Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[citytilidie] 13/11/2024 15:46

Yep, FTSE just went below 8000, and I’m sure it won’t be the bottom. Voters have very short term memories after what Blair and Brown did to the UK the last time they got in power. Lemmings come to mind.

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 15:44

t2,

Tax and spend Labour party, always have and always will be.
As for building 300,000 houses a year, lol, just lol!

[tlobs2] 13/11/2024 15:34

It looks like the markets really love Starmer and Reeves ;-)

[uhound] 13/11/2024 15:33

House builders only build what they can sell. Yes, of course.

We can't sell like we were in the past because although there is a housing shortage, what with now NORMAL interest rates again, people can't afford to buy!

Wage growth has not kept pace with house prices.

As mentioned previously, if unemployment rises (which it is) and the economy does not pick up, then I can't see how the housebuilders will start ramping up numbers.

Unless house prices decline - which cuts margins etc, etc.

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2024 15:25

Jugears,
Over the past few weeks, have those who shorted from 168p made more money than those who held on? Yes, that's the point... since 2020 shorted, traded hyped sector, shorted - made money both ways.

Whereas you're down £400k and counting over the past few weeks!!

[sunshine today] 13/11/2024 15:25

3% margins will see the shares well under 10p

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2024 15:23

EI

I expect there will be a surge in sales in Q1 because some buyers will be trying to get in before Stamp Duty changes taking affect from April. This always causes a false impression, like it did as covid support ended June-Sept 2021.

This is, of course will be just for that qtr as it was back in 2021 but I expect the rampers will claim it as a trend for the entire year.

The bigger picture is huge tax rises, affordability, house prices too high.


We have Labour for the next 4+ years, so don't expect things to turn around so quickly.

[jugears] 13/11/2024 15:16

Buit website hits are greatest at Christmas whilst people are off work!

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2024 15:14

Q4 is usually the weakest for the sector,
With Q1, the strongest.

This is a general rule, there are always exceptions.

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 15:14

Sikhthetech,

You are evading my question, lol!

Do you follow 'British Bulls' for your learned TA analysis, lol!

Now, when is the house price crash going to happen, lol!
Come on tell us, you have been wrong for only 6 years, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 13/11/2024 15:11

sikh, they were not huge tax rises in the budget & the ones that were effect businesses more not the man in the street & you posts go bla bla bla lol, just one quarter cut in interest rates negate all taxes, as its not been a week yet since the last cut so we do not know what effect it will since Thursday.

[jugears] 13/11/2024 15:09

Ess, not really a decline in sales when you tell investors 12 months in advance you are building 9-10000k houses this year & then you go & sell all those houses that they chose to build,I've read the Tu many times but just ca't find where it says they couldn't sell those houses that they said they would build? they have hit their target bang on IMEO. TW said two years ago that they were cutting production by a third & then so did all the other houses builder, I understand from friends in the industry that they are planning more sites next year & suspect the other few house builders will follow suite, what would have been more worrying would have been if they planed to build all those houses & had 2k left, margins will always fall on lower sales, then you have sites that are coming to an end which costs money, land purchases etc, these are still going on whether you build 15K houses or 10k houses. IMEO Tw will continue plodding on building & selling houses & making a profit & paying a dividend, some years it will be up & some years it will be down just like most businesses, Hence why I stay here, Tw has a pattern it rises & it falls, that's investing but you only lose when you sell, it doesn't worry me I could go out & buy a very expensive new car that would continue to fall in value, shares do go back up more often than not! I would have a massive tax build if I sold any anyway so selling any at 1.68-70 wouldn't benefit me as a high rate tax payer, at least if I lose a bit I pay less tax lol.

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2024 15:05

EI

"What did crash, were margins, combined with
a fall in volumes sold"

And Cash.

caused by..
And lack of support from the govn.
And affordability problems.
And huge tax rises.
And Labour with their usual tax and spend
And Trump winning.

We have Labour and Trump in power for 4+ years.


Help to Buy ended 2 years ago. There's no replacement, the govn simply can't afford one, making it even more difficult for FTBs.

[sikhthetech] 13/11/2024 15:01

DVD/UH/Kreature,

Exactly, there's still an affordability problem.

The huge tax rises in the budget negate the interest rate cuts. Borrows who took out fixed rate mortgages at low rates over the past 5 years, face huge increases in mortgage premiums.

There's already been 2 interest rate cuts. These, together with the budget, were supposed to be a huge boost to HBs!! They clearly weren't.

Given expectations of a subdued housing market over the next couple of years, I think it's likely there will be dividend cuts and placings.


All newsflow has been as expected.




Jugears/Becky are like Bad Sisters, the movie!!

"Any Trace of joy has been obliterated"

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 14:46

K,

Is that your adage, 'short when everyone is buying' lol!
SP went to well over £1.60 after you shorted at £1.09, lol!

Have you reported me to ADFVN Admin yet?

Will they know who you are, as part of a Large group created by Joseph Sheedy, lol, just lol!

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2024 14:39

House prices did not need to crash to batter the P&L.

What did crash, were margins, combined with
a fall in volumes sold.

[kreature] 13/11/2024 14:23

“As Warren Buffet says, buy when others are fearful!”

I see the Buffet quote is being wheeled out. All very well buying when others are fearful so long as there’s not another quid to drop and a load of sleepless nights

[yf23_1] 13/11/2024 14:15

This is like a falling jug, to pass to the next eager mug.
It won't break when it hits the floor,
but the contents spilled will make you poor !

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 14:10

Sikhthetech,

You are evading my question, lol!

Do you follow 'British Bulls' for your learned TA analysis, lol!

Now, when is the house price crash going to happen, lol!
Come on tell us, you have been wrong for only 6 years, lol, just lol!

[uhound] 13/11/2024 14:03

Jugears likes to give the impression he is some kind of amazing investor/businessman.

If he was, he could have made far more money than buying and holding TW shares for a life-time. Nothing wrong with buy and hold, but if you have the skills, you can make far superior returns.

Jugears and the like will criticise those who trade because he does not have the inclination or the knowledge.

[danvandan] 13/11/2024 13:38

The first of pigsear's many daily posts telling us how much he doesn't mind losing tens of thousands on his investment, and maybe even hundreds of thousands (if his grandiose claims are to be believed), plus his claim that TW is the only company that can build houses and how everyone needs a six-bedroom house. I wonder which alternative universe he has beamed in from.

Meanwhile the shares continue on an almost straight line decline with rising volume as people exit this share. I imagine TW will do well as a company at some point, but that could be years from now. In the meantime, we are heading to sub £1 fast. GLA.

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 12:50

DvD,

Are you keeping a close eye on 'British Bulls' advice, lol!

Have you learnt the difference between resistance and support, lol, just lol!