Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[121spa] 06/12/2023 08:50

Wasn't it effectively a profits warning they announced this morning?

[sotolo] 06/12/2023 08:09

THS flash sale this morning, 13% off price down near 50p, buy while you can

[greyingsurfer] 04/11/2023 08:09

There’s a pretty fundamental failure in that article:

“ The Department of Transport recently published a study on this question. It concluded that because EVs are cheaper to run than conventional cars the cost differential between a journey in an EV and one on our expensive public transport system will widen. ”

Which assumed road pricing/private transport taxation does’t change to reflect increasing EV use as fuel tax declines. Of course it will, it has to. Most likely we’ll see increased charging based on road use, use in congested vs uncongested places times etc. For now cheaper costs of EVs are beneficial in promoting uptake, but once they are the norm then change is inevitable.

[mfhmfh] 03/11/2023 22:01

hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/its-time-to-tell-the-truth-about-electric-cars/

[sotolo] 26/10/2023 07:58

….the grand old Duke of York…well that was a quick up and down, will it now settle back at 4000 or march on down…

[sailing john] 19/10/2023 18:56

Rhodium now 5500 up from a static 4100 just a week ago! Source - Matthey

[sailing john] 19/10/2023 18:30

Updated my Q4 model with actuals and I was pretty much spot on with my forecast above.

So I now have a model eps of 18p for 2H (1H was 14p) so FY 32p PE of 2!

More importantly 2024 based on cautious pricing of 250 for Chrome and 1350 for pgms gives a FY eps of 16p. I would expect that to get beaten as I've been cautious on prices and on costs.
Any other views?

Glad to see the slowing of Karo which will help cashflow and reduce borrowing requirements!
It might take a few years but I do see this back at 150 plus when pgm prices recover from the current unsustainable low point for some competitors.
GL SJ

[sailing john] 18/10/2023 09:03

Another tick up for Rhodium today. Is this the start of a decent move. I'll try to update my model later and post revised guesses!!! of financials for this year and next!

[mfhmfh] 18/10/2023 08:30

Chinese economy improving.

[nigelpm] 17/10/2023 18:28

Like others I don't see a buyout but it is ludicrously cheap

[tigerbythetail] 17/10/2023 18:17

Hi WhiteHunter!
No, nobody could block the family from trying a buyout. But they'd be putting a lot of eggs in one basket if they went for 100% ownership. And that's never wise.
And I don't think a really lowball bid would succeed. I think it would take 120p+ to convince the larger shareholders to sell up.

[whitehunter] 17/10/2023 11:30

Who would block the family? Is that not a possibility?

[whitehunter] 17/10/2023 09:37

This feels really ripe for a management buyout on the cheap. Would not be good for PIs.

[whitehunter] 17/10/2023 08:49

It has been marked down for months. Should be cheap by now.

[lennonsalive] 17/10/2023 08:01

Not marked down as much as I thought. A wise move to delay Karo

[tigerbythetail] 16/10/2023 15:19

The rhodium move is becoming significant - it's now $5,250 / oz (JMAT prices).
Given THS's prill split this will make quite a difference to their average PGM price.

[sailing john] 11/10/2023 17:56

A little tick up from Rhodium today after flat lining for a month or more. Not significant but at least in the right direction!
Chrome of course is still very high, just hope it stays that way into next year.

[nakedmolerat] 09/10/2023 15:10

does not scroll correctly for me either on the web

[sailing john] 09/10/2023 15:04

Thanks for the pricing info.
Very clear on my laptop but doesn't scroll on my phone. That will either be a rubbish phone or operator incompetence or both!!!
Looks like my guesses were pretty close but slightly cautious so hopefully a little upside on my 2H numbers.
SJ

[whitehunter] 09/10/2023 14:45

The weekly prices are under the Weekly PGM and Chrom Info option under the Investors tab on their website

[nakedmolerat] 09/10/2023 14:44

hxxps://www.tharisa.com/investment-overview.php

[sailing john] 09/10/2023 14:36

It's falling in line with other pgm producers following commodity price falls. However, Chrome appears to have stabilised at around 300 and is now delivering the majority of Rev at approx double pgms?
I was tracking prices on their Twitter feed but since they left I've not found on their website which is what they promised. Anyone got a link please?

Anyway with my cautious best guess at pgm basket at 1300 down from 2360, 2032, 1695 in Q1-3 and Chome at 290 as Q3 I have a 2H eps of 16.6p vs 14.2p in 1H.
FY eps 30.8 a PE of 2!
Karo shouldn't affect P&L or eps as presumably all capitalised but it will be a massive cash drain. It might be worth slowing or pausing construction imo.
All imo SJ

[nakedmolerat] 09/10/2023 14:28

metals price, karo, small cap massacre

take your pick