Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 08/2/2024 10:57

TXP has been a (very) slow motion car crash operationally but at least stuff is now happening there and shareholders are beginning to see the benefit. TRIN is offering next to nothing in 2024. Shareholders know what they need to do about this BoD and their failed strategies. The rewards could be fairly immediate.

[pavey ark] 08/2/2024 10:27

Not sure if the production guidance for 2024 includes any production from Jacobin.

[pavey ark] 08/2/2024 10:27

That is the figure($10.9m)I noted yesterday.
They updated their original presentation but I couldn't see any announcement of a change or why it was made......no matter... $10.9m is obviously better than $9.7m and may be increased further with the results.

On a slightly more positive note there is a reasonable chance that the final realised price for 2024 will be above the estimated $66.3 (so far it is at $68) and if they are serious about belt tightening then I expect the G&A figure to come down.

[skyship] 08/2/2024 09:01

Vertity sent me the link to the updated research rather than new:

"2024 Guidance: Trinity has set 2024 sales guidance at 2,600-2,700bopd, a modest c5% YoY decrease at the midpoint, as Trinity continues to offset an estimated c7-10% annual natural production decline. Capex in 2024 is expected to be US$7-8m to fund a programme of recompletions and production related expenditure, minor sustaining capex and growth projects. Following recent Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) reforms we forecast Trinity paying no SPT in 2024, enabling the Company to generate cUS$11.6m in operating cash flow in 2024 (2023: US$10.9m). This increase in operating cash flow, combined with lower capex (vs 2023E) leads to YE24E closing cash estimate of US$11.9m (YE23: US$9.8m)."

[skyship] 08/2/2024 08:58

Is it today after the Market close that we will see ST's Bargain Portfolio?

[skyship] 08/2/2024 08:49

So far unable to find it 😣

[strathroyal] 08/2/2024 08:44

nocents - The last post I saw from AB76, he remains supportive of the BODs so I guess he isn't of this view. When I've got a few hours, I'll look at the other thread and see how this viewpoint got so entrenched.

In the meantime I notice a small early buy today, are we expecting ST's version of bargain hunt today?

[skyship] 08/2/2024 08:34

Dear #######

Thank you for getting in touch last week. Please note that Cavendish have updated their operating cash flow guidance to be more in line with the Company’s estimations.

The updated note can be downloaded from Cavendish’s research portal.

Kind regards,

Verity

[nocents] 07/2/2024 21:53

It is still in its own way a promise. A carrot held out for the donkey. Not set in stone. But it should have been mentioned post facto if just an aim. These things cannot and should not be teased. You mention when you know it is the case.
It is the very reason why Jacobin’s 63% COS was such s disaster. Best not to ‘tease’ with false”promises”. Best not to mention at all until fact.
Err on side of caution.
Big error.
You can dispute but I ( and I acan only speak for myself) won’t be dissuaded from this.

[strathroyal] 07/2/2024 19:42

There never was a promise to return 15%. I pointed out in a previous post where it is referred to as an aim in the 2022 accounts and this is also the case in the June 2023 presentation, slide 8.

[nocents] 07/2/2024 19:31

There will only be growth on sale of zgaleota or new drilling in BA in 2025.
The only other growth will be in revenue and profit, and we darned well deserve what has been promised at 15% and not to be fobbed off. They receive nice salaries, whilst we receive a devaluing of our investment . No way should it just be absorbed at our cost.

[pavey ark] 07/2/2024 15:52

Is that the adjusted Cavendish figures now included in their update ?

Operational cash flow 2023 $10.9m ....if it is then it is below the Dec 19th suggested figure from JB but better than the initial figure of under $10m......the actual figure in the audited results may be higher ...we will find out in May.

[lexus880] 07/2/2024 13:48

I would prefer growth in the company to a small dividend.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 07/2/2024 10:31

Perhaps the thumb downer would like to expand on what exactly they disagree with in my last post.

[sleepy] 06/2/2024 19:37

Andrew - thank you very much for this and for your other posts

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 06/2/2024 16:51

Ab76 - your complacency is frankly astonishing. The share price will continue to languish if you and others continue to let this BoD off the hook. It is hard to believe that after the Jacobin disaster you are still prepared to let these characters update you only as and when they see fit. The market only overreacted to Jacobin to the extent that the share price dipped into the 30s. Otherwise its verdict has been hard but fair.

