Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 12/5/2023 18:32:25

More on the previous subject - including on possible / probable US sanctions actions...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/12/southafrica-a81125
For sheer wrongness and boneheaded stupidity this story takes some beating. It's self-harm.
It won't affect Tharisa much directly - they sell mostly to China. But I can see South Africa getting a country rating downgrade on the back of this.

[tigerbythetail] 11/5/2023 21:50:36

This will act as a deadweight on the rand and all South African stocks:
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/us-accuses-south-africa-of-providing-arms-to-russia-reports
It's frustrating that the S.A. government could be so stupid and wrong-headed. I imagine economic sanctions of some kind or another will follow in due course.
It's not like South Africa didn't have enough problems already, without adding to them, is it?

[moneyman50] 11/5/2023 18:16:46

Soloto Per half year production report average Pgm price per ounce is down $376 from 6 months ended 31/03/2022 (the Ukraine uplift in PGM prices really only impacted the second half of last year when chrome prices were a lot lower than they are now) but average chrome per ton is up $72 per ton compared to the six months ended 31/03/2022 ,more favourable exchange rate,shipping costs down $20 per ton for chrome and no BEE to deduct this time-took approx $11 million dollars of profit last year and four times as much net cash compared to last year despite some funds being pumped into Karo-agree let’s see who is right -perhaps you could set out your profit calculation to see who is closest-trust you appreciate the impact of the Karo carrying value adjustment last year which had no impact on dividend.

[sotolo] 11/5/2023 08:27:46

Interim 2021 4c,2022 3c 2023 2c-2.5c?
Profits steadily falling, so dividend too
Let’s see and hope you are right and I am wrong
Share price doesn’t say so

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 19:02:14

Sotolo-suggest you read the company’s RNS dated the 20th May 2022-this explains the difference between the EPS that includes accounting for the “fair value” gain on the Karo acquisition and the EPS excluding this transaction (ie the profits generated by the company’s commercial operation-Pgm and chrome production.)This is the figure the dividend payment is based (ie circa 15% of normal operating profit after tax).
This EPS figure is circa 16 cents for the six months ended 31 March 2022 and forms the basis of the dividend calculation (3 cents ie circa 18% of profits after tax) and I expect this figure to be slightly higher for the period ended 31 March 2023 hence I don’t see a dividend cut.
The fair value adjustment on the Karo acquisition was a non cash transaction,hence it would have no effect on the level of the dividend payout otherwise the dividend last June would have been between 5 cents and 6 cents not 3 cents.

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 16:33:15

Last year eps (excluding Karo uplift) 16 c on which dividend payout is based.
This year if profit for first 6 months could be circa §60 million (basic calculation) I have done which equates to approx 20c per share (in the same region as Mike on the other side) Last year dividend 3 c per share.I am anticipating a turnover circa $320 million (based on half yearly PGM and chrome prices) Gross profit circa $115 million -admin circa $25 million tax circa $25 million giving profit after tax of $65 million rounded down to $60 million .
What is your estimated profit .My gross profit percentage is circa 35% (as per last year) but this could be higher based on higher chrome prices and lower shipment costs

So for dividend to be reduced profit after tax for six months would have to probably be below $55 million.(remember shareholders profit no longer diluted by BEM interest)
I agree the market is discounting Karo but this has no effect on the current profitability of the South African operation and has no impact on profitability until production commences in approx a year time when pgm prices could be higher

[sotolo] 10/5/2023 14:50:56

White hunter, ye if dividend was maintained but it won’t be, Tharisa are quite clear that they will give us about 17% of profits which will be reduced. The chrome increase outweighed by pgm fall. Also Moneyman cash will be way down as now going into Karo. Finally to both of you the market is spooked by Karo that doesn’t have the chrome and is getting close to break even and soon loss at current pgm prices, so good wrong up all our lovely if reduced profits into a potentially loss making hole. Hopefully platinum and palladium might save us

[sotolo] 10/5/2023 14:47:13

Moneyman eps for first half was more than double what you say at around 33c. Mike over in LSE is actually saying will be down around 40% so dividend will tumbLe with it. I agree

[whitehunter] 10/5/2023 11:45:17

Added more today. Long term hold for me. Good value too in short term if dividend maintained.

[moneyman50] 10/5/2023 11:32:37

Unfortunately everyone seems to be concentrating on the rhodium element of the PGM basket and all the plus side of the company’s operation has been ignored.(rhodium price is still above the long term price prior to the Ukrainian war spike),At 31/03/2022 the net cash position was $25.9 million-at 31/03/2023 it is $106.8 million -a four fold increase -assuming there is no major change in credit terms for both trade debtors and creditors I can not see how profits (ignoring the carrying value of the Karo investment adjustment included in the accounts to 31/03/2022) have fallen compared to the six months ended 31/03/2022.Yes the Pgm price has fallen but the chrome price has risen significantly with a material fall in shipping costs to factor in.According SMM the chrome price for 42% chrome concentrate has been increasing over the last couple of days which bodes well for the second half.Unfortunately LSE won’t let me sign into my account hence posting here.
Mike 1959 on LSe is predicting a H1 PAT of $57 million which would give an EPS of approx 19 cents a share compared to circa 15 cents a share last year but is predicting a dividend cut? 15% of 19 cents equates to approx 3 cents a share which is the same as last year-The karo fair value adjustment was not factored into last years dividend calculation.

