Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 19/7/2024 18:30

Prices looking firm. Tharisa basket price at $1,408.71, up slightly on average in first half of $1,344, whilst SA chrome concentrate at $322.5/t up on average of $288/t in first half.

[whitehunter] 12/7/2024 08:23

Normal reaction here to news even when it reads well. Plenty of traders/short term holders will be up on rise from 48p so likely a bit of impatience and looking for more exciting stocks. Cutting dividend and ongoing Karo cloud have damaged support for share price

[121spa] 11/7/2024 22:11

Any idea why the shares have been selling off?

[whitehunter] 10/7/2024 10:13

Good to have the buybacks to sweep up any “sell on news” shares.

[stemis] 10/7/2024 09:38

Reassuring update.

[deadly] 23/5/2024 22:57

Strange to have a TS 2 days before the interims.
The drop in earnings hasn't affected the price much.

[stemis] 22/5/2024 10:51

Posted on another chat board by Tharisa (presumably by Ilja Graulich, Head of Investor Relations and Communications):-

Peel Hunt comment on trading statement

News: Tharisa has released the usual JSE-mandated trading update ahead of the interim FY24 results. This update highlights an expected EPS range of USc12.5-13.5, well ahead of our USc11 estimate. While the PGM market has remained subdued, the chrome concentrate market has stayed strong. The comment that adjusted (or headline) EPS and basic EPS are in the same range indicates to us that the upcoming results will be 'clean'.

Peel Hunt view: While the YoY comparisons are not favourable, this comes as no surprise given the prevailing PGM basket prices and we would use any weakness in the Tharisa share price to add to positions

[martinus67] 21/5/2024 17:35

Tharisa PLC (LSE:THS, JSE:THA, OTC:TIHRF), the platinum and chrome miner, said headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months ended March 31 are expected to be between 12.5 cents and 13.5 cents per share with a tolerance of 10%. This is a decrease of 23.3% to 29.0% relative to the HEPS of 17.6 cents per share for the comparable period last year.Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 12.5 cents and 3.5 cents per share with a tolerance of 10%, a decrease of between 22.4% to 28.2% relative to the EPS of 17.4 cents a year earlier.Earnings have been impacted by the nearly 40% drop in PGM prices received and increased cost pressures, according to Tharisa's statement.https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1048094/tharisa-earnings-hit-by-weak-platinum-prices-and-higher-costs-1048094.html

[stemis] 21/5/2024 13:43

SteMiS 6 Mar '24 - 15:32 - 1874 of 1895 Edit

It will be interesting to see the interims. Based on production and average basket prices in Q1 and Q2, turnover should be marginally ahead of the comparable period last year, with stronger chrome prices offsetting weaker PGM. Obviously I don't know about costs, however in comparable H1 last year company did EPS of 14p and generated (pre capex & dividends) $96m of cashflow, after a positive $23m movement in working capital.

At current share price that's an annualised P/E of 1.7

Looks like an EPS of 9.8p - 10.6p for the 6 months. Obviously I'd have preferred 14p but neverthless, despite a 50% rise in the share price since my post, it's still on a P/E of 3.5 - 3.8 with net cash of 18.5p/share.

[stemis] 04/5/2024 23:33

Strange headline when it seems to be Tharisa taking the activists to court

[mjneish] 04/5/2024 22:22

Looks like THS may be a bit distracted at the moment.

[stemis] 10/4/2024 12:48

Comparison is really against Q2 2023

[deadly] 10/4/2024 12:08

Q2 Production slightly lower.

[faz] 09/4/2024 07:26

Platinum up strongly yesterday - $1000 in sight

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 09:56

We do need China to turn a corner to go higher though. I'm also not really sure that there is such a future in diesel engines to support catalysts as they make out but its a hard call.

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 09:48

I doubled my position near the bottom. SteMiS you are spot on with cyclicality. Chrome has also saved their bacon.

[nigelpm] 04/4/2024 21:40

Yes, ridiculous - Karo could yet be ok and then where does the share price go?

[stemis] 04/4/2024 19:07

Even after the rise it's currently on a valuation of < 1 x historic ebitda. I guess we'll have to see how this year pans out. PGM basket price is lower, chrome price higher. But it's an indication of the pessimism surrounding the share.

[nigelpm] 04/4/2024 18:18

Yes stemis. The bears likely pulled out right at the bottom. Often the way it goes. I do understand the concerns of course but based on factually inaccurate statements then corrected by the company.

[stemis] 04/4/2024 14:49

Actually, although I accept the figure is likely to be a bit out of date, as at 12 October 2022 the cash cost of Karo was $1,096/PGM oz. Current Karo basket price is $1,240.61.

It's excitable nonsense to claim that Tharisa have 'bet the whole company's future on Karos'. Net of Tharisa's net cash, the remaining investment in Karo (if they decided to fund it themselves) represents about 19 months ebitda.

However this is the thing about cyclical industries (mining, shipping etc). When the price is low, everyone assumes it'll always stay so and so no-one invests. Then there is a shortage of capacity, demand picks up, prices surge and everyone assumes it'll last for ever and piles in with new investment. Which causes an overcapacity and prices crash. Repeat and repeat.

No investment advice but the right time to invest is at the bottom of that cycle when optimism is at it's lowest. It wouldn't take much of an improvement in the basket price for Karo to be significantly profitable

Whatever they decide, Tharisa management have a lot of skin in the game here. I doubt they are making their decisions lightly...

[tigerbythetail] 04/4/2024 14:00

The rise is welcome. The buyback is welcome.
But the essential problem here remains unaddressed. The company is pouring money into the building of Karo in Zimbabwe, but the Karo PGM basket price remains far lower than required to make the new mine even vaguely viable.
How does the mine get finished, except on yet more Tharisa money? I don't believe they will be able to raise non-recourse debt finance for it given its economics and the jurisdiction.
Will the new mine ever break-even operationally, let alone pay back the capital invested in it and actually make money?
Can the Zimbabwe government be trusted to stick to their side of the bargain?
Management here have bet the whole company's future on Karo. I don't see any significant signs yet of the PGM market turning and improving. Therefore, I'm happy to watch and see how things develop from here.

[stemis] 04/4/2024 12:45

Pretty much back to where it was before some woeful financial analysis on London South East scared a few holders out of their shares. On the bright side I suppose it provided the company with an opportunity to buy back a few shares at a bargain price...

[ianb5004] 04/4/2024 12:27

Rising nicely since the buy back announcement. I am reliably informed there has been a large holder who wanted out which has trashed the sp, compounded by pi,s panicked sells.
Nothing like a low share price to trash sentiment. Logic can go out of the window during such times.

Ths remains a profitable divi payer thats sat at a valuation far below its worth.

[theapiarist] 26/3/2024 08:09

At these prices the company are getting a bargain.

[faz] 26/3/2024 07:21

Share buy back and why not-they have the money and the share price is way under what it it should be (as they themselves point out!).