Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 07/11/2024 19:59

Barra, absolutely spot on! it doesn't take much for buyers confidence to return, it probably wont be a quick recovery but there will be a prolonged recovery, unfortunately some people do get scared into believing house price will crash, interest rates will go to 6%, then there are two elections & the budget which also worries people, now they are out the way I expect to see moment increasing, yes we may have inherited a bit of hard ship but high rates don't seem to have deterred that many buyers & h2b clearly wasn't as important to sales as some would like you to think., people on here harp on about affordability but that is because we are so short houses but I really don't think some posters can grasp the enormity of the problem, what I like about TW tu is that they said they would build & sell xxx amount of houses & that is exactly what they have done, so where is the affordability issue, profits to be bang on as expected so what is the problem? of course profits will be down if you build 30% less houses, of course cash reserves will fall if your buying land. even finishing sites off(about 20 this year?) can cost several million pounds to multipull million pounds with roads sewers & landscaping what Sicklywittlerdodiedoom doesn't mention is that his beloved TLY has used considerable cash reserves but whitewashes this with a minuscule return to profit!

[kreature] 07/11/2024 19:57

‘The highest ever recorded, how so?’

Cos they mortgaged a few multi million pound houses, lifting the average of the 20 others sold ?

[danvandan] 07/11/2024 19:29

baracuda, before I accuse you of dishonestly cobbling together some positive remarks from the half yr comments, please let me know which 'experts' said this and when, and post a link. When rampers start behaving dishonestly because they've become utterly desperate, that's when EVERYONE knows the game is up, so let's have a bit of honest ownership from you.

Regarding YOUR message, sales are NOT 'up sharply'. They might be up slightly. The more significant metric though, is profit, and this is DOWN AGAIN. TW is looking for a 'supportive environment' and this is what's missing. Houses are unaffordable at current prices and interest rates, rates will remain higher for longer, and after Trump does his mischief, could go much higher still, so please stop trying to kid anyone.

Regarding cash, that continues to fall. Right now, TW has enough cash to payout ONE YEAR OF DIVIDENDS only - because 7% of its recent value caused a payout of £340m. Another drop in profitability will bring the business perilously close to insufficient cash for a payout next year, and then debt will increase, or the dividend policy will have to change, or the business's value will have to be written down - something will have to give.

So far, TW has managed to get away with promising that things can only get better, but from a financial perspective they are consistently getting worse. Very soon now, investors will take fright and exit in a big way. £1 is coming. Just like winter.

[baracuda2] 07/11/2024 18:58

This is what the experts sayOur viewTaylor Wimpey's trading update showed that things are moving in the right direction. A combination of real house price declines and lower mortgage rates have eased some of the affordability pressures on buyers of late. That's seen sales rates rise sharply since the half-year mark.And with UK inflation looking largely under control, markets expect rates to keep falling well into 2025. Lower rates are a tailwind for buyers, increasing their purchasing power. A potential homebuyer with a £1500 monthly mortgage budget has over 10% more borrowing capability at 4.0% than 5.0%.4,728 new homes were completed in the first half, meaning the top end of the group's 9,500-10,000 full-year target looks well within reach. That's given management the confidence that full-year operating profit will meet market forecasts of around £416mn.That profit forecast would mark a decline of around 10% year-over-year. But there's potential for a recovery in the housing market to gather steam in 2025, supporting consensus forecasts that profits will rebound back past 2023 levels. Brits are ideologically committed to home ownership and the country has been in a prolonged period of housing undersupply, a trend that's unlikely to change anytime soon.The landbank is a particular strength for Taylor Wimpey, who have a robust pipeline of potential projects. Despite this, it's been active with its land buying of late. Worries about tax changes in the run-up to the Government's budget brought new sellers to the table, and the group looks to have pounced. Full-year cash balances will be lower as a result, but there's still a big cushion in place so it's not something we're concerned about.But there are still challenges to navigate.The sector's facing ongoing labour and supply chain challenges, and planning permission disruptions remain a thorn in the group's side. We're pleased to see the new government promise to refresh the national planning framework, but it'll likely be a while before the impact of these changes are felt by housebuilders.The current dividend policy is linked to asset value, rather than earnings. That means investors are more likely to receive a base level of dividend even in a downturn. But remember, dividend policies can change on a dime. No dividends are guaranteed.There's still plenty of uncertainty ahead, with margins likely to remain under pressure in the near term. But there are tentative signs of improved buyer activity, and with a longer-term lens, the valuation remains attractive. Given its robust financial position and a strong pipeline of land, Taylor Wimpey is one of our preferred names in the sector.

