Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 14/3/2024 22:07

Sorry, I don't understand.

[aqc888] 14/3/2024 21:57

Act, your claimed message from sky ship seems to contradict his claimed holding on the other board…

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 14/3/2024 16:33

nocents - I think you are misremembering. Some of them became less bullish than formerly, but while a few of them may indeed now be out, the only one I can actually see saying that he has sold up is oilinvestorAL:

otemple3 was still posting back in October last year and was not then saying anything about selling or having sold;

SPELLBROOK was still posting back in May last year and was not then saying anything about selling or having sold;

Flagon was still posting back in October last year and was not then saying anything about selling or having sold;

lexus880 was still posting just last month and was not then saying anything about selling or having sold;

astorcourt was still posting back in August last year and was not saying anything about selling or having sold;

Gary1966 has not posted for about a year and a half but when he stopped posting was not saying anything about selling or having sold;

glennborthwick has not posted for nearly two years but when he stopped posting was not saying anything about selling or having sold;

Mustbefunny has not posted for nearly three years but when they stopped posting was not saying anything about selling or having sold; and

avsome1968 has not posted for over three years but when they stopped posting was not saying anything about selling or having sold.

These are just names that came to hand. There are others.

[sleepy] 14/3/2024 14:42

Any ideas on what they will do with the cash flow that they keep?

[nocents] 14/3/2024 12:47

Management have flushed cash down the pan.
But $70 realized price and $1m extra in one quarter is a bonus. The hedging was just unfortunate, even the dimwit top
politicos thought Putin was only bluffing.
Jacobin was an almighty screw-up with a loss of around $10m. It may pay back over many many years. The extra million does matter as it shows the influence of fiscal reform and zero SPT when below realized ave.$75.
To deprive shareholders of a 15% dividend demands removal of BOD forthwith and I hope this comes to pass if so.

[aqc888] 14/3/2024 11:50

To put management’s achievements, or otherwise, into quantitative figures would be interesting. If we added up the losses of hedging, jacobin etc. then added up all the positives (perhaps give them some credit for SPT reforms). I wonder how their performance would stack up…

[nocents] 14/3/2024 10:58

Many of these have sold. I remember them saying so very clearly. They are out.

[pavey ark] 14/3/2024 10:57

Not wanting to interrupt the current theme here but the oil price is currently very strong.
In Q1 it looks like we are heading for a realised price that is $4 above the predicted
$66. (Cavendish)

As I have pointed out before, this increased cash does not carry production costs , G&A etc so most goes to the bottom line.

$4 translates to almost $1m additional revenue in Q1 with a large part of this going to the bottom line.

Sorry about this good(ish) news......as you were !!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 14/3/2024 07:59

AQC888 - to explain: I have been around for a while and know that there are TRIN ADVFN posters (many of whom have talked about having chunky holdings) who are not on the SKYSHIP list. Many of these posters have gone quiet recently, but that does not mean they have sold. Here are 10 names just for a start: otemple3, SPELLBROOK, Flagon, lexus880, Gary1966, glennborthwick, Mustbefunny, avsome1968, astorcourt, oilinvestorAL.

This is why I think 5% is doable (though I am not saying easily) without Ab76.

[aqc888] 14/3/2024 03:32

ACT; could you explain your post 3568?

[nafafa] 13/3/2024 23:37

Arl, you are preaching to the converted. Unless we can get AB76 to support shareholder action, we fail to force the BoD to take notice.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/3/2024 17:27

milanista11 - no, absolutely the fault of the management. I made my position on this clear before there was any hint that Jacobin would disappoint, in fact when it still looked promising (back in July last year):

“Yes, whether they get lucky with their Jacobin gamble or not, Galeota should have been their sole focus - they should have been accumulating cash to leverage the most shareholder friendly outcome they could at Galeota under the current fiscal regime.”

Can you imagine? No hedging fiasco, no Jacobin disaster and Galeota could have been that much closer. Galeota is development, not exploration like Jacobin. It is expensive, but it is not risky.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/3/2024 17:11

nocents - as I said, he is the poster boy for a classically complacent and wrong-headed take on TRIN. Even some people who previously agreed with him, such as Pavey Ark, have now slid somewhat away from his position. But his wait and see rhetoric could have a dangerous dampening effect on any gathering momentum for kicking these characters out. He has not posted for over a week - perhaps he is reconsidering his position and will return to put his considerable shareholding behind what SKYSHIP is organising. I would welcome that and commend him for it.

