Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 20/7/2023 14:48:02

Tharisa plc @tharisa_sa ·6h

Karo is turning out to be a world class development project in line with our forecasts, which showcase the commodities we produce as significant in the decarbonisation of the global economy. #Karo #Worldcass #Decarbonisation

[someuwin] 20/7/2023 14:27:13

Tharisa plc @tharisa_sa ·28m

Note from Liberum of last week

[soilderboy] 17/7/2023 08:35:50

Hi all.I'm just looking with a view to buying in here, having done plenty of research.Does anyone know how long the spread has been this wide for? I'm just curious!

[deadly] 13/7/2023 23:04:54

The same arguments apply to SLP I think; would be interesting to compare.

[whitehunter] 13/7/2023 09:46:09

Nice lift again today. Buying at 80p today. Were available under 70p two days ago. Funny old game this.

[stemis] 12/7/2023 10:31:57

Thamesis research note - hxxps://www.research-tree.com/research/tamesis-partners/q3-fy2023-production-results/37_2023071201503485476/ff502d6a-580c-4fb7-85a0-08269331f0cc [free to access but may need registration]

Our forecast EV/EBITDA and PER multiples multiple for FY2023 are 0.6x and 1.7x respectively, P/NAV is only 0.19x. We find these multiples extraordinary given the growth trajectory of Tharisa and the continued cash generation from its key asset. We maintain a PT of 300p whilst wondering openly whether the Pouroulis family will start to look at a management buyout if the share price stays at these levels. It certainly feels “doable”.

[stemis] 12/7/2023 10:06:51

At 74p, with net cash of $141m, the EV is just $145m...for a company that generated $40m of net cash in just 3 months. And that's valuing Karo at zero. And the company pays a yield of 7.3%. And that's with PGM prices at their current depressed levels. Madness I tell you...

[sotolo] 12/7/2023 09:06:58

We’ll that best my 70.25 purchase last Thursday, let’s hope we have found a bottom and not a dead cat bounce today

[tigerbythetail] 12/7/2023 08:29:26

Yes, I did. Only a few so far. Got 69p!
I'll buy more once the share price settles down a bit and the spread narrows later on.

[sotolo] 12/7/2023 08:25:26

Did you buy more Tiger?

[lennonsalive] 12/7/2023 08:19:14

Bought some this morning as this is due a rerating

[tigerbythetail] 12/7/2023 08:14:24

Fairly happy with the update, all in all.
UK George - I agree. IMO, share price is simply too low.

[ukgeorge] 12/7/2023 07:38:21

Likely a great time to be buying 70p is a bargain.

[strollingmolby] 12/7/2023 06:51:27

Q3 Production Report
Cash on hand increased by US$36.8 m to US$242.6 m (31 March 2023: US$205.8 m), resulting in a net cash position of US$141.5 m (31 March 2023: US$101.1 m)

[sotolo] 10/7/2023 18:31:46

Tiger
I often tell people about my wonderful eco car:
It has a range of 550miles
It reacharges from zero to full range in 3 or 4 minutes
All it’s materials have long since been amortised
And it doesn’t spew out many ppm2.5’s, the coming pollution disaster from car tyres in bev’s.
And despite being 20 years old is happily a ULEZ compliant petrol (Jeremy Clarkson told me I couldn’t buy a diesel convertible after ordering one and made me change it, luckily)
The downside is it cost a million pounds in today’s money 20 years ago
When I was single and gave up a spouse’s pension rights for the £35k to buy it, now happily married my spouse would get £60k a year if I hadn’t but will now get diddly squat.
So rather dependent on THS picking up
Hope you are right
However I and most I know are thinking of Bevs for their next vehicles
Plus ICE cars won’t be allowed

