normal. Easy to do by text.
Cut slack both ways.
Best logic is sell if u don’t like and hold if u think market has it wrong. I am of the latter.
Hope we can leave a minor disagreement with neutrality if not loving respect :-)
In this bost together unless we sell out.
Me? I still see it as rock bottom bargain and to ognore researching and potentially buying is missing a steamer ( not a boat).
Enjoy of on hol. or work. Or whatever else.

[oilinvestoral] 28/10/2019 13:07

Yes great logic ! Point something out that the company themselves highlighted that is not rampy or to your liking and I am asked to sell! Ignorance is bliss! Enjoy the holls lol

[pavey ark] 28/10/2019 12:48

Been called many things but never a simpleton.On holiday at the moment so the last thing I want do do is engage with an aggressive pedant.Could repeat all the points that I and others have made to counter this continal rambling but can't see that working.To everyone else this is quite simple, if you thing this company is not to your liking sell, if you like it and think the market has it wrong buy more.It's not rocket science

[nocents] 28/10/2019 12:25

I can candidly say that if anyone had the money then mow would be the insanely perfect time to buy. I hear from and see so many people who buybon good news orca spike or a geopolitical drama etc. The boat has already left. Profit gone.
The best time to buy rock solid ( not dodgy) companies is at these times.
But generally speaking people don’t.
They buy too late and on high sentiment. Error.
I tend to sell too early oit of insecurity. But I certainly know all about buying on rock bottom sentiment. I’m blown away by those who sit on their hands and rub them in regret when it’s too late.
And moaning is ok. But to a limit.

[nocents] 28/10/2019 11:57

Meant without disrespect nor lack of understanding .

[nocents] 28/10/2019 11:53

Prince.
Please don’t fuel the fire.
We know how you feel.
Jeremy has a long term incentive plan.
Hence buying of shares is unnecessary.
I would also disagree about buying.
I would buy roght now. NAV is enormous. Lowest sentiment best time to buy into deeply undervalued stocks by Nav.
All complaining does is dter investors and shoot selves in foot.
On my losses it should be me complaining.

[oilinvestoral] 28/10/2019 11:40

You say : The company is saying that they can make money "down to the low 40 dollars"That's true but for the 4th and final time profitability and cash flow are 2 different things and if you don't understand the difference may be do some basic financial reading before attacking me!

[oilinvestoral] 28/10/2019 11:38

Pavey ark please don't be a simpleton! I'm not saying capex isn't capitalised in the company's balance sheet! That goes without saying ! I'm saying (no the company is saying they are cash flow negative at 50.1/bbl) ! That's a fact!

[princebuster2] 28/10/2019 10:56

Spell why would Jeremy buy shares..surely he sees what we see a share price dropping month on month and a company that has zero potential left proven by zero interest from investors

[pavey ark] 28/10/2019 10:16

When someone states that cash went down due to capex but ignores the company when they say that the capex shows in the accounts before the accrued benefits ( production) then perhaps it's time to simply ignore.The company clearly shows that the company is NOT cash flow positive at 50.1 dollars BUT shows in a rather convincing manner that this worst case cenario can/is being overcome and that these improvement are applicable over all prices.The company is saying that they can make money "down to the low 40 dollars"

[nocents] 27/10/2019 19:38

Absolutely.
Its 12 month historical path and growth trajectory should become much clearer by January.
After 6 years and all that it’s entailed ....can wait few more months.

[wwick] 27/10/2019 19:25

I ask myself when will TRIN attract investors and the answer I come to is this: when the stock is easy to understand in a traditional sense. We need a single clean full year of accounts from which investors can understand performance of the business. 2017 saw resumption of trading and 2018 saw a capital raise and debt payment, so not what I call a single clean full year of accounts. 2019 will be the first year.

[nocents] 27/10/2019 19:23

Oili . Rest assured that after all the calculations that there is no better company to handle the tax.
I won’t enter the number crunching. I’ll just say they know what they are doing.
SPT has always been here.
It’s only a problem when WTI is unfavourable.Even then it’s catered for.Control what you can and accept what you can’t control.
Trin is SPT agnostic.
I never expected it to change.
Others did.
I however expect it more to change from here than ever. It’s outdated inappropriateness is blatant.
I await Q4 results 2 1/2 months with interest.
Notwithstanding earlier RNS’s.

