Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 08/7/2018 16:53

Ross - thanks will do.

The maths suggests the management are expecting 55-60bopd per well production performance. Why so low?

'they confirm that the wells in question are to be 4000 - 6000 feet,'

TXP's 4 wells drilled in 2017 were 5,360, 5,627, 7,340 and 6,926ft - an average of 6,313ft.

It would be good to know that TRIN's drilling programme will be targeting the deeper plays - particularly considering the guidance given regarding cost to drill compared to what TXP has reported for their 10 well programme this year.

[imjustdandy] 08/7/2018 16:28

Bottom line is - trinity on a sound footing, generating piles of cash and killed off the CLN and government loans. Better in this share than out I'd say .

[wwick] 08/7/2018 16:22

Mark, that is so funny " 15p be in your view be a heavily discounted placing yet in your view also we should have a valution of 10p ". What a total pleb, hilarious.

[mount teide] 08/7/2018 16:22

'Drill 8-10 wells per year targeting >10% year-on-year production growth in near term - with a 11% annual decline rate'

If we assume a starting base production of 3,000 bopd - then a 300 bopd annual production growth rate with a 11% decline rate means the average target production for each well will be 55-60 bopd.

Which suggests they may be focusing on the shallow plays which historically have a higher decline rate than the deeper plays targeted by TXP since June 2017 - which have seen negligible decline over the first year and are still producing at a collective average of circa 100 bopd.

It begs the question - if TRIN is targeting the shallow plays - why? When TXP has proved the concept of targeting deeper plays - which to date have double the production potential and slower decline rates?

[richyggg] 07/7/2018 20:36

This is LW425's MO - he is looking to buy.

[mark10101] 07/7/2018 18:06

LW425, what oil price is TRIN and WH modelling their numbers on? I’ll give you a clue, it is in the region, that while SPT exists, that it is pretty much the worse place to be. Meanwhile we chug along at $70 WTI....

Second question, that none of you numpty type posters ever answer, how can 15p in your view be a heavily discounted placing yet in your view also we should have a valution of 10p?

Numpty away, as each time you have posted in the past it has been just prior to one of TRINS strong runs.

[uapatel] 07/7/2018 18:04

Although I am upset, to say the least, at the level of discount for the Monies raised. I do recognise that going forward we are now a different company and well placed financially to grow the business.

Any feedback from those that are making an effort to attend the EGM is very much appreciated.

Good luck all holders

[dunderheed] 07/7/2018 16:13

LW425

8 Feb '17 - 12:07 - 338 of 6457
0 6 0
Even I can see the extreme undervaluation here. As many know I am ultra cynical but Trin is an 18p to 30p stock all day long with medium term upside on that.

Company is making profits everyday with stable long term production. Cheapest oiler on the stock market in a stable, safe jurisdiction

[lw425] 07/7/2018 15:39

and don't bother going to the meeting in Edinburgh. It's a long way to travel for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Save your money and donate to your local food bank. Do some good for once!

GO!

[dunderheed] 07/7/2018 15:33

LW no, you are "inferring" from I suppose what the figures are metaphorically "implying"?

Ross - I know it well geyser. I'll contact me brokers and I may turn up - only because it's a relatively short walk from where I'm currently staying as I'm on an extended holiday at the moment!

[lw425] 07/7/2018 15:24

Hang on a sec!

If no FCF from onshore until 2020 that therefore directly implies cash on balance sheet will not increase until at least 2020 as it infers that all revenues will need to be ploughed into drilling to arrest the decline curve going forward.

The huge discount on the placing was for a reason. You've all been stiched up like kippers, egging each other on ramping the share price up to 25p without any understanding of the business model and decline curves.


BUSTED!!!

[lw425] 07/7/2018 15:14

So if FCF from existing wells won't happen until 2020 are we saying that the onshore business is loss making until 2020? Is that what we're saying? That is shocking if that's the case.

I demand immediate clarification.

I wonder if there has been a shock sudden decline in production which would explain the large discounted placement?

The penny drops?

So each drill costing over 1m, dribbles out 100 barrels a say? Hardly enough to run the family car really!

I value the shares at 10p

[lw425] 07/7/2018 14:57

Gabriel

The problem here is that posters on this thread spun the general yarn for 18 months that TRIN were making $1m a month. PE of 4 blah, blah, blah.

Now someone has posted that FCF from onshore wells wont happen until 2020!

What is going on?

I can see this heading sub 15p soon as shareholders wise up and sell.

Also if onshore self funding from 2020 does this mean they will do another highly dilutive placement?

GO!

[lw425] 07/7/2018 14:39

It seems to me you have been diluted by what say 25% for 10% annual growth in production.

Therefore it's logical to state that it will take three years to return to a 21p share price.

GO!

[lw425] 07/7/2018 14:34

post 1161

Free-cash flow generating from 2020, self-funding new Onshore wells thereafter
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTF!!!!

No wonder they needed all this dosh.

Something that was never discussed was at what point decline was due to set in on existing wells.

So spend say 1.2m and get a well capable of dribbling out 100 barrels a day. Is that it? WOW

[dunderheed] 07/7/2018 14:08

I 'may' get there!
Do we need proof of ownership?