Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[mjneish] 19/5/2023 11:41

If you look in note 7, the cost of sales is broken down there. The main one is change in inventories, which has swung from USD -12.9 million to USD +14.9 million. All other factors more or less cancel out.

I don't know what "change in inventories" means in this context, so could someone maybe explain? Thanks.

[whitehunter] 19/5/2023 09:57

“White hunter, ye if dividend was maintained but it won’t be“

Wrong again Sotolo

[moneyman50] 19/5/2023 09:09

Sorry post below should read costs of sales up $30 million!

[tigerbythetail] 19/5/2023 09:08

I agree it would be good to know how much of the increased cost of sales is down to one-off factors (i.e. flooding), how much of it is down to increased fuel and power costs (which may come down again), how much is down to currency movements (which again may reverse), and how much is effectively permanent.
Also, you're right to wonder how well Vulcan is working.
All that said, the results are as I expected, the dividend is welcome, and I'm optimistic for the future. The only reason I'm not buying more this morning is that I worry about South Africa in general, and I want to keep my exposure to it within limits.

[moneyman50] 19/5/2023 07:47

The interim results are slightly disappointing -turnover is virtually the same but cost of sales are up $40 million.Why have production costs increased so much and where are the supposed Vulcan efficiencies

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 18/5/2023 11:31

Is South Africa becoming uninvestable?

[andydaf] 18/5/2023 06:42

Bought a few more yesterday,lots of political risk but i take the view its everywhere including the west.Rand has suffered but this should help Tharisa.Crucial thing is where pgms go from here.Tharisa aside from being in south africa and zimbabwe is stupid cheap imho but like anything its a gamble.GLA

[tigerbythetail] 17/5/2023 08:52

The 3pm RNS caught me out yesterday, so I'm coming to this late...
Market over-reacting. Happy to buy at 84p. Not really expecting a quick return from this (except dividends), but looked at in the medium term, this has to be a great price to buy in at.
My chief worry is South Africa completely falling apart. So I'm buying within limits.

[lennonsalive] 17/5/2023 07:12

Why sneak it out at 3pm thinking nobody would nice

[sotolo] 16/5/2023 22:53

I think a bid is highly unlikely as the family are very unlikely to sell at this low value.

[moneyman50] 16/5/2023 19:10

A pe of 4 is very low and whatever the company does its shareprice gets hammered.
Some shortsighted investors appear to have sold today because of the fall in the EPS which is only due to the Karo fair value adjustment!
The chromium price at its current level will go a long way to compensating for the lower Pgm prices -it is still hovering around $300 level and Pgm and chrome production levels suffered due to bad weather in the first halve.The actual EPS from operations has increased and therefore the dividend should not be cut unless the directors wish to crash the shareprice further -.perhaps someone will put us out of our misery and make an offer for the company.PGM prices are cyclical and may well increase

[stemis] 16/5/2023 16:32

Nothing in trading statement that should change markets view of PGM price

[sotolo] 16/5/2023 15:50

Rear view mirror, PGM price considerably lower now than ave for first half and chromium doesn’t make up for it, so PE more like 4 and if PGM stays lower then 5, and only so low because share price so down.

[stemis] 16/5/2023 15:24

H1 profits 17-18c/share (= 13.6p-14.4p) so currently on an annualised P/E of 3.3-3.1...and the price falls

[tigerbythetail] 12/5/2023 18:32

More on the previous subject - including on possible / probable US sanctions actions...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/12/southafrica-a81125
For sheer wrongness and boneheaded stupidity this story takes some beating. It's self-harm.
It won't affect Tharisa much directly - they sell mostly to China. But I can see South Africa getting a country rating downgrade on the back of this.

[tigerbythetail] 11/5/2023 21:50

This will act as a deadweight on the rand and all South African stocks:
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/us-accuses-south-africa-of-providing-arms-to-russia-reports
It's frustrating that the S.A. government could be so stupid and wrong-headed. I imagine economic sanctions of some kind or another will follow in due course.
It's not like South Africa didn't have enough problems already, without adding to them, is it?

