Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[sotolo] 12/7/2023 09:06

We’ll that best my 70.25 purchase last Thursday, let’s hope we have found a bottom and not a dead cat bounce today

[tigerbythetail] 12/7/2023 08:29

Yes, I did. Only a few so far. Got 69p!
I'll buy more once the share price settles down a bit and the spread narrows later on.

[sotolo] 12/7/2023 08:25

Did you buy more Tiger?

[lennonsalive] 12/7/2023 08:19

Bought some this morning as this is due a rerating

[tigerbythetail] 12/7/2023 08:14

Fairly happy with the update, all in all.
UK George - I agree. IMO, share price is simply too low.

[ukgeorge] 12/7/2023 07:38

Likely a great time to be buying 70p is a bargain.

[strollingmolby] 12/7/2023 06:51

Q3 Production Report
Cash on hand increased by US$36.8 m to US$242.6 m (31 March 2023: US$205.8 m), resulting in a net cash position of US$141.5 m (31 March 2023: US$101.1 m)

[sotolo] 10/7/2023 18:31

Tiger
I often tell people about my wonderful eco car:
It has a range of 550miles
It reacharges from zero to full range in 3 or 4 minutes
All it’s materials have long since been amortised
And it doesn’t spew out many ppm2.5’s, the coming pollution disaster from car tyres in bev’s.
And despite being 20 years old is happily a ULEZ compliant petrol (Jeremy Clarkson told me I couldn’t buy a diesel convertible after ordering one and made me change it, luckily)
The downside is it cost a million pounds in today’s money 20 years ago
When I was single and gave up a spouse’s pension rights for the £35k to buy it, now happily married my spouse would get £60k a year if I hadn’t but will now get diddly squat.
So rather dependent on THS picking up
Hope you are right
However I and most I know are thinking of Bevs for their next vehicles
Plus ICE cars won’t be allowed

[tigerbythetail] 10/7/2023 09:58

Hi Sotolo!
I decided to leave it till Thursday and to see how production is going before buying more. There is just a chance that the share price is reacting to problems (unknown to me) at the mine, rather than to what I believe (PGM prices / general SA woes). This still feels to me like a panic bottom and a buying opportunity, but I don't think waiting three days will make a big difference to my buy-in price, and safety first.
I do take the point about how it takes time for low prices to drive out unprofitable production. However, I still wonder if the current market malaise isn't caused by over-production, as such, but by the release into the market of Russia / NorNickel's strategic reserves of PGMs. Certainly, Russia is selling gold. I know it still looks calm on the surface, but underneath Russia's economy is in turmoil. Most Russians I know, (which includes some "players"), believe defeat in Ukraine is all but inevitable and civil war is more likely than not now.
FWIW, I don't agree with the article you posted on LSE about "the death of ICEs". I thought the underlying statistical assumption on which the forward projection was based was absurd (50% growth p.a.!). You might also look at how 2nd hand prices for EVs are crashing in the West (contrasted to ICE vehicles). Most owners come to regret buying EVs, and the "green" argument for them is flimsy when analysed closely. The greenest thing we can all do is use our old cars as little as possible, and keep them on the road for as long as possible.
Anyhow, it will be interesting to read Tharisa's own market commentary on PGMs on Thursday as well!

[sotolo] 10/7/2023 07:49

Yes Tiger but it is surprising how long miners keep loss making lots going in hope prices will turn, Hochschild Pallancata aisc is now over $30 an ounce for silver while it has been selling around $23 and that has lasted a while so I expect a couple of years of these or lower OGM prices for supply to diminish which would be great apart from demand is still falling too. However IF chromium stays up we are quids in. Tell us what you buy this morning and best of British

[nigelpm] 09/7/2023 10:58

South Africa is in a far worse position than 5 years ago.

[tigerbythetail] 09/7/2023 10:52

I also think this panic drop has gone way too far, so I bought a few on Friday @70.2p and I'm thinking to add more on Monday.
Is Tharisa really in a weaker position than it was five years ago - because that's what the current share price is saying?
I still have reservations about South Africa (as a jurisdiction), but at this price I'm prepared to take the risk. As for PGMs, the market will balance one way or another. At current prices South Africa's PGM deep mining operations must be losing money hand over fist, so a few months of these prices and shafts will start to close.

[sotolo] 06/7/2023 17:20

Well been naughty and reinvested £10k of the divi today as it touched 70p, got 70.25 twice.

[sotolo] 05/7/2023 16:23

No consolation, boohoo, question does rh bottom at 4000 as 2019 or under 1000 as 2015/16, I assume the latter. Also even if Bev vehicle sales slow they are still eating into ice sales

[husbod] 05/7/2023 15:27

If it's any consolation SLP is falling fast too. The situation in South Africa doesn't help either.Did spot that one of the major German car makers has halted production of its EV range as demand has fallen short of expectations. Lot of pressure in Germany to extend the time period for the cessation of ICE vehicle production and could well be the same here.Not that my lithium miners are doing much better atm.