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 18:46

Halifax's monthly house price index found that the cost of the average home hit £293,999 in October, the highest ever recorded, outstripping the £293,507 reached in June 2022.

The highest ever recorded, how so?

[danvandan] 07/11/2024 17:32

At least he isn't talking about dying today. But he is imagining the share price getting down to 40p. Blimey!

[uhound] 07/11/2024 17:30

Jugears has fallen in to the trap of falling in love with a stock. Can't see that there are better opportunities for investment at this time and have been for a while.

Does not understand that affordability is an issue for those wanting to buy a house, otherwise why has TW reduced the amount of houses it has been building?

Thinks most TW buyers are wealthy and don't need mortgages. Out of touch with the reality.

Thinks the economy is booming!

[danvandan] 07/11/2024 17:30

13 posts from pigsear today. Probably even more yesterday. Not really the behaviour of someone who doesn't mind where the shareprice goes.

[kreature] 07/11/2024 17:12

‘ I ghave know doubt these will be £2 some time in the future’

and you had no doubt these would be back to 1.60 this week. Remember you lost badly on 2 stocks in the last 50 years, what went wrong there ?

[jugears] 07/11/2024 17:03

Sick I think you under estimate how much people in the uk get paid & how much disposable income MOST people have, is that because you live in a far away land outside the UK perhaps?
The first interest rate could made a marked improvement in houses sales & so will the next one given time
Why worry if I'm down. if the share price fell to 40p I still would be in profit on my entire holding in TW, I don't need to worry short term about things outside my control idiots that have to sell lose money I don't have to sell so I'm not losing anything, I ghave know doubt these will be £2 some time in the future even if it takes a few years its still hell of an investment compared to the bank, I may not purchase my shares at the perfect time but I've only lost money on two in nearly 50 years so I must be doing something right, I am ver cofident that over the years I have made a lot more than you

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 16:41

Jugears,

GE
over - new govn

Interest rate cuts
TWO interest rate cuts - which should have provided a huge boost to HBs.
Rates will stay higher for longer. Bad for current mortgage holders coming off low interest rates.

Budget
over - little to help HBs but huge increase in taxes will impact affordability and for companies with huge labour, huge increases in costs
Budget policies are inflationary

US Election
over - Trump's policies are inflationary

PSN & TW TU
published, shows falls in sales, cash, profits.

All 'good' news in the public domain and factored into the price.
The uncertainty, how long rates will stay higher, what about the Ukraine/Middle East wars, what about inflationary pressures, how many will suffer huge increases in mortgage debt, how much will housing slowdown etc etc is not in the public domain



Yet the share price is falling.

continuing trend of declining cash, falling sales, profits...

Labour and Trump are in power for the next 4+years


It really is simple. You can ignore the facts if you wish.

I know you're down £300k over the past couple of weeks and so can understand your annoyance but you can't change facts.
That's what happens when you follow clueless posters like your mate Becky.

[brenman] 07/11/2024 16:34

You're talking about recovery but tax has just increased for Taylor Wimpey's customers and the Trump win in the US bodes badly for the UK economy. Mortgage rates are going up again, despite the BoE rates coming down a fraction. The small rise in house prices is making no difference to TW profits. It looks like a false dawn to me. I'm looking for the bull case but there doesn't seem to be one. The market generally does not like the trading update. To argue otherwise is to ignore the facts.