[moneyman50] 11/5/2023 18:16

Soloto Per half year production report average Pgm price per ounce is down $376 from 6 months ended 31/03/2022 (the Ukraine uplift in PGM prices really only impacted the second half of last year when chrome prices were a lot lower than they are now) but average chrome per ton is up $72 per ton compared to the six months ended 31/03/2022 ,more favourable exchange rate,shipping costs down $20 per ton for chrome and no BEE to deduct this time-took approx $11 million dollars of profit last year and four times as much net cash compared to last year despite some funds being pumped into Karo-agree let’s see who is right -perhaps you could set out your profit calculation to see who is closest-trust you appreciate the impact of the Karo carrying value adjustment last year which had no impact on dividend.

[sotolo] 11/5/2023 08:27

Interim 2021 4c,2022 3c 2023 2c-2.5c?
Profits steadily falling, so dividend too
Let’s see and hope you are right and I am wrong
Share price doesn’t say so

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 19:02

Sotolo-suggest you read the company’s RNS dated the 20th May 2022-this explains the difference between the EPS that includes accounting for the “fair value” gain on the Karo acquisition and the EPS excluding this transaction (ie the profits generated by the company’s commercial operation-Pgm and chrome production.)This is the figure the dividend payment is based (ie circa 15% of normal operating profit after tax).
This EPS figure is circa 16 cents for the six months ended 31 March 2022 and forms the basis of the dividend calculation (3 cents ie circa 18% of profits after tax) and I expect this figure to be slightly higher for the period ended 31 March 2023 hence I don’t see a dividend cut.
The fair value adjustment on the Karo acquisition was a non cash transaction,hence it would have no effect on the level of the dividend payout otherwise the dividend last June would have been between 5 cents and 6 cents not 3 cents.

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 16:33

Last year eps (excluding Karo uplift) 16 c on which dividend payout is based.
This year if profit for first 6 months could be circa §60 million (basic calculation) I have done which equates to approx 20c per share (in the same region as Mike on the other side) Last year dividend 3 c per share.I am anticipating a turnover circa $320 million (based on half yearly PGM and chrome prices) Gross profit circa $115 million -admin circa $25 million tax circa $25 million giving profit after tax of $65 million rounded down to $60 million .
What is your estimated profit .My gross profit percentage is circa 35% (as per last year) but this could be higher based on higher chrome prices and lower shipment costs

So for dividend to be reduced profit after tax for six months would have to probably be below $55 million.(remember shareholders profit no longer diluted by BEM interest)
I agree the market is discounting Karo but this has no effect on the current profitability of the South African operation and has no impact on profitability until production commences in approx a year time when pgm prices could be higher

[sotolo] 10/5/2023 14:50

White hunter, ye if dividend was maintained but it won’t be, Tharisa are quite clear that they will give us about 17% of profits which will be reduced. The chrome increase outweighed by pgm fall. Also Moneyman cash will be way down as now going into Karo. Finally to both of you the market is spooked by Karo that doesn’t have the chrome and is getting close to break even and soon loss at current pgm prices, so good wrong up all our lovely if reduced profits into a potentially loss making hole. Hopefully platinum and palladium might save us

[sotolo] 10/5/2023 14:47

Moneyman eps for first half was more than double what you say at around 33c. Mike over in LSE is actually saying will be down around 40% so dividend will tumbLe with it. I agree

[whitehunter] 10/5/2023 11:45

Added more today. Long term hold for me. Good value too in short term if dividend maintained.

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 11:32

Unfortunately everyone seems to be concentrating on the rhodium element of the PGM basket and all the plus side of the company’s operation has been ignored.(rhodium price is still above the long term price prior to the Ukrainian war spike),At 31/03/2022 the net cash position was $25.9 million-at 31/03/2023 it is $106.8 million -a four fold increase -assuming there is no major change in credit terms for both trade debtors and creditors I can not see how profits (ignoring the carrying value of the Karo investment adjustment included in the accounts to 31/03/2022) have fallen compared to the six months ended 31/03/2022.Yes the Pgm price has fallen but the chrome price has risen significantly with a material fall in shipping costs to factor in.According SMM the chrome price for 42% chrome concentrate has been increasing over the last couple of days which bodes well for the second half.Unfortunately LSE won’t let me sign into my account hence posting here.
Mike 1959 on LSe is predicting a H1 PAT of $57 million which would give an EPS of approx 19 cents a share compared to circa 15 cents a share last year but is predicting a dividend cut? 15% of 19 cents equates to approx 3 cents a share which is the same as last year-The karo fair value adjustment was not factored into last years dividend calculation.