Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[nakedmolerat] 10/5/2023 10:36

Can see this drifting back to 80p

[sotolo] 09/5/2023 10:43

Yes Moneyman, good to see THS revert to the usual way of showing the chrome price and slightly up on the week though still ab it down on March which was a bit lower than Feb. So dollar prices a bit lower than earlier in the year and dollar down, but hopefully only about 15% less profit for chrome in real terms than earlier in the year, of course PGM’s more worrying. However we do have a lot of protection in our pe having been so absurdly low, expecting this especially on the PGM side, which has proved right as giving perhaps 30-40% profit than earlier in the year but still churning out loads of cash if maybe a third less…so far and of course a lot less than last year

[sharesoc] 08/5/2023 16:00

ShareSoc is hosting a webinar with Tharisa plc ($THS)on 8/6/23 which may be of interest to current shareholders or potential investors. Phoevos Pouroulis (CEO) presenting. You can register here: [...]

[moneyman50] 02/5/2023 07:55

Tharisa weekly tweet confirms increase in chrome price (in dollar terms) compared to last week -can’t see this as a drift downwards-exchange rate pound to dollar same as this time last year -but Rand weaker against dollar.Chrome circa $290 so cash must be rolling in,
Also PGM basket marginally up compared to last week

[mjneish] 01/5/2023 11:40

from the latest Q2 production report, could someone elaborate on this?

PGM prices came under pressure in the quarter as demand softened and destocking took some shine off the strong pricing seen in FY2022. Rhodium and palladium prices remain the most affected, with rhodium suffering from a small, tight, illiquid market influenced by a single seller.

[moneyman50] 30/4/2023 19:04

Quarter ended 31st March 2022 per Tharisa report average chrome price $177 -now circa $282 per you fugues -up over $100 since this time last year -transport/shipping costs have also fallen significantly .A $10 fall over a couple of months(hardly tumbling) compared to over $100 increase from this time last year! We shall see on Tuesday whether chrome prices went up last week (up according to metal com) and if rhodium continues to rise-Tharisa have accredited the fall in rhodium prices due to a single seller who can’t go on selling for ever.
As for the exchange rate-pound to dollar 1/5/22 -$1.2583 -now circa $1.25 so no difference compared to this time last year

[sotolo] 30/4/2023 09:15

Well pretty much everywhere
Tharisa’s own regular Monday price tweet for instance, a couple of months ago $293.8, latest $282.5 and add in fall in dollar so in sterling (which we buy shares in) down from £246 to £225 which translates to around 25% less profit on the chromium
Or Investing.com where it has been having roughly weekly falls for a couple of months now.
Or others
Combined with PGM falls explains share price as our extraordinarily high profits are hammered and look like the outlier they maybe were. Still a great company especially if Karo goes well and IF PGM prices, that matter so to Karo, eventually turn. However trends have a habit of going much further than investors imagine
Imho

[moneyman50] 27/4/2023 12:35

I follow the South African chrome prices on metal.com which gives the price for 40-42% chrome ore (SMM-the leading metals information provider in China) which closely mirrors the chrome price given by Tharisa in it’s weekly tweets.
Where do you see the price falling?

[sotolo] 27/4/2023 12:00

Where or how do you see chromium drifting up, all I read shows it drifting slowly down, however you are right rh is picking up, let’s hope it is not just another bounce in its two year fall, but no reason why?

[moneyman50] 26/4/2023 13:17

The chrome price seems to be drifting upwards and even rhodium is up slightly according to metals daily-as long as no significant production cuts due to loadsheding should be a good quarter-shareprice appears deeply discounted and ignoring the consistent high chrome price.Karo also appears to be on target and staying within budget.

[sotolo] 21/4/2023 11:28

I think the problem here is partly that the chromium price is drifting down too now

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 14:19

THS Summary from Tamesis analysis not following todays update.

