Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[2prsimo] 09/7/2018 11:40

The placing has caused a serious trust issue I'm afraid - TXP is the best of the Trinidad Tiddlers that's for sure

[marvelman] 09/7/2018 11:34

One could easily argue that there seems to be a transfer of shares from TRIN to TXP this morning not sure how much of that is related to the comments and change of sentiment given out here over the past few days. Beginning to wonder who actually is invested here now.

[nafafa] 09/7/2018 11:21

MT there has been ample opportunity for shareholders to buy at around 16p over the last few weeks,at a premium of 5%. I have taken advantage on the basis that my application at 15p is likelty to be scaled back. Yes, I would have liked to see a bigger allocation to holders but I don’t have a problem with allocation to management who may well be sitting on losses from previous purchases.

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/7/2018 11:16

It's pretty obvious you are here to ramp TXP. Every post from you has TXP crowbarred in. Your argument seems to be we should now disbelieve everything Trin says because they have 'form' and if only Trinity behaved like TXP. If you believe TXP have fully funded 20 wells for next year, you may be in for a shock.

I don't like the placement either. I don't agree with the size of the placing, the price, the allocation. Im even unsure it is necessary.

But Im not going to be bitter about it. BOD are committees, they aren't going to always be saying same thing and strategies shift.

If prospect of higher production from horizontal or directional drilling has pushed this placing forward, that may be worthwhile reason enough for placing. Perhaps new guy on BOD has pushed horizontal drlling.

We will find out more this week.

[mount teide] 09/7/2018 10:20

WITJ - that may be one interpretation - others clearly see it differently.

Particularly since this management already has previous 'form' - putting out releases publicising how much they are ahead with the debt repayments/schedule for CLN's etc - only to then deliver a coup de gras of a huge dilution of our investments out of the blue.


TXP will become T&T's largest onshore producer when they announce the production performance of wells 4 and 5 of the 2018 programme later this month.

With another 5 wells to be drilled over the next 4 months and 20 scheduled for 2019 along with 4 low cost ultra high potential exploration wells(2,000+ bopd targets scheduled for drilling in H1/2019) - the onshore production gap between TXP and TRIN is then likely to only grow over the next 18 months and possibly by a huge margin if any of the huge gas exploration prospects with up to 2,000ft of potential net pay prove successful(each gas prospect is potentially much larger than Shell's adjacent Central Block gas fields) which have direct pipeline access to T&T's world class LNG export terminal, where Shell recently became the largest shareholder.

TXP have clearly stolen a march on TRIN who are now playing catch up - a mistake which has cost many of us dearly by resulting in a huge dilution of our TRIN investments - not that it will worry the management and its friends, who have benefitted hugely from this arrangement at our expense.


AIMHO/DYOR

[dunderheed] 09/7/2018 09:48

I do think they already have firmer plans - which will come out over time - probably 'they' just don't want to over promise and under deliver.
What they have provided so far does not appear to be pushing the limits so here's hoping for some good upward production profiles over the medium term.

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/7/2018 09:26

They haven't "put out potential production increase figures for the 10 well programme with horizontal drilling equivalent to between 50% and 200% annual growth "

There is no such commitment!

They haven't even bought the 3D seismic study to enable horizontal drilling. All they are doing just now is highlighting the potential.

When they they have firm plans, they may put out a firmer target for production, but for now it is just a broad stroke statement that they are targeting very significant production growth.

[mount teide] 09/7/2018 09:07

That sounds a very weak defence.

To put out potential production increase figures for the 10 well programme with horizontal drilling equivalent to between 50% and 200% annual growth and then suggest you are targeting greater than 10% annual production growth is simply disingenuous.

TXP specifically stated per well increases (and exceeded it by 50%) and an annual production growth from the initial 14 well 17/18 programme which equated to circa 40% - which they are close to achieving after just 9 wells. And all achieved WITHOUT any horizontal drilling.

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/7/2018 08:53

They don't know how fast exactly production will grow. The double digit production growth 'target' is just a broad stroke statement.


Rather than 10%, it could mean 99% or 6000 bopd in 2019. But probably doesnt mean 10% or 99%.


It doesn't make sense to extrapolate such a general comment back to individual wells.

