Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 12/11/2024 15:51

Sickly,I'm in vested for the long term, as I don't plan to sell any then I don't need to worry about paper losses, Tw are not going to go bust but they will continue to build & sell houses, I don't need to make a living on the stock market, I don't believe you are riding this all the way to the bottom as like everyone on this board none of us know where that is, what I do Know is that few people make money from shorting!!!!, the shares could be £1 or £10 it doesn't matter what they are until the day I sell all thoughts shares that are bought & paid for, the fall in the share price price is not restricted to hb's its across the whole market, now I have been invsesting long enough to know that every now & again the markets get their knickers in a twist & have a mardy, buying opportunity I call it!
AS you know I bought TLY at 15p & sold at 21p for very good reason, I will never be tempted back, at least here I never lose money over the long term, even with TW's volatility the share price always comes back & will do again & again & again.
I bet your looking forward to Thursdays dividend?

[baracuda2] 12/11/2024 15:39

This is so oversold now, absolute bargain

[beckers2008] 12/11/2024 15:06

Oh look, Wimps is marginally down from my sale price.
I would say I told you so, but I will leave that to the village idiots, one who has been calling a house price crash for 6 years and the other who follows 'British Bulls' for it entry and exit points, lol, just lol!

[baracuda2] 12/11/2024 15:05

Well I know what I'll be doing with my dividend payment this week, I wonder if you get a dividend if you short a share? These trolls must be desperate, constant posts, thankfully they are all filtered, happy days ahead

[sikhthetech] 12/11/2024 14:51

I see the share price continues down, as predicted.

Whereas TLY is rising and doubled this year, despite Jugear's/Becky claims. All those contracts TLY have announced, the govn need to reduce waiting lists and the huge amount of money being pumped into the NHS.

Maybe the realistic posters should research TLY. If they bought TLY, that would really upset Jugears and Becky, given they are desperately deramping it.
;-)


Jugears,
Who's making money on HBs over past couple of months. Those who have shorted or those who have held??

[sikhthetech] 12/11/2024 14:43

1carus

Re New builds, energy saying and Premium

A New build can command 20-30-40% premium. That can equate to £50-60k more than existing builds, including properties which were 'new builds' only few years ago.
It makes no sense to pay £60k more so to obtain property which is insulated with a solar panel on the roof. Buy a 15-20year old property and stick a solar panel on. As a 15-20year old property, it'll save you tens of thousands of pounds.
Plus any builds problems(and there are usually many) will be resolved by the original buyer during the 1st 15-20yrs.

In any case, I would have thought wind power not solar would be more affective in Scotland

[sikhthetech] 12/11/2024 14:34

Kreature
"So perhaps ownerous covenants will be more relevant and factored in by the banks more in future"

Not in the future. They already are
Today's article:



Our flat’s rising ground rent is going to ruin our move

Our buyer’s lender has pulled out because the charge rises with the property’s rising value.


"We found a buyer for our leasehold flat, but on the day of exchange their lender declined to offer a mortgage, despite having previously agreed in principle. The reason was a provision in the lease for the ground rent, currently £200 per annum, to be amended every 25 years according to the market value of the property. We had no trouble securing a mortgage when we purchased the property, and it has not prevented sales of other flats in the building. "

"Some ground rents of newer developments are allowed, by small print in the lease, to double every 10 or 20 years, or, in your more unusual case, to rise with the value of the property. Developers can make big profits by writing onerous clauses into the leases, then selling the freehold to investors, who are guaranteed an income stream in return for ­nothing at all."

"“This is an example of the property sector dumping new homeowners into highly complex ground rent terms,” he said. “The dozy banks that initially lent on these properties have now woken up to the implications of highly aggressive lease terms. The obvious question is: why did they not spot these rip-offs when the leases were first sold and tell the housebuilder to rewrite them or they would not lend?”"

[kreature] 12/11/2024 14:26

Imagine having to pretend that you have a load of other posters filtered and ignored. Surely you’d need to constantly be reminding yourself not to respond ?

[kreature] 12/11/2024 14:24

‘ New builds up here in Scotland now come with solar pretty much as minimum so hopefully buyers will be buying into lower energy properties th,

I heard that the home owner effectively does not own the roof because of the energy company’s solar panels attached to it. But doesn’t matter cos the freehold will be fake anyway probably

[sunshine today] 12/11/2024 12:33

Higher production will kill off profits, (of more than 3% a year), even less, as big land write downs will also be required.

TW just can’t keep a lid on costs, as all the large players think, stupidly, they can get back up to pre covid production levels.

Not a chance in hell, are they are going to hit way higher, govt targets.

The divi being paid today will be clawed back in future placings, to stave off bankruptcy later on.

[jugears] 12/11/2024 12:16

Its like buying a new car,you are always going to pay a premium, some people just want a new home, some people buy them because there is a growing population in their area & need to buy a home & that is all there is, some people buy them because they are near schools & amenities, bus routes etc, some people perhaps don't want to live in Victorian terraces in cities like Bradford/Leeds/Leicester/Birmingham etc & some people want to get out of one of the thousands of condemned houses.

[danvandan] 12/11/2024 12:05

Fleecehold agreements will be the next PPI or 'car finance' miss-selling scandal. It's a ticking time-bomb for the housebuilders who've employed this scam. The shares will crash on the first successful challenge by a homeowner or group of homeowners, especially if it leads to a government investigation (which is almost inevitable).