And that little nugget about VAT is a kick in the nuts. You could argue that it is only a cash flow issue, but we all know how long VAT refunds can remain outstanding in Trinidad. So that was a serious lack of transparency in a number of TRIN RNSs right there. Sounds to me like one for AIM Regulation.

Sack the BoD. They are really not your friends.

[skyship] 06/2/2024 16:46

Indeed - thnx AB

[spectoacc] 06/2/2024 15:32

Andrew - as always, thanks for posting.

[aqc888] 06/2/2024 13:34

The reaction of weak management to weak operations is often weak accounting.

- Warren Buffett

[nocents] 06/2/2024 12:52

Lol. I did the same.
What I said afterwards I still believe though. The big holders need to get involved and not be complacent.
I have lost faith indeed. I have lost more money than faith I would say.
I have written in too. No response.
I do believe the time has indeed come to instigate change if they are unwilling to though. We have no idea what is true any more, nor where they are going …Galeota, Shareholder return, BA 2025?
Is it just a case of radio silence as a new norm?

[nocents] 06/2/2024 12:09

This is in the hands of the Newlands, Castro,Segel, Winther et al. They seem to just let it all ride.
I suspect their wealth cushions them.
45p is hardly conceivable considering it was 70p on refinancing, large debt, no fiscal reform, $50 a barrel etc.etc.This price is a result of appalling Jacobin communications, optimism bordering on misleading/delusional, and a void of information in 2024. We are a nuisance to them but the Newlands et al are not.
1) Ab needs a reply
2) We need to know the real 2024 prospective cashflow-not in sterling.
3) We need an apology from Cavendish if they made that error
4) We need ratification of 15% shareholder return of FCF.
5) What has happened to the balance of 15% 2023 and why are we not given this?
6) We need to know what they plan for Galeota-not fairy stories.
7) We need communication
8) Too much more……
As I have said, I don’t believe in hero worship, just reality, but no way would we be in this place with BD and TM. Communication was the norm. I was regularly speaking directly to both. Now And it was accepted and acceptable.
February is a short month but there is a lot of it left.
First step is reply to Ab’s extremely civil letter to Chairman.
I don’t expect a reply to mine, but ought to.
Start holding breath……now.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 06/2/2024 12:07

Goodness me, I have just ticked up a Pavey Ark post. That is a first.

[pavey ark] 06/2/2024 10:53

We have a chicken/egg situation regarding the additional dividend ....and it does not reflect well on management.

JB made a great play of getting information out early in the new year....and two announcements were made....but nothing on the operational cash flow which be did make much of at the time.

The range for operational cash flow was $10m to $12m and we were guided to the top end and even beyond.....six weeks later Cavendish come out with $9.7m (close enough to $10m but far from $12m+).

I don't think the 15% distribution has ever been mentioned again and not wanting to sound overly naive....you just can't do things like that.
The 15% distribution is dependent on OCF and they have avoided giving that.
There is ample cash to provide their "aim" of 15% distribution to shareholders and 15% of $12m OCF would take less than 8% of year end cash ($480K additional payment)

I expected some sort of a reaction/response from TRIN this morning.... but nothing !!

In my view the chairman and the CFO come across as aloof and dismissive of shareholders.
JB perhaps lets his desire to please/reassure get the better of him.

This board has a wider viewing audience than just the usual posters but even the small shareholders can act......I give it until the end of the month for some sort of action /statement from the board.....and this must include acknowledgment of the share price...Galeota(realisation of value)...and plans to restore confidence in them and the company.....or perhaps their resignation.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 06/2/2024 10:14

No, Section 303 of the Companies Act 2006 allows small shareholders to get the ball rolling. This has got to the stage where a meaningful recovery is not going to happen otherwise. This BoD is neither shareholder friendly nor competent.

[nocents] 06/2/2024 09:23

And I repeat that it won’t happen because we do not have the power to do so. Only 50% + shareholders do. So it remains an empty repetitive threat going nowhere.