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 19:01

Not 59.1 but 50.1

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 18:55

Not looking for an argument ! It's clear for me also ! You're right it is a stress test that states that at $59.1/bbl WTI , the company is cash flow negative! They even coloured it in yellow so that those that don't understand can tell it's different from the other scenarios! I hold TRIN so you are preaching to the converted! The one thing that wasn't as clear to me when I invested was how atrocious this SPT is!

[wwick] 27/10/2019 18:24

Slide 6 is very clear, it is essentially a stress test and communicates that even in the very worst case TRIN generate cash. This is an extreme worst case to make a point, they are robust. The way I read the two graphics is this, look at the lower one, this says that with measures they have in place, at the worst possible oil price TRIN generate FCF of c. 2.3x. Now look at the top graphic. 2.3x FCF if they did not have these measures in place is equivalent to WTI at between $55 and $60 (bars 3 and 4).

[wwick] 27/10/2019 18:04

Just for fun, point me to the Q3 19 analyst's figure ("Yet the company still ended the quarter with less cash than anticipated.")

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 17:58

As for anticipated cash flow outcomes a good place to start (after the company website& reports) would be Whitman Howard or stockpedia

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 17:57

The magic price you're alluding to is $50.1/bbl WTI! Please read slide 6!

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 17:56

Anticipated by the analysts/ investment community as a whole. You may have your own expectations but it's analysts expectations that determine whether the price is red or green in the day of the results.

[wwick] 27/10/2019 17:53

If anyone is concerned there is a discrete price of oil which creates problems, yet above or below this price all is fine, I challenge you to pick an arbitrary price (46, 48, 50…..anything), go study historic price charts and count the proportion of days your chosen price was realised.

[wwick] 27/10/2019 17:31

"Yet the company still ended the quarter with less cash than anticipated." Please explain what was anticipated and by whom? Expectations are important and I have set mine out for year end. Thank you

[oilinvestoral] 27/10/2019 17:13

That's fair enough but the point being made was TRINs cash flow at 50.1/ bbl not 56/ bbl. also the capex assumption in Q3 are 2 months worth of capex and NOT quarterly CAPEX. I fully agree that at 56/bbl WTI TRIN should FCF but at 50/bbl the jury is out ! As per slide 6 of their presentation!

[wwick] 27/10/2019 17:02

Deep breath please. Eight wells "is a proxy" for a range of possible activities. In 2019 the range of activities includes 5 vertical wells and 1 HAW. Jeremy has said they will be generating FCF this year, earlier than previously hoped. Is this the case? Check yourself. - - At the end of 2018 cash balance was US$10.2 million. At the end of H1 2019 cash balance was US$17.8 million. That is a cash build of US$7.6 million over half a year with no drilling when the average WTI was US$56.3 and production averaged 3,008 bopd. - - What will H2 look like? We have Q3 results and so these along with H1 can be used to forecast H2, and the full year. Let us look in broad terms, from H1, cash generation was US$3.8 million per quarter. We could use this to forecast cash at the end of Q3, US$21.6 million, but we know that the actual cash was US$15.6 million due to the capex on 4 wells. The difference between our forecast (21) and actual (15) is US$6 million, or US$1.5 million on average per well (proxy). With two more wells in Q4 what will year end cash look like? Q3 cash + 3.8 (production) - 3 capex = US$16.4 million. - - - Is US$16.4 million (2019) greater than US$10.2 million (2018)? - - - Check! this could be misguiding if production is not sustained (cash build due to lack of investment). We have Q1,2 & 3 production = 3020 2996 2816. For Q4 we know October was 3017 and the target is to exit the year at 3400, so I approximate Q4 will be c. 3200. The average of the four quarters is 3010 (compared with 2871 for 2018). So in summary I expect cash to be up by many millions while investment has grown production year on year by more than 20% compared with 2017.