Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 11/4/2023 17:37

RNS out - substantial sales of shares by insiders - c. 1 million shares in all.
Hard to put a positive spin on that!

[basem1] 06/4/2023 14:50

Looking a bit more lively at last Sellers cleared Mr Market maybe starting to think 6 months ahead ?

[moneyman50] 05/4/2023 11:29

Karo is still 15 months for production and the rhodium price could be a lot higher.-most professional views expressed in articles published on metals daily seem to support this view.
Also do not discount all the professional opinions which point to upcoming large yearly deficits in platinium -which much logically lead to higher platinium prices.
The so called large borrowings for Karo represent less than one years free cash flow at current Pgm and chrome prices -it is a long term project
Don’t ignore the current power problems that are affecting Production in some PGM mines in South Africa and the Russia situation-both could boast PGM prices as China recovers
Finally the high chrome price currently cancels out the lower rhodium price.
Chrome price has virtually doubled from its low and freight costs have fallen -that’s an awful lot of extra profit.

[sotolo] 05/4/2023 07:33

Yes rh makes up just 4% of the basket but even at these heavily reduced rh price, it is still nearly 25% of the profit and was over 50% before it’s tumble, hence why it matters,?the stressing and a share price that looks way undervalued in the rear view mirror but may not be with Karo basket already dropped to around $1500 and falling fast

[moneyman50] 31/3/2023 22:01

Have reviewed the Karo presentation and rhodium only represents 4.1% of the basket.
So not over material in the context of Karo.
So don’t really get this over stressing about the Karo basket which is not on line for another 15 months-platinum and palladium deficits predicted so prices maybe significantly higher in 18 months time -also price increased predicted by most experts.

[sailing john] 31/3/2023 15:20

Half year end and we appear stuck around 100p ish as Mr M nervous about commodity prices. However, I think Tharisa will have another good year even with some cautious forecasts for 2H in my model.

Beyond 2023 who knows and I'm cautious about Kiro but encouraged by the fact that the Directors own over 40% of THS and so far haven't put a foot wrong afaik. I'm assuming when they have built the business to include Kiro they will be open to offers that reflect the NPV of the two mines which is likely to be a lot more than 200p! Haven't they previously developed and sold?

Here are my forecasts (Q1 is actual)
PGM koz... 43.. 45.. 45.. 45
PGM price 2360 2100 1800 1800

Chrome kT 383..450..450..450
Av. Price 223..280..250..250

My model output at $1.24 xr

1H eps 20.2p
2H eps 17.3p
FY eps 37.5p
PE circa 2.7
Divi circa 6p - yield 6% at 100p

Interested in any other views
SJ

[sotolo] 30/3/2023 16:47

Sorry shoul read down escalator

[sotolo] 30/3/2023 15:34

Rh on the Dow escalator again, and basket nearing $1800. There can’t be a takeover as long as the family keen on holding. The dividend is likely to be reduce as unlikely to increase the approx 17% share of profits and profits will be down despite chromium as that too is toppy.

[moneyman50] 28/3/2023 16:43

Sorry should read $12 million re cost of dividend

[moneyman50] 28/3/2023 16:41

Sotolo -lets see what the production figures tell us in a couple of weeks time.
Although PGM prices are down the chrome price has been hovering around $300 per ton for weeks -(much much higher than this time last year) production costs are down from last year in dollar terms and freight costs are also down considerably-finally if targets are hit chrome production numbers will be up.As for PGM general consensus is for an increase in platinium prices which make up the balk of our SA basket.My basic calculation is the current PE ratio is about two.I am supposed a takeover approach has not been made barring in mind the ridiculously low shareprice ,Anyone offering £2 per share would have an absolute bargain
There is no justification to cut the dividend which is a very small percentage of profits after tax (circa 15%).A 4 cents dividend costs the company £12 million-currently covered by less than 3 weeks of chrome sales and hardly material in the overall costs of Karo
Finally all brokers have target share prices at least 2 times the current share proce

[sotolo] 28/3/2023 13:07

I too bought more as you know at 94p, but only £7k, with the divi. I am not sure Inagree tha this is such good news, borrowing money at what must be a high rate though I didn’t read what it was, did you, in order to safeguard paying the divi in future rather than spending that on Karo. I agree it increases flexibility, I never understood a rights issue was on the cards, but is still just expensive secured borrowing
That THS could always do if pays through the nose, so I expect the share price to continue to hover sub £1, just as it has been, and to continue south as/if PGM’s fall further unless made up for by rising chromium, though the up escalator for this seems to have ended

[indalo] 27/3/2023 13:52

Agreed. Very positive and removes a lot of refinancing risk. At 200p this still looks cheap, but more visibility on enhanced distributable earnings will solve that.

[tigerbythetail] 27/3/2023 09:25

I'm taking the finance as good news - THS could just about have funded Karo from internal cashflows, as long as there wasn't a major world recession (= commodity price crash). This both insures against that and increases flexibility.
I'm assuming the price dumped to 92p because there were concerns about an equity raise. So this should bounce back now.
Glad I bought more at around the bottom. Still holding for 200p medium term - the undervaluation here is crazy, even allowing for SA and Zim risk.

[ianb5004] 27/3/2023 09:11

£130mil finance secured. Ths could be on the up.

[wingrove4] 24/3/2023 08:02

Tipped by Moneyweek today

[tigerbythetail] 22/3/2023 17:47

FWIW, I bought a few today, and I'm thinking to buy more. Though slowly, perhaps, as I'm not sure:
a) where rhodium will settle, and
b) how bad the (likely) coming recession will be, because that will inevitably hit all commodity prices hard.
I believe (but with fairly low confidence) that the Russians have been dumping rhodium and palladium from their reserve stocks onto the market because they are in such dire economic straits, and that the current glut of product is temporary. It's also worth noting that SA deep mine production will come down gradually. I'm not sure we've found a bottom yet for the two metals, but it's there somewhere. Barring a humdinger of a world recession, demand should be strong enough.

[sotolo] 22/3/2023 06:16

Never mind? Rhodium now I free fall with decline accelerating and nothing to stop it, down 70% now in a couple of years and PGM prices hurtling towards beak even and loss, makes Karo investment a big question unless this turns as currently building a loss making mine. Big question is will chromium stay up and make up for PGM losses as those fall, and will THS have to borrow more to build it? Explains the rear view pe of 2 as going forward we could be 10 20 or more. Mi es are of course cyclical as is chromium but the PGM decline may be secular

[frizzers] 20/3/2023 12:49

never mind

[dunns_river_falls] 02/3/2023 16:43

Really good day today when considering it went ex div. Good volume too. Assuming that some people sold in the days before the div and bought back today.

[mfhmfh] 02/3/2023 08:58

From VTU today:

'Signs of new car supply improving after extended period of disruption...'

[nakedmolerat] 02/3/2023 08:47

exdividend today dont forget

[sotolo] 01/3/2023 22:16

strange, on my favourite site chromium is a little off, hopefully just a breather from a great rise which has been just about making up for PGM fall….so far

[pecuniarum copia] 01/3/2023 10:39

Chinese business activity blows past pre-COVID levels in Feb - PMI

[mfhmfh] 01/3/2023 07:24

China’s factory activity reading rose to 52.6 in February, its highest level since April 2012.