Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 11/1/2023 09:38

SLP is a good company, and it has been good to me. But I agree that it is not a particularly interesting investment at its current price and with its current prospects.
(BTW, SLP does of course produce a lot of chrome. It just gives it away for free to its "host miner" partner).
THS is objectively a much bigger company - about twice the production of PGMs plus large volumes of chrome + the Karo build.
That SLP currently has a similar market cap to THS is objectively bonkers. And I write this as an SLP admirer.
I have to agree about JLP - too much Colin Bird (still). (And don't think Leon Coetzer hasn't learnt many lessons from the old master of AIM!).

[1jbrisky] 11/1/2023 08:51

Sotolo,
I agree entirely. The fact that the SLP share price is even within 20% of ours, let alone in front, is short term crazy.
I posted similar a few months ago. I have until recently, always been invested in both companies (but never, by the way JLP, I have a Colin Bird aversion) but I now view SLP as a mature business and I'm no longer invested. Karo gives us the opportunity to pretty much double the size and profit of THS within the next 2 years and in my view is very much a growth company.
Chrome sales and the margin of error given the share price mitigate any Zim geographical risk. The short term reduced Divi is what many are clearly steering clear of but over 5%, and very safe, is decent.

[sotolo] 11/1/2023 08:33

Not a silly question.
A. We are very roughly around half profit chrome now, with the rising chrome price SLP is all PGM
B. Their basket is worth about 15% more as 60% rh while we are 50%
C. We only give 17% of profit dividend while they give far more hence higher value
D. BUT we are a potential growth company as we are using the rest of the profit to the build the new Karo mine in Zimbabwe, which will dramatically increase PGM output
E. So we are diversified in PGM and Chrome with a very long lif mine and Karo coming along while SLP is a wasting asset
Overall I would say while SLP is jam today we should be a lot of jam tomorrow if all goes right, a growth company with greater share potential of behind SLP temporarily in this time of very high and risky investment.
Anyone else do say me wrong

[robizm] 11/1/2023 07:40

Silly comparison as slp does not produce chrome.

[farrugia] 11/1/2023 07:36

how does this company compare in production compared to Sylvania Platinum?

[ntv] 10/1/2023 12:15

According to their twitter feed it appears that the current chrome price is $260.
That is a significant increase in the last week or so

[mfhmfh] 09/1/2023 18:17

Q1 production report on 11.01.23.

[tigerbythetail] 03/1/2023 12:04

Hi Nimrod!
Lots of issues with deep mining in South Africa. Eskom performance still woeful.

[nimrod22] 02/1/2023 23:54

Platinum price up 24% in three months

[tigerbythetail] 31/12/2022 12:42

Hi 5teadyEddie!
And yet mining companies do operate successfully in Zimbabwe. Take a look at CMCL (FWIW, I've been a small shareholder there for years). By and large, my attitude is that Zimbabwe has had its nightmare, and nobody but nobody wants to go back to those dark days.
There is also another question which needs to be asked...
Let us assume that the Karo project in Zimbabwe is an utter disaster. It is built at a cost of $400m and then the whole thing is nationalised / destroyed by an asteroid from space on its first day of operation.
Obviously, that would wipe out Tharisa's existing cash and its expected cash flows for the next two years. But Tharisa would still be left with the Tharisa mine with its long life. Wouldn't the shares still be worth 100p (or perhaps more), even in that most extreme case?!?

[tigerbythetail] 31/12/2022 12:33

Hi Sotolo!
Sorry for the slow reply - Santa brought me Covid for Christmas, an unwelcome present but all well now.
2022 not bad for me, up about 20%, mainly thanks to selling out of certain positions in time! As far as I can tell, not to lose money in 2022 counts as some kind of achievement. Yes, I've noticed Centamin recovering, but I missed out as I'm still cold on gold. Frankly, apart from a few specific local opportunities, I don't know where to invest. I think 2023 will be a tough year on the markets as well.
BTW, there's an interesting post on the LSE board where Visitor works out whether THS can finance Caro from existing cash, the already announced bond, and expected cashflow. The answer - with some caveats - is yes.

[5teadyeddie] 30/12/2022 11:21

I've just been lucky enough to spend a few days on the Zambezi pre-Christmas. It's very obvious that there's plenty of investment in new tourist lodges on the Zambian side, but nothing new on the Zimbabwean side at all: the newest lodge appears to be Rukomechi, refurbished in 2008. I'm not sure if the problem is land rights issues, but no-one appears to be confident enough to invest in Zimabawean tourism in that area.