[nakedmolerat] 10/5/2023 10:36:00

Can see this drifting back to 80p

[sotolo] 09/5/2023 10:43:11

Yes Moneyman, good to see THS revert to the usual way of showing the chrome price and slightly up on the week though still ab it down on March which was a bit lower than Feb. So dollar prices a bit lower than earlier in the year and dollar down, but hopefully only about 15% less profit for chrome in real terms than earlier in the year, of course PGM’s more worrying. However we do have a lot of protection in our pe having been so absurdly low, expecting this especially on the PGM side, which has proved right as giving perhaps 30-40% profit than earlier in the year but still churning out loads of cash if maybe a third less…so far and of course a lot less than last year

[sharesoc] 08/5/2023 16:00:23

ShareSoc is hosting a webinar with Tharisa plc ($THS)on 8/6/23 which may be of interest to current shareholders or potential investors. Phoevos Pouroulis (CEO) presenting. You can register here: [...]

[moneyman50] 02/5/2023 07:55:43

Tharisa weekly tweet confirms increase in chrome price (in dollar terms) compared to last week -can’t see this as a drift downwards-exchange rate pound to dollar same as this time last year -but Rand weaker against dollar.Chrome circa $290 so cash must be rolling in,
Also PGM basket marginally up compared to last week

[mjneish] 01/5/2023 11:40:27

from the latest Q2 production report, could someone elaborate on this?

PGM prices came under pressure in the quarter as demand softened and destocking took some shine off the strong pricing seen in FY2022. Rhodium and palladium prices remain the most affected, with rhodium suffering from a small, tight, illiquid market influenced by a single seller.

[moneyman50] 30/4/2023 19:04:08

Quarter ended 31st March 2022 per Tharisa report average chrome price $177 -now circa $282 per you fugues -up over $100 since this time last year -transport/shipping costs have also fallen significantly .A $10 fall over a couple of months(hardly tumbling) compared to over $100 increase from this time last year! We shall see on Tuesday whether chrome prices went up last week (up according to metal com) and if rhodium continues to rise-Tharisa have accredited the fall in rhodium prices due to a single seller who can’t go on selling for ever.
As for the exchange rate-pound to dollar 1/5/22 -$1.2583 -now circa $1.25 so no difference compared to this time last year

[sotolo] 30/4/2023 09:15:23

Well pretty much everywhere
Tharisa’s own regular Monday price tweet for instance, a couple of months ago $293.8, latest $282.5 and add in fall in dollar so in sterling (which we buy shares in) down from £246 to £225 which translates to around 25% less profit on the chromium
Or Investing.com where it has been having roughly weekly falls for a couple of months now.
Or others
Combined with PGM falls explains share price as our extraordinarily high profits are hammered and look like the outlier they maybe were. Still a great company especially if Karo goes well and IF PGM prices, that matter so to Karo, eventually turn. However trends have a habit of going much further than investors imagine
Imho

[moneyman50] 27/4/2023 12:35:00

I follow the South African chrome prices on metal.com which gives the price for 40-42% chrome ore (SMM-the leading metals information provider in China) which closely mirrors the chrome price given by Tharisa in it’s weekly tweets.
Where do you see the price falling?

[sotolo] 27/4/2023 12:00:44

Where or how do you see chromium drifting up, all I read shows it drifting slowly down, however you are right rh is picking up, let’s hope it is not just another bounce in its two year fall, but no reason why?

[moneyman50] 26/4/2023 13:17:30

The chrome price seems to be drifting upwards and even rhodium is up slightly according to metals daily-as long as no significant production cuts due to loadsheding should be a good quarter-shareprice appears deeply discounted and ignoring the consistent high chrome price.Karo also appears to be on target and staying within budget.

[sotolo] 21/4/2023 11:28:57

I think the problem here is partly that the chromium price is drifting down too now

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 14:19:51

THS Summary from Tamesis analysis not following todays update.

- From an EBITDA perspective this mark to market pricing for chrome more than offsets the production downgrade leaving us forecasting $233m vs previous $225m.
With our updated model we expect chrome to contribute $416m (or 60%) of total revenue

[tigerbythetail] 13/4/2023 09:42:30

Hi Stemis!
I agree with that. Not a great update in itself, and the market won't like guidance being cut by 10% in the shortish term, but overall Tharisa is still an excellent prospect.
The section in the RNS on metals prices is interesting. The rhodium decline is blamed on ONE seller - under the circumstances, this can only mean the Russians (Norilsk Nickel / Russia itself) selling off their reserve stockpile of Pd and Rh. It's a "one and done" event, so (logically!) prices should recover later in the year.

[stemis] 13/4/2023 09:04:17

Disappointing to see the fall in Q2 PGM production which, coupled with the expected fall in basket price will have substantially cut PGM profits. However will be more than made up for by the increased chrome contribution.

In FY I have underlying PBT of ~$167m (stripping out something for minorities) which would put THS on a historic EV of ~2.3 x earnings.

Prorating turnover by the changes in ouput and prices in H1 (and assuming all other things being the same) I'd have PBT up by roughly 15%.

Still ridiculously cheap

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 08:31:55

Berenberg raises Tharisa price target to 290 (270) pence - BUY