Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aqc888] 14/2/2024 17:47

“ I see the current opinion is (repeated more than once) that somehow NOTHING will happen for the best part of the year.....I don’t agree”

… what was the worst case scenario with Jacobin though? They would find no oil…? BUT what actually happened was worse than the worst case… they said they found loads, then not much, then not much with sand in it (which wouldn’t be a problem - but then say the sand was such a problem they needed to abandon it). Then mess around with silence for a bit while the share price slowly drifts lower and lower and lower and lower… then when share price has drifted to crazy lows THEN release news it’s all a bit of a flop. Great. Double damage. It simply could not have been any worse if they got consultants in to create the worst case scenario possible. They couldn’t have made a worse job of it if they tried. Then they apologise for the poor communication over it all - THEN ONE MONTH LATER miss their own communication deadline of January!?!? They couldn’t destroy any more value if they put their minds to it. That January deadline which they missed was the cherry on the cake though.

[nocents] 14/2/2024 17:43

Let us not forget that JB received around 95% ratings at the last AGM. I don’t think they are genuinely under the Sword of Damocles. I think they realize the expectations and know they have to respond. In what way? No idea. Their jobs are not at stake ( in my opinion) , but they will certainly know ( and immediately) if that decision is taken. No way thay cannot know . I believe 50% of shareholders have to vote in an EGM. Very public. ( I took part in the unseating of Infrastrata in 2017). So there is no way that the BOD, however out of touch, cannot know immediately when they are out of a job.They would/will be the equal first to know.

[pavey ark] 14/2/2024 17:02

I see the current opinion is (repeated more than once) that somehow NOTHING will happen for the best part of the year.....I don't agree.

I doubt very much if the whole year will go past with no major news of Galeota.

They are still blundering along at Jacobin and I'm not sure what if anything is included in the projected production figures........zero from Jacobin is unlikely but if it is insignificant then serious questions have to be asked.
I not suggesting that people haven't questioned this project but it is only when everything than can be done has been done can we assess things.

I see the oil price is still on the up.
If Cavendish have based year end forecasts on a realised price of $66.3 then a 5% gain gives much more than a 5% gain to the bottom line.

Anyway let me render all my prattle and that of others utterly meaningless.....Jacobin, Hummingbird, Buenos Ayres, Galeota etc, etc are totally irrelevant when a company with $6m cash and producing c.2700 bpd is valued at $22m.

If the management don't know they are supping in the last chance saloon then they are so out of touch they may not even realise that they are out of a job.

[nocents] 14/2/2024 15:01

None of us can know what they have been told, or whether their jobs are on the line or not, as we are not party to any discussions, assuming there have been any.
Their jobs may not be on the line at all-we absolutely cannot know one way or the other-but the pressure will be there regardless. That is a good thing, and one reason why companies with large or insti. shareholders often take their share price into account…because they are accountable.
2024 may be Sargasso though, at least until Q4.

[pavey ark] 14/2/2024 13:43

My view is that they are not going to sell Galeota.....not now... not ever!!!

My big concern would be if they raised finance and said "oh look!! we can do this without a partner"!!!!????

I don't want to scare people but with Trintes producing away at c.1000 bpd and the very successful TGAL result it is easy to see them raising 70% of the costs.....the flip side of this is that it would give some indication of the inherent value in Galeota.....given the recent drilling results this is obviously the stuff of nightmares !!

Sorry to scare people like that and the most likely outcome looks like some sort of farm down but how much and is Trintes included....indeed can Trintes be excluded from any deal?

If Trintes is indeed included and the farm down is sufficiently substantial then cash will still be available for onshore drilling.

I would imagine that this is the sort of tale being told to the large investors but the management will have been told that they are most definitely in the last chance saloon.

[nocents] 14/2/2024 11:41

Interesting.
I agree with the latter points re large shareholders.
I also strongly feel that the update being on 1st Feb. is not symbolic, and is wholly irrelant and meaningless. I do respect your take on it ACQ so not putting you down in any way. I just don’t see it that way.
I do see a long period of radio silence ahead though. Prepared.

[pavey ark] 14/2/2024 10:54

They filed the update on the 31st of January and it was announced on the 1st of February BEFORE the market opened....this is trivial and they have done a lot worse.

Moving on:

Directors dealing in the last five years:

JB 54K @ 115p av
Clayton 30K @ 107p av
Menzies 115K @ 127p av
Winther 185k @ 101p

BUT Winther converted loan notes for the equivalent of 661K @ 150p
As Andrew pointed out , it is likely that all the major shareholders did the same.

These major share holders would need to be in the very, very small band of rich people who don't care about a major loss or things must be moving towards action.........all directors and the major holders are certainly carrying a considerable loss.

