Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 27/2/2024 11:21

I had been popping in to the oil price as usual. It is atm around about perfect for cash gen. Brent around $80-82 leaves realized price around $69. Barring a Middle East surprise , this leaves $5-6 leeway from SPT which is good.
Update is due in May-a long time off, but that leaves 3 more months’ profit in the coffers. I don’t see any reason why we are not at dead-cat bounce level here. ( who ever made that phrase up?). Anyway….imo 43p ( 44.9 in actuality) is not really sustainable. Just have to sit out the FM silence.
This time next year Rodney. Not rich, but it ought to look different. BA cannot be risky, and we do need to know what they did actually learn from their glitzy mis-drill.

[pavey ark] 27/2/2024 10:48

Not agreeing or disagreeing with what has been said but nothing is likely to happen until the results and the AGM.

If the management have any idea of their position they will be pulling out all the stops on Galeota and I would imagine that the mood would change rapidly with positive news on a sale or at least a large scale farm down........any large scale funding/borrowing followed by an attempted in-house development would surely lead to open revolt.

In the meantime we chunter along....but if you close one eye and squint with the other I think you will see a glass almost half full.
In Jan/Feb the realised price has been c. 5% above the forecast for the year.
A 5% increase in realised price is worth at least a 10% increase in production (no production costs no G&A)
If this realised price remained then there is a c.$4m increase in revenue above forecast.

[nocents] 27/2/2024 08:34

They will not voluntarily move aside.
They will have to be pushed.
And I don’t think they’ll buy shares either. Or they would already have done.
Ab has detailed the large losses by main shareholders.( JB is the only director losing a large sum, and his salary is decent enough to regularly compensate) It is the large shareholders who need to do the pushing. I am sure they are putting some kind of pressure on , but things are probably going nowhere in 2024 imo. They (like the directors and unlike some of us) can afford their losses which probably don’t affect their lives directly( unlike some of us again).
So it looks like we are stuck in radio silence again.

[aqc888] 26/2/2024 21:39

“ management wants more than their base salaries, they need to get the share price and production up.”

I’m not sure I want to see this management getting bonuses based on returning the share price back to where it was before…
Management should buy a chunk of shares, or if they don’t have the confidence to do this they should move aside. It would be outrageous for bonuses to be paid for returning the share price back to where it was before their destruction of value.

[nocents] 25/2/2024 21:04

Succinctly to the point. Backed up by sound facts re. the big investors. I think it helps us to be less blandly critical. I struggle with this. I resent the fact that they take home a nice salary regardless, whilst it has had a severe impact upony my and my family’s lives. But there are no winners and it is important to be aware of others’ losses too, although they can certainly afford it more, subjectively speaking, as huge as their losses are.
But we each made our own decision.
Important to see the full picture though.
Appreciate such facts.

[aqc888] 25/2/2024 19:43

If Trinity were a house it would be a worn out old shack on some prime real estate.
The discussions over whether management can maximise returns are now as pointless as talking to a builder about whether to repair the roof of the Trinity shack or improve the insulation etc.
Forget it. The only serious value shareholders will now see is the sale of Trinity or a substantial part. The management took their opportunity to create value and have failed with the share price hitting crazy lows. The management have not decisively exploited these lows by buying shares themselves, and have thereby sealed their fate as busted.
Trinity shareholders have been battered, the situation in Trinidad shows that total production of Trinidad is reducing. It’s the time for consolidation of oilers in Trinidad as a country, due to its dwindling bopd, and its most certainly time for a weaker oiler like Trinity to be bought out.

[nocents] 25/2/2024 17:59

Fully agree with all of that.
And I think the last bit is also very salient. That time may come.
( The only bit I disagree with is that every investor knows a horror story re. Unscrupulous investors. I would say many many do not, and we can’t know every investor.or whether they know the horror stories. Many will still not. not. I certainly didn’t and fell for them. Many are , I am sure, still as naive as I was.
We can’t know every investor anyway and certainly not whether they know this or not. , Too many certainly, but Certainly can’t be everyone ‘cos we can’t know everyone anyway!!
Apologies for being picky Andrew. .It is an often Irritating trait which I know I have. There will sadly still be many investors iblivious of the unscrupulous directors and their recent rip-offs.
Agree fully with all else you say re. the large shareholders. The stability offered by their presence is crucial and highly noteworthy.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 25/2/2024 17:45

Ab76 - And everyone has an investment horror story concerning incompetent/ineffective directors and complacent shareholders. Trinity has already become one.

Seriously, you need to stop running interference for these people. If you do not think they could shrink your investment further, you could have another thing coming.

[skyship] 25/2/2024 13:33

Nafafa - doesn't work like that. Even if it did; any bid would have to be pitched high enough to tempt. Sub 100p wouldn't cut it; so the concept merely a conspiracy theory. Sorry...

[nafafa] 25/2/2024 12:26

AB, do you have any concerns that management and certain large shareholders are collaborating to keep the share price purposefully low, so that they can use it as an opportunity to take the business private cheaply?