[tigerbythetail] 10/7/2023 09:58:09

Hi Sotolo!
I decided to leave it till Thursday and to see how production is going before buying more. There is just a chance that the share price is reacting to problems (unknown to me) at the mine, rather than to what I believe (PGM prices / general SA woes). This still feels to me like a panic bottom and a buying opportunity, but I don't think waiting three days will make a big difference to my buy-in price, and safety first.
I do take the point about how it takes time for low prices to drive out unprofitable production. However, I still wonder if the current market malaise isn't caused by over-production, as such, but by the release into the market of Russia / NorNickel's strategic reserves of PGMs. Certainly, Russia is selling gold. I know it still looks calm on the surface, but underneath Russia's economy is in turmoil. Most Russians I know, (which includes some "players"), believe defeat in Ukraine is all but inevitable and civil war is more likely than not now.
FWIW, I don't agree with the article you posted on LSE about "the death of ICEs". I thought the underlying statistical assumption on which the forward projection was based was absurd (50% growth p.a.!). You might also look at how 2nd hand prices for EVs are crashing in the West (contrasted to ICE vehicles). Most owners come to regret buying EVs, and the "green" argument for them is flimsy when analysed closely. The greenest thing we can all do is use our old cars as little as possible, and keep them on the road for as long as possible.
Anyhow, it will be interesting to read Tharisa's own market commentary on PGMs on Thursday as well!

[sotolo] 10/7/2023 07:49:35

Yes Tiger but it is surprising how long miners keep loss making lots going in hope prices will turn, Hochschild Pallancata aisc is now over $30 an ounce for silver while it has been selling around $23 and that has lasted a while so I expect a couple of years of these or lower OGM prices for supply to diminish which would be great apart from demand is still falling too. However IF chromium stays up we are quids in. Tell us what you buy this morning and best of British

[nigelpm] 09/7/2023 10:58:17

South Africa is in a far worse position than 5 years ago.

[tigerbythetail] 09/7/2023 10:52:17

I also think this panic drop has gone way too far, so I bought a few on Friday @70.2p and I'm thinking to add more on Monday.
Is Tharisa really in a weaker position than it was five years ago - because that's what the current share price is saying?
I still have reservations about South Africa (as a jurisdiction), but at this price I'm prepared to take the risk. As for PGMs, the market will balance one way or another. At current prices South Africa's PGM deep mining operations must be losing money hand over fist, so a few months of these prices and shafts will start to close.

[sotolo] 06/7/2023 17:20:07

Well been naughty and reinvested £10k of the divi today as it touched 70p, got 70.25 twice.

[sotolo] 05/7/2023 16:23:25

No consolation, boohoo, question does rh bottom at 4000 as 2019 or under 1000 as 2015/16, I assume the latter. Also even if Bev vehicle sales slow they are still eating into ice sales

[husbod] 05/7/2023 15:27:24

If it's any consolation SLP is falling fast too. The situation in South Africa doesn't help either.Did spot that one of the major German car makers has halted production of its EV range as demand has fallen short of expectations. Lot of pressure in Germany to extend the time period for the cessation of ICE vehicle production and could well be the same here.Not that my lithium miners are doing much better atm.

[sotolo] 05/7/2023 15:08:44

Tiger, demand for these metals is falling and remember a small fall, ie from a worldwide production deficit to surplus, can have a very big effect on price. Ice worldwide sales are accelerating their tumble, which has been much heralded and is now here. And when metals like rh are hit by this they can truly collapse as I have been suggesting for ages and we have now seen, though every time I say so I am poo pood but I expect again, and I say so again. But as long as chromium price keeps up, dividend chopped and maybe Karo paused, we should get through and hopefully other PGM miners will fall by the wayside which will eventually reduce worldwide production. However it may be a tough couple of years waiting; just such a shame the balance sheet is now more stretched with hefty interest payments and Karo demanding more cash just at the wrong time in the cycle. How far do you see the share price falling, halving again? Or more?

[sharesoc] 02/7/2023 19:12:12

In case you missed our webinar with Tharisa plc (THS), the recording can be found on our YouTube channel:

[ukgeorge] 29/6/2023 14:39:56

Palladium fundamentals much better than platinum