Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aqc888] 01/2/2024 16:13

Call me silly or whatever… but Trinity missing their self imposed deadline today has massively dented my confidence in them.
In the same way individuals have credit scores impacted by missing payments on time (even if they have plenty in their bank balance). Trinity today has had its confidence rating battered in my opinion hugely. They KNEW investors were v.annoyed over the Jacobin reporting last month being untimely. Now they’ve gone and done it again!!
One day late sure, pretty meaningless… but it shows something is not right here…

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 16:04

Interesting @strathroyal, thanks.

[pavey ark] 01/2/2024 15:53

Just back in so not read the Cavendish nonsense in full but things did look strange.

We were guided to $12m in December by the CEO (former CFO)so under $10m in January !!?? ....this is not trivial!!

I also consider the 15% to be a serious commitment and one that certainly could have influenced a share purchase (that does make it serious !!)

With 1.5P in dividend ($715k) and the share buy back ($600K)anything above $8.7m for operational cash flow means that less than 15% has been returned.

Even Cavendish are predicting a year end net cash of $7.5m which will include all announced dividends being paid.

An additional 1p would cost $475k......if you believe that after a year of belt tightening and limited drilling Trin can't afford this you should certainly run and run far !!

[strathroyal] 01/2/2024 15:38

Andrew - whilst it's good to have you back here, I can't keep up with your output!

Re your post 7019, you say that Trinity stated that SPT reform would add $4-$5M to last years $12M but is this actually correct as whilst it may seem implied, having a quick look at recent announcements I can't see these two figures quoted together.

Additionally, in the update 11/01, last paragraph re Jacobin, reference is made to the undisputed costs incurred of $8.3M. Perhaps the change in cash flow relates to the disputed costs as we know that additional expenditure was incurred which TRIN think should be paid by the driller but perhaps they've had to revise that viewpoint.

[strathroyal] 01/2/2024 15:06

Andrew - correct but it was rubbished here by posters claiming that it was understating production. Here's one example:

I repeat to any present holder....if you believe/suspect that the end of year production will be less than 3500 bpd run , run now, run far, run fast.

[aqc888] 01/2/2024 14:53

I seem to remember the broker giving a bopd estimate last year which was rubbished on this thread. It was subsequently proven accurate… would be good to get further clarification on these figures today. A NAV at 204p or 336p are both highly desirable though!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/2/2024 13:29

No. The lowest price I paid was 37p. Even if that was available again I would not increase my exposure. Not unless something was done about the BoD first.

[ashkv] 01/2/2024 13:14

ACT - I suppose you are still locked in..

Would you consider averaging down? And if so what price would you consider an optimum near term entry?

[ashkv] 01/2/2024 13:13

Appears to be TRIN's 6-7 highest volume session over the past 3 months - and quite a bit of the day to go....

# Trades 22
Vol. Sold 158,146
Sold Value £72.90k
Vol. Bought 50,000
Bought Value £23.75k

[nocents] 01/2/2024 12:53

Agree. Disagree. Whatever. No reason for anyone to get personal. Make it a supportive thread. I am heartily sick of my own anger at being pin-cushioned. Disagree with content but shoot the message not the messenger.
Andrew, well done for picking Cavendish up ( assuming it is them and not Trin). They have got things wrong before.
I will also write to Trin via Vigo.
I encourage others to.
Figures do not match.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/2/2024 12:11

Ab76 - you bandy all these figures around and still cannot see the wood for the trees, even after all this time and everything that has happened. Under this BoD, TRIN is a value trap. If you want to spring it from that trap, for goodness' sake do something about the BoD.

[strathroyal] 01/2/2024 11:49

Pavey Ark - interesting attempt to mislabel my view. I've always expected the 1p dividend to be paid and I am certain that I've never posted to the contrary. I've also never expected to receive anything extra, the cash position simply doesn't support it.

Skyship - prissy, really (Definition; having or showing the annoying attitude of people who care too much about dressing and behaving properly and who are easily upset by other people's behaviour). The definition better suits your comment than mine.

[skyship] 01/2/2024 11:40

???????? Bit of a glaring omission!

Any reason for that do you think?

[aqc888] 01/2/2024 11:14

How is the Ab conservative figure of $166.3 million (£131 million or 336p per share) so high compared to the Cavendish core NAV and price target of 201.8p?

[nafafa] 01/2/2024 11:13

And I very much doubt we will see any of the BoD buying shares, they clearly have no confidence in their own ability to deliver. I am just puzzled as to why sizable shareholders are prepared to sit back on their hands and watch their Investment go down the toilet. This BoD will not part with Galeota, it is too valuable to them, it sustains their high salaries and clearly safe positions for many years to come.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/2/2024 10:50

The share price action this morning says it all. There will be no significant recovery under this BoD.

[ashkv] 01/2/2024 09:47

hahah - on point... has me cracking up :)

acsatix1 Feb '24 - 08:38 - 3479 of 3479
0 2 0
basically they announced they take holiday this year :)

[pavey ark] 01/2/2024 09:32

RE: "special dividend".....the company stated that they intended to return 15% of operational cash flow to shareholders.
The operational cash flow figure has not yet been given so 15% of this is not known.
Most (all) shareholders would consider a "return" to be through a dividend or share buy-back.
If the early 2023 buy-back and the 1.5p total dividend is less than 15% of operational cash flow then shareholders have been mislead if there is no additional payment .......even on AIM this is not a trivial charge.

However this is unlikely to be clarified until the results in April and plenty to focus on until then

[skyship] 01/2/2024 09:15

Strath - what a prissy little post. If you want to see justification simply read AB's posts.

[pavey ark] 01/2/2024 09:04

strathroyal, I do remember people saying (perhaps yourself) that there was no chance of even this 1p final dividend.
The depletion is in line with expectations and for me not a big issue......that is not to say that I'm happy with this update.....and I certainly have concerns.

The main conclusion I draw from this is that Galeota should be sold.

[strathroyal] 01/2/2024 08:41

I remember pointing out last year to anyone prepared to listen (so I think that was no one!) that the June presentation showed production declining to 2,600 by 2026 yet we are already here, low field decline my ...

Also note the committment to the 1p dividend rather than the 15% capital, again no chance of 1p special, whereever did people dream that up from!

Will be fascinating to see how Simon can justify making this one of his 8-10 bargain shares.