[milanista11] 13/3/2024 16:47

The main problem is the poor quality of assets. Therefore the cash basis of max 10 millions of USD is too small to eventually monetize the scattered hidden treasures. Jacobin was intended to match current and future depletion of oil reserves. Almost 10 millions sunk in the ground. It is not their fault as they planned carefully. With that happened they can barely afford an other drilling campaign. The market is pricing in this desolate situation. Not the fault of management. What I blame is, they have doubled remuneration despite the insucces on and in the ground. We can only hope for a big increase of oil prices and other drillers are successful monetizing oil deposits. Until now there is no game changer re oil discoveries. There are no meaningful oil deposits in sight onshore and for offshore the company has no capital. An eventual cooperation partner has better turfs to choose. These are the facts, I regret it because I made a colossal loss.

[nocents] 13/3/2024 15:59

ACT
If you can’t be bothered to do anything yourself, I don’t see why you should be vilifying Ab76 for his view and the company for its inept management( which I agree with) , if you just can’t be bothered to DO something yourself. All the excuses this side of the Antarctic don’t cut ice.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/3/2024 14:51

Pavey Ark - "but if someone says they aim to return 15% of operational cash flow and they don't, when they quite obviously can, then it is time to get them out" - why not get your retaliation in first and get them out now?

[nocents] 13/3/2024 14:23

I think Id agree with all of that.
I bloody well hope AGM is not 3-11th June though!! Son getting married abroad. I missed last AGM for a court case. 1st meeting missed since 2017. This one is probably the most crucial.

[pavey ark] 13/3/2024 13:26

The current return (1.5p dividend total and $600k buyback) is 12%.

If they "aim" to return 15% and don't then a reason must be given .....you can't just look down, whistle and stick your hands in your pockets.

I expect a final dividend of 1.5p and then an interim of 0.75p this year.

The Cavendish guy is suggesting a total dividend of $0.7m this year(only to one decimal place)my figures would be $1.1m

My main point is that the Cavendish year end cash is $7.9m ....with outstanding VAT return to be added to that we are well over $11m ......I will be at the AGM so let them tell me they can't pay out the additional $0.4m !!!!

£500 or £600 additional payment to me is most certainly not the point here but if someone says they aim to return 15% of operational cash flow and they don't, when they quite obviously can, then it is time to get them out.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/3/2024 12:16

But you have been around here for a long time, so while it was all subsequently deleted you can remember what he was posting under his HamiltonHill and Ab76 avatars and how wrong it all turned out to be. At the same time, you can see from his recent, for now undeleted, posts that lessons have not really been learned. It is important to highlight this because people are still listening to him and as long as they are listening to him, nothing is going to get done and this inept BoD is going to get away with it.

[nocents] 13/3/2024 12:13

Yes, thanks for that. Appreciated.
But the 15% was an objective and never promised. That bothers me.
They really should do though, considering appalling shareholder treatment.
The rest of the cash would be used to shore up C$10m Jacobin loss, and go towards BA expenditure in the New Year. Roads will need to be built as it is jungle. Capex will be considerable, and unless a farm-in, they will only be able to fund one of the ten wells at a time out of cashflow. We do really need to know what was learned from Jacobin too. But inspite of my emails, silence.
I would hope for a Galeota farm-in at some stage as it is beyond Trin. Or sell it to Perenco for goodness sake. That’d fund a successful shallow drilling campaign.
I hope things are going on, but Trinity have done nothing but mess up since the departure of Bruce and Tracey. Hard to make it up really. Risked NAV of over £2 a share . And we are at 38p. BOD need retraining in the oil business.
Div? Right now , every little helps.

[nocents] 13/3/2024 11:19

I won’t enter the fray between yourself and Ab76 but your argument re. management is fairly sound. Since BD and TM departed, it has become a display of poor decisions and appalling communication. I think an EGM could wait until post AGM, but pressure does nood to be applied to inept management and vacuous “promised̶1; communication. I am hoping stuff is going on in the background, but that may be no more than hope.

[sleepy] 13/3/2024 10:25

Thanks Pavey. Any ideas on what they will do with rest of their cash flow?