[sotolo] 05/7/2023 15:08

Tiger, demand for these metals is falling and remember a small fall, ie from a worldwide production deficit to surplus, can have a very big effect on price. Ice worldwide sales are accelerating their tumble, which has been much heralded and is now here. And when metals like rh are hit by this they can truly collapse as I have been suggesting for ages and we have now seen, though every time I say so I am poo pood but I expect again, and I say so again. But as long as chromium price keeps up, dividend chopped and maybe Karo paused, we should get through and hopefully other PGM miners will fall by the wayside which will eventually reduce worldwide production. However it may be a tough couple of years waiting; just such a shame the balance sheet is now more stretched with hefty interest payments and Karo demanding more cash just at the wrong time in the cycle. How far do you see the share price falling, halving again? Or more?

[sharesoc] 02/7/2023 19:12

In case you missed our webinar with Tharisa plc (THS), the recording can be found on our YouTube channel:

[ukgeorge] 29/6/2023 14:39

Palladium fundamentals much better than platinum

[tigerbythetail] 29/6/2023 14:29

Epic bust in PGM prices now - platinum below $900, palladium below $1200, and rhodium at $2500 (all Kitco prices, so take the Rh bid with a pinch of salt).
Most price predictions I've read for PGMs this year has been flat-out wrong. I still wonder if Russia /Norilsk Nickel weren't holding a bigger strategic reserve of PGMs than the market thought, and if this isn't that reserve being liquidated en masse. Demand for these metals hasn't suddenly vanished, so the cause of this price crash is a bit of a mystery.
At some point the South African deep miners are going to start cutting back production. (And they are more reliant on Eskom than THS as well). So the market will eventually balance again.

[husbod] 22/6/2023 13:35

This share has been on my watchlist for some time and I keep reading very positive reviews of the company. But as a substantial holder in JLP and SLP already (and seen their values sink) I will not be increasing my exposure to South African miners until and unless there is some indication that the government is getting a grip on the endemic corruption and incompetence that is ruining a great country. Whether that will happen in the short term must be highly unlikely so THS will just have to stay on my watchlist for the time being.

[tigerbythetail] 22/6/2023 09:54

Hi Sotolo!
There's a couple of good posts on LSE about the (very low) valuation of THS, so I won't bother to repeat here.
I'd add that IMO the biggest risk here is not anything connected to Tharisa or PGMs, as such, but geo-political. The SA government is behaving / has behaved with incredible (almost mind-boggling) stupidity, and the consequences for SA may be dire. As the 33rd biggest economy in the world, with huge structural problems (e.g. Eskom, but not only), SA simply can not afford to get sanctioned. And yet...
(FWIW, this is why I'm holding back for now on all SA shares).

THURSDAY JUNE 22 2023

South Africa’s perceived ‘friendship217; with Russia is already severely hurting the southern African country economically – with potentially full-blown United States sanctions not yet ruled out.

The Americans are still considering what to do about South Africa allowing a specifically sanctioned Russian cargo vessel, the Lady R, to dock at the Simonstown naval command near Cape Town, there allegedly loading weapons, or weapons-related cargo, early last December.

Last month, the US ambassador made an extraordinary public allegation that the South Africans had not only allowed a sanctioned vessel to dock but had further violated international sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine by supplying Russia with unspecified military equipment, believed likely to include electronic components for high-tech weapons systems.

The subsequent diplomatic row triggered a crisis in US-SA relations, that rift still not having been resolved, despite several missions to Washington by various South African delegations, one sent by President Cyril Ramaphosa, another by the opposition Democratic Alliance.

Even without further direct sanctions from Washington over the Lady R saga, the impact of South Africa’s perceived leaning towards Russia put severe negative pressure on the South African currency, which plunged to its lowest-ever value against a basket of currencies including the dollar and the euro.

hxxps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/rest-of-africa/sa-economic-crisis-deepens-as-friendship-with-russia-spurs-4279382

[sotolo] 21/6/2023 08:15

Gosh nobody has posted on this board for a month now! It is getting a little scary as the PGM price continues to fall week by week as it has for a couple of years, with no sign of an end, but now chromium that has been our saviour has turned down too, along with the Chinese economy. Now pgm basket around $1600 and a fair bit less for Karo and chromium down over 3% this week or around 290. Does anyone have any idea of our rough aisc at here prices for Tharis and Karo PGM’s and for the Tharisa chromium. I understand it is not easy as the mix has changed with PGM halving and chromium doubling, I presume that more (almost all) profit now comes from chromium.
And the biggest question for Last, will we have enough cash flow to fund Karo, or will we have to borrow more at penal rates

[ukgeorge] 24/5/2023 09:31

for inventories, I think it can mean a couple of things, so you would have spare parts, diesel and other consumables, that are bought as stock gets lower then used so the costs of them might be in one or a couple of hits but then they only count as operating costs as they are consumed.

Then there is the end product the metals. These wouldn't be shipped out on a daily basis, so again I would think the $14.9M is just simply how much metal and say spare parts they have.

I guess it can be negative if a large amount of a consumable has been delivered but not paid for. I'm not an account so could be wrong.