[brenman] 07/11/2024 16:29

@jugears, you're ignoring the facts. A 10% fall in profits is a continuation of the declining profit trend. Rates have been falling but it has made no difference. Cash is also reducing year on year for multiple years.

[jugears] 07/11/2024 15:32

sickydodieday,Profits are not falling like a stone, are you really worried about 10% ??, considering how high rates have been I think its lucky they were not lower than that, the point now is that rates are falling & house sales are increasing, house builders always recover from a down turn quicker than any other industry,
What will you be spending your dividend on next week? a macdonalds????LOOOOL

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 15:09

"Beckers2008 - 02 Sep 2024 - 11:10:39 - 5689 of 5788

Remember my statement...

BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!

I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024.
I am correct again!!

The latest cut will be followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.

Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!"

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 14:23

DVD,
absolutely. The 2 muppets desperate to hide your post!!


DanVanDan7 Nov '24 - 13:57 - 19487 of 19490
0.120000 1 0
If you're wondering why the share price is falling back again after the update this morning, you should perhaps pay attention to some of the big numbers:

We continue to expect to deliver full year 2024 UK volumes excluding JVs towards the upper end of our guidance range of 9,500 to 10,000 homes, and to deliver Group operating profit in line with current market expectations.

1 As published on 5 November 2024, the Company compiled consensus expectation for full year 2024 Group operating profit including joint ventures and excluding exceptional items is £416 million.

Unfortunately £416m is more than 10% lower than the 2023 profit of 470m, and 2023 was a terrible year because profit had HALVED from the previous year. The full yr 2024 estimate is actually 11.5% lower than 2023. Despite all the warm words and optimism, profit is falling like a stone because volumes remain low and costs remain high. There is no prospect of either of these issues changing in the near term.

[danvandan] 07/11/2024 13:57

If you're wondering why the share price is falling back again after the update this morning, you should perhaps pay attention to some of the big numbers:

We continue to expect to deliver full year 2024 UK volumes excluding JVs towards the upper end of our guidance range of 9,500 to 10,000 homes, and to deliver Group operating profit in line with current market expectations.

1 As published on 5 November 2024, the Company compiled consensus expectation for full year 2024 Group operating profit including joint ventures and excluding exceptional items is £416 million.

Unfortunately £416m is more than 10% lower than the 2023 profit of 470m, and 2023 was a terrible year because profit had HALVED from the previous year. The full yr 2024 estimate is actually 11.5% lower than 2023. Despite all the warm words and optimism, profit is falling like a stone because volumes remain low and costs remain high. There is no prospect of either of these issues changing in the near term.

[jugears] 07/11/2024 13:25

Sikh, we had a long discussion about cala & exactly why it didn't fit well with TW.
Where is the the legal binding contract between share holders & TW ref a dividend circa 7.5% Nav, I haven't got one, there is no legal obligation to pay anything, if that is why some people are here then you are misinformed,Dividends could cease tomorrow if they so wish, it is a desire to pay but not a legal obligation although I am confident that Tw will & can continue with a dividend,haven't cash reserves been used for land purchases???? & if they have so much in the bank & lets face it 500 million is not to be sniffed at but why don't they spend it on more land or give it to share holders, pointless having that much in reserve IMEO.

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 13:09

Sikhthetech,

Just in case you missed it over on TLY BB.
No, not your premium ramping BB, where you ban anyone that talks sense! Lol!

"f66,

You are asking a bit much of the village idiot 'Sikhthetech' lol!

It doesn't know the difference between the BoE Base Rate and the Bank to Bank lending rate, lol, just lol!"

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 13:06

UH/Kreature,

Re TU & Cash.

Yes, as expected, cash is declining fast. I believe their divi policy is flawed.

I think they couldn't afford CALA homes because of their divi policy.
Investors get the divi but cash is depleating and so is capital.



sikhthetech - 18 Sep 2024 - 13:34:28 - 19052 of 19482
Jugears

"I can assure you TW didn't want cala homes."

How do you know TW didn't want CALA? More likely they couldn't afford them given cash has been in decline and their committed divi policy, where they have to pay c7.5% of NAV or the share price will crash.