Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 14:19

THS Summary from Tamesis analysis not following todays update.

- From an EBITDA perspective this mark to market pricing for chrome more than offsets the production downgrade leaving us forecasting $233m vs previous $225m.
With our updated model we expect chrome to contribute $416m (or 60%) of total revenue

[tigerbythetail] 13/4/2023 09:42

Hi Stemis!
I agree with that. Not a great update in itself, and the market won't like guidance being cut by 10% in the shortish term, but overall Tharisa is still an excellent prospect.
The section in the RNS on metals prices is interesting. The rhodium decline is blamed on ONE seller - under the circumstances, this can only mean the Russians (Norilsk Nickel / Russia itself) selling off their reserve stockpile of Pd and Rh. It's a "one and done" event, so (logically!) prices should recover later in the year.

[stemis] 13/4/2023 09:04

Disappointing to see the fall in Q2 PGM production which, coupled with the expected fall in basket price will have substantially cut PGM profits. However will be more than made up for by the increased chrome contribution.

In FY I have underlying PBT of ~$167m (stripping out something for minorities) which would put THS on a historic EV of ~2.3 x earnings.

Prorating turnover by the changes in ouput and prices in H1 (and assuming all other things being the same) I'd have PBT up by roughly 15%.

Still ridiculously cheap

[ianb5004] 13/4/2023 08:31

Berenberg raises Tharisa price target to 290 (270) pence - BUY

[lennonsalive] 13/4/2023 08:31

Wide spread this morning too

[scubadiverr] 13/4/2023 08:19

A nice opportunity for a top this morning

[scepticalinvestor] 13/4/2023 08:09

Bargepole, good luck simps!

[bubloo] 13/4/2023 08:04

I can see a bid coming in from some bigger players. very undervalued based on RBPlat takeover price.

[bubloo] 13/4/2023 08:02

good dividend yield at this price. I will likely add at end of day

[lennonsalive] 13/4/2023 08:01

Only marked down a bit, more of buying opportunity for those who have a long term interest with Karo

[sotolo] 13/4/2023 06:47

Sadly numbers are out and PGM ounces down 20% on last quarter and forward guidance on total ounces down 10% which of course increase costs per ounce. Mining is a fickle business and Thevos can’t control the violent weather. Still cash has risen slightly

[sailing john] 11/4/2023 18:30

SteMis - I agree re sales over the past few months. Perhaps an opportunity to clear the rest has arisen as I described above.

Anyway it could be the overhang cleared - some good numbers for Q2/1H might see a reversal of the recent downward trend. I would perhaps be a buyer except that I already have toooo many! My 1H estimate is 20.2p eps - see details in a previous post from last week
nai SJ

[stemis] 11/4/2023 18:07

I'm not that upto date with the history but aren't these the original minority shareholders in Tharisa Minerals that were bought out for shares in Feb 2022? Looks to me like they've been selling ever since. Suggestion on twitter that it's to settle their tax liabilities. Would explain some of the weakness in the share price...

Edit: See above

[sailing john] 11/4/2023 17:56

"TigerByTheTail11 Apr '23 - 17:37 - 1679 of 1679
RNS out - substantial sales of shares by insiders - c. 1 million shares in all.
Hard to put a positive spin on that!"

Well here's my attempt!!!


"dealings in securities attributable to an associate of directors of a major subsidiary to settle the tax liability arising from the BEE transaction announced on 16 February 2022 is disclosed:"
Looks like multiple and large transactions in excess of 1.3m shares at around 22 Zar roughly 97p

The most interesting thing is who has bought them?
My guess/hope is that it is that Northam taking an opportunity to build a stake in THS after they pulled out of the competition (vs Implats) to buy RBPlat recently, They hold a large position in their target RBPlat that they might end up selling to Impala which would give them a bundle of surplus cash to invest. I've not really researched cash position of the 3 players so just speculation and wishful thinking perhaps!
All fingers xxd
SJ

Edit - The Northam decision to pull out or RBPlat bid was just 5 days back on the 5th April. Coincidence that we then have this transfer of shares!? Hmmmm

[tigerbythetail] 11/4/2023 17:37

RNS out - substantial sales of shares by insiders - c. 1 million shares in all.
Hard to put a positive spin on that!

[basem1] 06/4/2023 14:50

Looking a bit more lively at last Sellers cleared Mr Market maybe starting to think 6 months ahead ?