Flying back, the Emirates plane goes Dubai-Lusaka-Harare (where it refuels) then Lusaka-Dubai. Except it couldn't refuel in Harare because there wasn't any. (We had to divert to Dar-es-Salaam to get enough, but that's by-the-by). Life,fuel and electrical power in Zim are difficult: my farming cousin is trying to dry tobacco with only 5 hours power a day, plus diesel generators. He won't leave the farm as he thinks the diesel is too valuable and will be stolen.

Zimbabwe is a basket case economy run by henchmen of a corrupt government. Difficult to imagine investing in THS because of this. It can be argued that a new mine is a flagship and too significant for the government to interfere with, but surely there are many lower risk/reward scenarios?

[sotolo] 24/12/2022 08:26

Happy Xmas Tiger and all. I of course have all the same macro questions. On THS Thanks again, I could of course have got it cheaper but I am all for a company that invests so much in growth and Karo should begin to greatly increase profits in a coupe of years, though it is a gamble on what will happen to PGM prices. On another note, from the share board where we met, Centamin has been looking up, recovering by a third in last 12 months. How has your investment year been?

[tigerbythetail] 23/12/2022 12:52

Hi Sotolo!
I do think the underlying reason for the drop in the share price is that for one or some shareholders the risk of Zimbabwe is simply too much, and it has triggered them to sell up. The current depressed share price would be almost inconceivable if Tharisa were giving the cash they are generating back to shareholders rather than investing it into Karo.
I do believe from the book it is one largeish holder reducing a substantial position, rather than many smaller ones. But you can never be really sure about things like that.
Any road, at some point the seller(s) will be done, and any new shareholders that come aboard will have already accepted the supposed extra risks that investing in Zimbabwe brings. Personally, I'm a long term investor in CMCL, which successfully operates a gold mine in Zimbabwe, so I am fairly relaxed about that.
As for 2023, who knows what it will bring? I only have questions without answers. The most important being: Will the Ukraine war end? Will it spread and morph into World War 3? How will the Chinese housing collapse and Chinese Covid play out? Will China invade Taiwan? How deep will the likely coming recessions be in Europe and in UK? How low will the pound go?
I don't have many good investment ideas right now, but at some point (IMO, not yet) the bear market in bonds will turn.
Anyway, Happy Christmas all.

[sotolo] 21/12/2022 09:00

Tiger, I think maybe you’re reading this wrong and it is not just a temporary dump by one shareholder but secular concern about heavy investment needed in Karo, at a time of soaring interest rates and reduce profits. I believe it will all come good in a couple of years, but that is a very long time in the market, in the meantime PGMs havebeen pressured, despite what the analysts say bye the increase in EV’s and chromium is rather China dependent and would be affected by a worldwide recession.

[basem1] 21/12/2022 08:46

Especially when SLP are up !!

[melody9999] 20/12/2022 20:09

In SA at present and load shedding is much worse this year. I would not invest in SA businesses that are heavy energy users at present unless they have cost effective back up supply.

[ntv] 20/12/2022 20:02

Why are they positive now?
Management haven't done a good job with the fund raise in bonds
Graph looks terrible
Cut in dividend
Only chance for shareholders is a takeover bid imho

[basem1] 20/12/2022 15:47

There wasn't any real volume dump though it just looked like Pi sells But we seem to have turned. Coinciding with the chart support at 96 ish from a few months ago Very positive now

[tigerbythetail] 20/12/2022 14:47

I think I didn't quite read this morning's dip right.
Now I'm thinking that was it - the final dump of our persistent seller. If I'm right, the downward pressure should ease off the share price, and it should rise back to a "not quite so crazily low" level.

[tigerbythetail] 20/12/2022 09:25

Speculation:
Seller is trying to close out position by end of financial year??
If so, things could get "interesting" here, in a not very ho-ho-ho way.
But the value proposition here is outstanding, so eventually the share price will rise back to a more "normal" level.

[sotolo] 20/12/2022 08:59

Money man,over the last few year low dividend/no dividend growth companies have risen, just look at Amazon, without much payouts. THS to my mind is a growth company that happens to pay out 17% which is a huge 6% return. I invest here just because the company, as Bezos, had a long term vision, ploughs profit into the future and look to double output unlike SLP. Which should double share price ina couple of years, PGM prices willing. However chrome is near half profit and rising