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 25/2/2024 11:49

Ab76 - “Whilst I am not in favour of replacing the board (at least not yet), things cannot continue as they have before.”

In this news vacuum I have nothing new to say about TRIN, but your complacency continues to astound me. You always draw the line at moving against the BoD. You can talk all you like about constructive engagement, but this shower just gratefully slide off such attempts. All constructive engagement does is buy them more salary time.

Frankly, complacent shareholders get the share price they deserve.

[nocents] 25/2/2024 09:56

Wow, that was an early-bird post Andrew!
All good stuff. Sound and logical.
Could not agree more.
How do we make that horse drink the water though?
They get paid the same regardless of base production, failed wells and a collapsed share price. If their jobs are not at stake , then there is no immediacy.
Trinity have clearly failed under the management of JB, JK et al. Communication with shareholders started its descent with the departure of Tracy M., responsible for IR. Just over a year ago I received a very terse email from JK , IR officer, accusing me of digging for illegal insider info and not to email again. Vigo became the neutral middle-body . And communication from Trinity with shareholders just evaporated, along with confidence in the company post failed conventional wells and Jacobin.
They have promised much and delivered nothing. Promises are easy. Yes the oil business is a rocky science, but you are right, it is not good enough.
Trinity have to win back credibility. And the present BOD may not have what it takes tbh. We are in for a Sargasso dead calm year ahead. No drilling. Just recompletions and workovers/swabbings. And even they have failed to sustain base production!
If there is no real and credible plan for share price revival pre further drilling( which may yield nothing again) , then the board should be replaced courtesy of significant shareholders and Galeota assets or the company put up for sale. That or a takeover by a larger player who can do a better job. Both options.
Those in charge here have clearly failed, but it does not directly affect their standard of life, unlike , unfortunately, some of us.
Balancing of losses until BA in 2025 will not return our share value and 2024 will likely see us languish.
If the large shareholders care enough, they should instigate change sooner rather than later ( further promises re.BA).
The market does not forgive failure or inherent failings. If there is no action, 2024 will certainly not be a year of share revival pointing us closer to real NAV. And what have they learned that makes BA greater than Jacobin’s 63% COS?
I rest my case M’Lud.

[nafafa] 22/2/2024 11:37

This management will not lead the way by purchasing stock, because they have no confidence in their own ability to deliver. Our only hope is to turn up on mass to the AGM and make our voices heard.

[nocents] 22/2/2024 09:20

It is clesr that they do not wish to. They side-stepped this question at the last Investormeet by saying there was only a week when they could have bought. Well they could have bought, couldn’t they. They can buy now. It is not in their personal interests to do so, which is highly disappointing , but they do not wish to part with their salaries.
They have a LTIP which would provide them with a bonus if the share price recovers.
They do want the share price to recover, but clearly not at their personal expense.
Essentially it is up to the large shareholders to call the tune now. Assets should be sold, or a farm-in encouraged. This is beyond us, and we will have to wait until May for an update.

[aqc888] 22/2/2024 08:07

If management bought a large chunk of shares, I would back them. Without this I would be very keen for them to be replaced, nothing “gets my goat” more than management destroying shareholder value, talking about how insanely cheap and undervalued their company is - and then not buy any insanely cheap shares with their salaries. Surely they have spare cash every year they invest somewhere… why do they not invest it in “bargain”; Trinity? They need to lead the share price recovery from the front.

[nafafa] 21/2/2024 23:34

That may well be ...... regrettably based on recent performance, we lack management with the ability to realise true value.

[nocents] 16/2/2024 16:42

Waiting game.

[aqc888] 16/2/2024 11:06

With the current share price at less than 25% of the recently reported NAV why is everyone dancing around what should happen next? Is Trinity a family heirloom that makes everyone want to hold it anyhow? Nope. Does Trinity hold some kind of emotional attachment that would be hard to let go?!?! Nope. Would its asset be difficult to sell? Nope! Does everyone want to see the disaster of Trinity’s share price loss removed from their portfolio? Yes. Do management have to follow shareholders wishes if pressed? Yes. Would just the mere mention of the start of a formal process to sell Trinity/assets make the share price rise? Seriously though, one has to ask will Trinity ever be priced at a premium to its nav? Highly highly unlikely I’d say, therefore an offer of a slight discount would be ideal for everyone…

[andrewbyles] 16/2/2024 09:57

Here’s Standard Chartered’s argument for $90+ oil:

However, just over a month ago the price predictions looked less rosy:

[andrewbyles] 15/2/2024 18:54

There’s an interesting article in the FT asserting that consolidation amongst US shale oil producers will lead to higher prices as producers concentrate on earnings instead of production:

It’s only a small switch, but Warren Buffet has been moving his investments into oil:

[nafafa] 15/2/2024 17:46

Many common sense posts on this Board, i doubt that the self serving management at Trinity dare look in to gauge shareholder sentiment, a shame. Perhaps time to have someone elected to join the BoD to champion the interests of shareholders.Pavey would get my vote!!