[moneyman50] 05/4/2023 11:29

Karo is still 15 months for production and the rhodium price could be a lot higher.-most professional views expressed in articles published on metals daily seem to support this view.
Also do not discount all the professional opinions which point to upcoming large yearly deficits in platinium -which much logically lead to higher platinium prices.
The so called large borrowings for Karo represent less than one years free cash flow at current Pgm and chrome prices -it is a long term project
Don’t ignore the current power problems that are affecting Production in some PGM mines in South Africa and the Russia situation-both could boast PGM prices as China recovers
Finally the high chrome price currently cancels out the lower rhodium price.
Chrome price has virtually doubled from its low and freight costs have fallen -that’s an awful lot of extra profit.

[sotolo] 05/4/2023 07:33

Yes rh makes up just 4% of the basket but even at these heavily reduced rh price, it is still nearly 25% of the profit and was over 50% before it’s tumble, hence why it matters,?the stressing and a share price that looks way undervalued in the rear view mirror but may not be with Karo basket already dropped to around $1500 and falling fast

[moneyman50] 31/3/2023 22:01

Have reviewed the Karo presentation and rhodium only represents 4.1% of the basket.
So not over material in the context of Karo.
So don’t really get this over stressing about the Karo basket which is not on line for another 15 months-platinum and palladium deficits predicted so prices maybe significantly higher in 18 months time -also price increased predicted by most experts.

[sailing john] 31/3/2023 15:20

Half year end and we appear stuck around 100p ish as Mr M nervous about commodity prices. However, I think Tharisa will have another good year even with some cautious forecasts for 2H in my model.

Beyond 2023 who knows and I'm cautious about Kiro but encouraged by the fact that the Directors own over 40% of THS and so far haven't put a foot wrong afaik. I'm assuming when they have built the business to include Kiro they will be open to offers that reflect the NPV of the two mines which is likely to be a lot more than 200p! Haven't they previously developed and sold?

Here are my forecasts (Q1 is actual)
PGM koz... 43.. 45.. 45.. 45
PGM price 2360 2100 1800 1800

Chrome kT 383..450..450..450
Av. Price 223..280..250..250

My model output at $1.24 xr

1H eps 20.2p
2H eps 17.3p
FY eps 37.5p
PE circa 2.7
Divi circa 6p - yield 6% at 100p

Interested in any other views
SJ

[sotolo] 30/3/2023 16:47

Sorry shoul read down escalator

[sotolo] 30/3/2023 15:34

Rh on the Dow escalator again, and basket nearing $1800. There can’t be a takeover as long as the family keen on holding. The dividend is likely to be reduce as unlikely to increase the approx 17% share of profits and profits will be down despite chromium as that too is toppy.

[moneyman50] 28/3/2023 16:43

Sorry should read $12 million re cost of dividend

[moneyman50] 28/3/2023 16:41

Sotolo -lets see what the production figures tell us in a couple of weeks time.
Although PGM prices are down the chrome price has been hovering around $300 per ton for weeks -(much much higher than this time last year) production costs are down from last year in dollar terms and freight costs are also down considerably-finally if targets are hit chrome production numbers will be up.As for PGM general consensus is for an increase in platinium prices which make up the balk of our SA basket.My basic calculation is the current PE ratio is about two.I am supposed a takeover approach has not been made barring in mind the ridiculously low shareprice ,Anyone offering £2 per share would have an absolute bargain
There is no justification to cut the dividend which is a very small percentage of profits after tax (circa 15%).A 4 cents dividend costs the company £12 million-currently covered by less than 3 weeks of chrome sales and hardly material in the overall costs of Karo
Finally all brokers have target share prices at least 2 times the current share proce

[sotolo] 28/3/2023 13:07

I too bought more as you know at 94p, but only £7k, with the divi. I am not sure Inagree tha this is such good news, borrowing money at what must be a high rate though I didn’t read what it was, did you, in order to safeguard paying the divi in future rather than spending that on Karo. I agree it increases flexibility, I never understood a rights issue was on the cards, but is still just expensive secured borrowing
That THS could always do if pays through the nose, so I expect the share price to continue to hover sub £1, just as it has been, and to continue south as/if PGM’s fall further unless made up for by rising chromium, though the up escalator for this seems to have ended