[1carus] 12/11/2024 10:45

New builds have an issue that the build costs include hidden costs to the local councils for provisions for things like schools etc so there is a premium. That said they kind of set the bench mark for costs in the area pulling up the value of similar property etc. New builds up here in Scotland now come with solar pretty much as minimum so hopefully buyers will be buying into lower energy properties than they were say 10 years ago. They are also well insulated and are probably a lot more secure. Also most are being built with EV chargers too. It is a no brainer for a lot of people to just buy new.

[kreature] 12/11/2024 07:56

“ Look for the banks to down value on completion inspection, keeping the builders in line.”

and possibly to down value on ‘ownerous covenants’. Had a professional RICS valuation done recently and it stated in the report, ‘assuming no ownerous covenants’. Ive read through a recent new build TP1 land reg title (not TW) and it is bursting with ownerous covenants. Eg no music, no shed to be erected in garden , no washing in garden on a Sunday etc etc . So perhaps ownerous covenants will be more relevant and factored in by the banks more in future

[sunshine today] 12/11/2024 06:46

Oh dear

Santandare just put there mortgage rate up by 0.26% specifically on ‘new builds’

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

New builds are a far higher risk to the lender, as the house builders just slap on what they like in an attempt to hold up margins on what they sell.

Look for the banks to down value on completion inspection, keeping the builders in line.

As site labour costs rocket, those builders need 10% plus a year on prices just to stand still.

[beckers2008] 12/11/2024 00:36

Sikhthetech,

You are evading my question, lol!

Do you follow 'British Bulls' for your learned TA analysis, lol!

Now, when is the house price crash going to happen, lol!
Come on tell us, you have been wrong for only 6 years, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 11/11/2024 21:22

Oh dear

Santandare just put there mortgage rate up by 0.26% specifically on ‘new builds’

[jugears] 11/11/2024 20:57

Yawn yawn yawn, might do, may do, but more likely won't, best policy is never to take dividends for granted, I don't, I would hope that Tw would suspend dividends to preseve cash IF necessary, didn't do them any damage during covid when the dividend was cancelled. So far the housing market has defied all of sickywickybooringdodiedays predictions! There is know escaping the fact that the UK needs new houses, whether they are built now or next year someone has to build them & over the last 4 years the number of house builders & regional House builder has declined substantially, you say yiu know the housing market but clearly have no understanding of the housing crisis that is looming.The housing market may seem subdued but all the hb's have sold exactly the amount of houses they said they would, how strange?

[sikhthetech] 11/11/2024 20:57

Kreature

"Can you not see that when house prices rise, less people can afford them ?"


Exactly. Affordability is still a problem.

Housing market is subdued and is likely to remain so for some time yet.
Labour are in power for 4+ years, so unless there's a change, HBs will continue to suffer for now.

Budget was bad for HBs.

[beckers2008] 11/11/2024 20:53

Sikhthetech,

Are you seriously agreeing with DvD, when it has evidently proven that it follows advice from 'British Bulls' Lol!

You really are the village idiot, lol!

Now, when is the house price crash going to happen, lol!
Come on tell us, you have been wrong for only 6 years, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 11/11/2024 20:31

DVD,

"the dividend is spiralling downward as the business loses value and even the most optimistic forecaster is pointing out that the dividend policy is likely to change."

Absolutely. I see their divi policy as flawed. c7.5% of NAV will become unaffordable if housing market remains subdued.
If they changed their dividend policy then there'll be serious questions over whether their cash will last for this property cycle.

[kreature] 11/11/2024 19:40

60s 50s 40s 30s…,,,Can tell we’re only 8p away from the 20s just from the length and quantity of jugs posts.

‘as interest rates fall buyers return & house prices increase,’

Can you not see that when house prices rise, less people can afford them ?

[1carus] 11/11/2024 18:01

What margin does TW make on a house?. I mean, if it has wiggle room in it they have the oprtion to control the price point to either increase or decrease sales. The latter they probably dont want to do, as it reduces the overall base price to sell off in the future.I guess they run pricing models looking forward ti maximise their returns, even if that means taking lower sales in a given period

[sikhthetech] 11/11/2024 17:30

View from expert - company which actually works within the housing market!!


As expected, the long term effects on house price growth due to interest rates staying higher for longer and the huge tax rises in the budget. Labour is in power for 4+ years!!. As I and others have said, The budget was bad for HBs.



Leading UK estate agent cuts its longer-term house price growth forecast
Hamptons says ‘modest’ rises can be expected amid ‘dampening effect’ of higher interest rates overall


Expectations that UK interest rates may stay higher for longer, as well as revenue-raising measures in the budget, have prompted a leading estate agent to cut its forecast for house price growth over the longer term.

The revised forecast from Hamptons came days after Halifax and Nationwide banks said the annual rate of property price growth had slowed, with the former saying it was likely to be “modest … for the rest of this year and into next”.


However, it has downgraded its forecast for 2026 from 5% to 3.5%, which it said “reflects the dampening effect of higher interest rates alongside a fairly lacklustre and higher tax economy, which, while set to improve, remains weak on a historical basis”.

Beyond that, Hamptons said that “the new era of interest rates, likely to remain above 3%,” was expected to temper house price growth.

“The combined effect of persistently higher interest rates and sluggish economic growth is likely to dampen long-term house price performance compared to previous cycles,” said Aneisha Beveridge, the head of research at the estate agent.