- From an EBITDA perspective this mark to market pricing for chrome more than offsets the production downgrade leaving us forecasting $233m vs previous $225m.
With our updated model we expect chrome to contribute $416m (or 60%) of total revenue

[tigerbythetail] 13/4/2023 09:42

Hi Stemis!
I agree with that. Not a great update in itself, and the market won't like guidance being cut by 10% in the shortish term, but overall Tharisa is still an excellent prospect.
The section in the RNS on metals prices is interesting. The rhodium decline is blamed on ONE seller - under the circumstances, this can only mean the Russians (Norilsk Nickel / Russia itself) selling off their reserve stockpile of Pd and Rh. It's a "one and done" event, so (logically!) prices should recover later in the year.

[stemis] 13/4/2023 09:04

Disappointing to see the fall in Q2 PGM production which, coupled with the expected fall in basket price will have substantially cut PGM profits. However will be more than made up for by the increased chrome contribution.

In FY I have underlying PBT of ~$167m (stripping out something for minorities) which would put THS on a historic EV of ~2.3 x earnings.

Prorating turnover by the changes in ouput and prices in H1 (and assuming all other things being the same) I'd have PBT up by roughly 15%.

Still ridiculously cheap

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 08:31

Berenberg raises Tharisa price target to 290 (270) pence - BUY

[lennonsalive] 13/4/2023 08:31

Wide spread this morning too

[scubadiverr] 13/4/2023 08:19

A nice opportunity for a top this morning

[scepticalinvestor] 13/4/2023 08:09

Bargepole, good luck simps!

[bubloo] 13/4/2023 08:04

I can see a bid coming in from some bigger players. very undervalued based on RBPlat takeover price.

[bubloo] 13/4/2023 08:02

good dividend yield at this price. I will likely add at end of day

[lennonsalive] 13/4/2023 08:01

Only marked down a bit, more of buying opportunity for those who have a long term interest with Karo

[sotolo] 13/4/2023 06:47

Sadly numbers are out and PGM ounces down 20% on last quarter and forward guidance on total ounces down 10% which of course increase costs per ounce. Mining is a fickle business and Thevos can’t control the violent weather. Still cash has risen slightly

[sailing john] 11/4/2023 18:30

SteMis - I agree re sales over the past few months. Perhaps an opportunity to clear the rest has arisen as I described above.

Anyway it could be the overhang cleared - some good numbers for Q2/1H might see a reversal of the recent downward trend. I would perhaps be a buyer except that I already have toooo many! My 1H estimate is 20.2p eps - see details in a previous post from last week
nai SJ

[stemis] 11/4/2023 18:07

I'm not that upto date with the history but aren't these the original minority shareholders in Tharisa Minerals that were bought out for shares in Feb 2022? Looks to me like they've been selling ever since. Suggestion on twitter that it's to settle their tax liabilities. Would explain some of the weakness in the share price...

Edit: See above

[sailing john] 11/4/2023 17:56

"TigerByTheTail11 Apr '23 - 17:37 - 1679 of 1679
RNS out - substantial sales of shares by insiders - c. 1 million shares in all.
Hard to put a positive spin on that!"

Well here's my attempt!!!


"dealings in securities attributable to an associate of directors of a major subsidiary to settle the tax liability arising from the BEE transaction announced on 16 February 2022 is disclosed:"
Looks like multiple and large transactions in excess of 1.3m shares at around 22 Zar roughly 97p

The most interesting thing is who has bought them?
My guess/hope is that it is that Northam taking an opportunity to build a stake in THS after they pulled out of the competition (vs Implats) to buy RBPlat recently, They hold a large position in their target RBPlat that they might end up selling to Impala which would give them a bundle of surplus cash to invest. I've not really researched cash position of the 3 players so just speculation and wishful thinking perhaps!
All fingers xxd
SJ

Edit - The Northam decision to pull out or RBPlat bid was just 5 days back on the 5th April. Coincidence that we then have this transfer of shares!? Hmmmm