I think this has been pointed out before.

Jonathan Cooper
Independent Non-Executive Director
(8 August 2023 to present)
Jon has more than 25 years’ experience in mergers, acquisitions, public offerings and financings in banking and the oil and gas industry.

[aqc888] 14/2/2024 09:30

Not reporting on Jacobin results to shareholders in a timely manner was a major criticism of the management in 2023 and big reason why the share price is where it is. The management then pledged to improve communication. Then within months they miss their own deadline again… It is an ‘in your face illustration’ that they are not on the ball.

[pavey ark] 14/2/2024 08:01

Busy and very excellent day yesterday now back to this.....hey-ho!!!

AQC for all the grief (real and imagined) that had rained down on shareholders you pick on this !!??

The update was filed on the 31st of January and made public at 7.00am (before the market opened) on the 1st of February....!!!!????

Moving on:
Looked at the list of directors buying over the last five years (list on IC).....interesting and ties in with Andrews's 2018 purchases....more later....strong coffee time !!

[skyship] 14/2/2024 07:42

sb - indeed, could well have been. Put-throughs are usually a matter of seconds apart; these were 21 seconds apart. Time for two trades. Who knows...

[aqc888] 13/2/2024 22:26

One does have to ask what the point of making views known to the board is… if the response of the board is not honoured by the board in the most simple of ways (ie sticking to the timeline they set themselves last month). What hope is there for more serious pledges they make?

Jacobin reporting to the market was a complete shambles. If they had any self awareness at all the VERY LAST THING THEY WOULD DO would be to set a time deadline for themselves of January - then miss it. It is symbolic of their word meaning zero and if they can’t even keep such a simple, self imposed pledge there is ZERO CHANCE of any serious pledges of selling Galeota ever becoming remotely real. 2024 is a year very little is happing in Trinity. It’s time for these guys to go and a new board with the specific objective of selling Galeota, and as much else as possible, are bought in. I don’t have confidence anymore in this board since that January deadline was missed.

[spittingbarrel] 13/2/2024 16:25

SKY - I reckon the 45K @ 45p was a sell and the 100k at 46 was a buy. Probably arranged at the same time.

[nocents] 13/2/2024 15:01

Thank you for expanding on my 2016 comment Andrew. Segel was the driving force behind the refinancing in 2016. The 2018 Placing was a painful event at £2.80 (!) and the price plummeted to £1.60 overnight. How can I forget? I was understandably unaware of the participants, so it is good you know the facts.

And I will take that last comment re. large shareholders with the sincerity in which you give it. I am only too happy to mellow my complaining.

I do find today’s trading interesting though . :-/

[nocents] 13/2/2024 13:47

Sleepy.
Yes.

Sky:- it seems that all today’s trades are unlikely to be p/i’s. There was no trading fee. Some p/i’s pay for no trading fee, but it seems to be curious.
The price seems to have been driven down to buy back more cheaply. Happens with Trin, as low volume and can be manipulated.
Even the £15k+ trade had no fee.
It may just be City traders massaging the price to buy in.
Or I may be talking tosh of course.

[sleepy] 13/2/2024 13:36

nocents - is 5-7p in 2016 equivalent to 50p-70p now?

[skyship] 13/2/2024 13:27

Unusual. 45k bt @ 45p, then 30secs later 100k bt @ 46p.

That 100k perhaps the largest trade we've seen in quite some time.

Sp unchanged so far - still 43p-46p...

[sleepy] 13/2/2024 12:17

SKY - I’m a newbie here but did many of the big shareholders buy in at or around 50p some years ago?

[aqc888] 13/2/2024 12:04

The final straw for me was management talking of better communication. Then missing the January deadline and posting on 1/2/24.

[skyship] 13/2/2024 11:26

That is a very long list of surely dis-satisfied, loss-making shareholders.

Why no action from any of them I wonder. Serious cash been lost in 2023; yet not a peep out of any of them - as far as we know of course.

Another Q for JB when we get the chance to quiz him again.

[nafafa] 13/2/2024 10:55

Nocents, I agree and have a similar average to you, I prefer not to think too much about it! The BoD are hopeless at exploration so must be forced to sell assets and return cash to shareholders. I guess the next opportunity to challenge them face-to-face will be the AGM, to which we need to turn up and make our feelings known.

[nocents] 12/2/2024 19:26

I am not sure everyone here is on exactly that page, but I absolutely personally feel unrequited by the team, and with an ave. of £1.28 -1:30 , cannot see that by rebuilding balance sheets. I want a sale, and would be happy with part or full, just feel it’s about time the sharecprice was addressed. When Bruce passed away in 2022 it was £1.65. Downhill ever since. Especially 2023.