Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[crooky1967] 08/3/2024 20:40

Look like a larger seller as well. Has been a few 250k sells over the past few days.

[gkace] 06/3/2024 15:48

Anyone noticed Palladium and platinum price today lol

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 15:42

Yup - too cheap - Karo notwithstanding - I think the discount has been hugely overdone by some nervous PI's and lots following in their footsteps.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 15:32

It will be interesting to see the interims. Based on production and average basket prices in Q1 and Q2, turnover should be marginally ahead of the comparable period last year, with stronger chrome prices offsetting weaker PGM. Obviously I don't know about costs, however in comparable H1 last year company did EPS of 14p and generated (pre capex & dividends) $96m of cashflow, after a positive $23m movement in working capital.

At current share price that's an annualised P/E of 1.7

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 15:10

Influential Twitter poster back in :

#THS I have bought back some. A 48p share price is just too low giving it a market cap of £144m and last reported net cash of $109m. Chrome prices are still really high c$290/t, shorts seem to be closing on Palladium and Platinum/Rhodium are due a move up. May not do much in the short term but I just can't sit outside at this price

[tigerbythetail] 06/3/2024 13:57

This really isn't a case of foolish PI impatience vs. wise management pursuing a long term strategy that will eventually reward patient shareholders.
The Karo (mis)adventure has the potential to go horribly wrong for Tharisa. It could drive the whole company into the ground.
That is why this company trades on a valuation that, on the face of it, seems derisory.
A reminder - just a few short years ago chrome traded at $120/t, not $300/t. If the chrome price drops and PGM prices don't pick up, then Tharisa will be in an unenviable position.

[nakedmolerat] 06/3/2024 13:12

depends what your strategy is

wait for growth, upward trend of share price, positive results

or just hold whatever the price because it looks a good buy or is cheap?

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 11:34

100% Stemis. You see it regularly on these boards, twitter and LSE - so much short term impatience and gamblers barely looking in front of their noses.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 10:34

Directors usually have a longer time frame than most PI's, who just want to see the share price go up in the short term, take a profit and move on, even if it means liquidating the company. They are also closer to the market than most of us. I don't imagine the board of THS took the decision lightly to invest large amount of cash (42% of which would accrue to them) in Karo. If Karo is worthless, as the share price suggests, then a great chunk of the PGM mining industry is worthless and I find that hard to believe. But in the end we will see...

[whitehunter] 06/3/2024 10:25

When Tharisa invest cash in Karo, implicitly 42% of it is technically attributable to the largest shareholders so it is not as if they are bystanders. Though the prospect of a return on invest is harder to judge atm.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 10:16

It's also worth bearing in mind that THS management own 42% of the company so they are hardly indifferent to shareholder value.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 10:13

Bit of a misrepresentation, Sotolo

What Tharisa said was "I have reported such [comments] to the LSE, particular those referring to Tharisa as being corrupt or insinuating that we are not aware of our regulatory obligations wrt to disclosing information. We have also notified our legal team of these comments."

[tigerbythetail] 06/3/2024 10:08

Hi Sotolo!
I don't really know what to say - except I'm sorry that this has turned out like this (at least for now).
The recent share price drop here has shocked me. The Tharisa mine (in South Africa) is still decently profitable, thanks to chrome prices, but the market doesn't value that at all.
I do think platinum prices will eventually recover somewhat, based on industrial demand, but I also think that palladium may have further to fall. Platinum seems to have almost entirely lost its role as a precious metal / store of value. Gold is at all-time highs but platinum hasn't reacted at all.
IMO, the sensible course of action for Tharisa is to stop funding Karo immediately. But I don't think Tharisa's BoD are capable of making such a hard decision. Which means they will get dragged in deeper and deeper. I can't imagine who would lend them money for a project with such terrible economics without a guarantee from Tharisa itself. Indeed, I can't really imagine why anybody would lend them any money at all for Karo.
So here we are. I hope this is the bottom. It really should be, but I don't trust management to make the necessary decisions, so I'll steer clear for now.