[mount teide] 09/7/2018 08:32

WITJ

Why say production rates of 2-6 times current rates from each well with horizontal drilling and then say they are targeting GREATER than 10% growth?

55-60 bopd per well would generate that result!

Annual production / Performance per well required (10 wells)
Greater than 10% growth - 55-60 bopd
Greater than 15% growth - 75 bopd
Greater then 20% growth - 90 bopd
Greater than 25% growth - 105 bopd

Considering TXP achieved 100 bopd without horizontal drilling by just targeting the deeper plays - and if TRIN management claim horizontal drilling means "production rates of 2 - 6 times current rates ' - this would suggest potential production rates of up to 300 bopd and 600 bopd per well for the shallow and deeper plays respectively.

If this is the expectation why set the annual production rate growth target as greater than 55-60 bopd performance from each of the 10 wells,(where is the ambition?), when they are making claims that with horizontal drilling, one well of the 10 wells programme could deliver up to circa 10% annual production growth on its own!

Makes little sense!

I shall be writing to the management to ask for clarification of this matter, because the annual production growth figure target and potential performance claims from horizontal drilling per well make little sense.

The production performance increase claims from the horizontal drilling suggests that at a mid 4 times increase over the current 75 bopd per well - it MEANS potential annual production growth of 90%(300 bopd per well) ! So why put out greater than 10% as the target! Seems hugely unambitious if the performance enhancement potential of horizontal drilling is credible.


AIMHO/DYOR

[acsatix] 09/7/2018 08:28

the message is muddled as it is not clear if the onshore drilling is the one to be self funding after 2020 or the whole company. but I have to say so far we were told every bit they were doing was self funded and cash generative due to the high margin. Also is the 10 per cent production increase of onshore or of the whole production? This is materially different! please clarity if any of u goes to AGM.

[marvelman] 09/7/2018 07:49

The voice of reason finally emerges..thank you WITJ

[husted] 09/7/2018 07:46

The new wells have stabilised at 70 bopd. If horizontal drilling can produce up to six times that much that is pretty good. 420 bopd would be more than 10% growth from a single well.

[whiskeyinthejar] 08/7/2018 20:55

">10% year-on-year production growth in near term"

means GREATER THAN 10% growth. So current production of 3000 bopd does not imply only 300 bopd.

TRIN are just repeating old message that they are targeting double digit production growth every year. At 3,045 bopd they model that they have $10.3 million per year of cash flow to reinvest in the business, obviously this snowballs as production grows.

Trinity say they intend to use horizontal drilling; and say this means "production rates of 2-6 times current rates".

[esmerelda] 08/7/2018 20:37

I am a holder of shares in TRIN and have applied for more in the offer but I can't agree with your assessment GO. We have had a dilution greater than what would have happened had the CLNs converted (and of course the CLNs have converted, albeit at a higher price). They had cash in the bank that would have paid off the debt and the CLNs. We were/are expecting news of the sale of the West Coast assets that would have provided funds for investment in Q4 18. Unless there is some pressing need for funds in Q3 18 then this simply an exercise in management feathering their own nest. Of course this is a good share to invest in if you buy now.

[lw425] 08/7/2018 20:18

60 barrels a day?

Really what is the point?

Is that it?

[mount teide] 08/7/2018 19:06

Ross - why do you think they are suggesting an estimated performance of circa 55-60 bopd rather than something closer to what TXP achieved?

[mount teide] 08/7/2018 16:53

Ross - thanks will do.

The maths suggests the management are expecting 55-60bopd per well production performance. Why so low?

'they confirm that the wells in question are to be 4000 - 6000 feet,'

TXP's 4 wells drilled in 2017 were 5,360, 5,627, 7,340 and 6,926ft - an average of 6,313ft.

It would be good to know that TRIN's drilling programme will be targeting the deeper plays - particularly considering the guidance given regarding cost to drill compared to what TXP has reported for their 10 well programme this year.

[imjustdandy] 08/7/2018 16:28

Bottom line is - trinity on a sound footing, generating piles of cash and killed off the CLN and government loans. Better in this share than out I'd say .

[wwick] 08/7/2018 16:22

Mark, that is so funny " 15p be in your view be a heavily discounted placing yet in your view also we should have a valution of 10p ". What a total pleb, hilarious.