[sotolo] 05/3/2024 17:54

Well Tiger very prescient of you to sell. In the less than 4 weeks since the price has fallen by a quarter. I sadly held on, despite one huge danger sign, the company threatening its shareholders for posting on lse, really scary and brutal in my opinion, but maybe I am delicate in South African terms. At least it appears one can still post relatively freely here but not of course your post with a word to do with soda water that I cannot repeat despite it is in your post. If the company is that rattled I wonder whether it will raise the debt it needs for Karo given the lowly capitalisation now, you seem to have been prescient and wise. Now Inwish Inhad held on to Centamin and never switched here. Do you think it will recover or do you still not hold much hope for it?

[stemis] 23/2/2024 17:50

Here's the last detailed update on Karos

hxxps://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/presentation/2022/20221012-tharisa-kmh-marketing-presentation-october-2022-final.pdf

At the time the cash cost was US$1 096/PGM oz (exc royalties & tax). Forecast production 194k oz pa. Company has a 5 year tax holiday from operations. Average PGM basket price in quarter ended 31 December 2023 was $1,344

[stemis] 23/2/2024 08:47

Clearly, all haven't 'dumped it' as otherwise it would have no shareholders. Amazingly, the same number of shares are owned now as were a year ago. Every seller has a buyer.

[nakedmolerat] 22/2/2024 23:44

the chart is awful, nobody has confidence in karo and money still seems to be thrown at a mine that will be lose making, unless prices return to where they once were

this is why all have dumped it, i have no confidence in the board at all

[andydaf] 15/2/2024 19:46

Time will tell here but i do not see how anyone can predict what pgm prices will be in 2025.I hope they recover and karo is a success but i can not be sure and no one can.At the end of the day Tharisa will keep financing it and thats the gamble.PGM prices improve and Tharisa is worth multiples of what it is today.Karo fails and at least we are left with a circa 2million ton chrome producer paying 15%npat dividend.Remenber management have plenty of skin in the game here.GLA

[stemis] 15/2/2024 08:44

Investors wonder why companies are reluctant to interact with PI's.

I'm not a great fan of LSE. In my (albeit fairly limited interaction - mainly DX., SQZ and THS) I've found it the source of some absolutely woeful analysis, which is then swallowed wholesale by gullible readers.

[nigelpm] 14/2/2024 20:09

Legal team have been notified also. Ouch.

[tigerbythetail] 14/2/2024 18:19

I've been reading the posts on LSE again. They are well worth studying carefully.
However you dice and slice it, it seems to me that the very substantial Karo investment has been horrendously misjudged.
I don't believe that a sudden boom in PGM prices will come to the rescue of the project. In particular, I believe that palladium prices will now stay down for years to come. And I don't believe that Tharisa will be able to attract external money to the project either; the economics simply aren't there.
So (IMO) it comes down to this:
a. Tharisa come to their senses, cut their losses, and freeze investment in Karo. (Which possibly leads to it being seized back by the Zimbabwean government, as happened to the project's previous owner).
b. Tharisa throw more and more good money after bad and end up funding the entire project. That would eat up the entire profits from South Africa for several years and depends on chrome prices staying high, which is uncertain.
All in all, it's a terrible position to be in.
In normal circumstances I'd say the CEO should walk the plank for an error of this magnitude, but that's not going to happen here. So most likely Tharisa will just go on stubbornly funding Karo and shareholders will go on suffering.
It's a pity, but IMO that's how it is.

[nigelpm] 08/2/2024 09:57

Thanks Tiger - much appreciated.

I'm sure if the outlook changes there will be plenty of time to re-invest - with something like Tharisa the upside isn't really going anywhere and I doubt it would jump on anything other than a bid approach and I'd see that as highly unlikely.