Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 11/11/2024 10:05

Sikh, TBF I am conservative through & through & have always done well with conservatives in power but I have also done well with Labour, so its swings & roundabouts really, conservatives biggest mistake was allowing HS2 to proceed, a railway that no one wanted & a railway we couldn't afford!
I think a lot of hb's having sold their target of houses this year will ramp up production in 2025 & we will see a steady rise in profits, you mention cost of planning changes, as far as I can see there wont be any? other than if building on grey belt, i'm not sure where build cost come in as at the moment material prices haven't risen now for nearly 6 months & have gone down in a lot of cases, national insurance will set TW back around a million a year or £100 per houses which is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

[kreature] 11/11/2024 08:11

Oh dear…….onward and backward by the look of it

[itynan] 10/11/2024 22:04

Taylor Wimpey's trading update showed that things are moving in the right direction. A combination of real house price declines and lower mortgage rates have eased some of the affordability pressures on buyers of late. That's seen sales rates rise sharply since the half-year mark.And with UK inflation looking largely under control, markets expect rates to keep falling well into 2025. Lower rates are a tailwind for buyers, increasing their purchasing power. A potential homebuyer with a £1500 monthly mortgage budget has over 10% more borrowing capability at 4.0% than 5.0%.4,728 new homes were completed in the first half, meaning the top end of the group's 9,500-10,000 full-year target looks well within reach. That's given management the confidence that full-year operating profit will meet market forecasts of around £416mn.That profit forecast would mark a decline of around 10% year-over-year. But there's potential for a recovery in the housing market to gather steam in 2025, supporting consensus forecasts that profits will rebound back past 2023 levels. Brits are ideologically committed to home ownership and the country has been in a prolonged period of housing undersupply, a trend that's unlikely to change anytime soon.The landbank is a particular strength for Taylor Wimpey, who have a robust pipeline of potential projects. Despite this, it's been active with its land buying of late. Worries about tax changes in the run-up to the Government's budget brought new sellers to the table, and the group looks to have pounced. Full-year cash balances will be lower as a result, but there's still a big cushion in place so it's not something we're concerned about.But there are still challenges to navigate.The sector's facing ongoing labour and supply chain challenges, and planning permission disruptions remain a thorn in the group's side. We're pleased to see the new government promise to refresh the national planning framework, but it'll likely be a while before the impact of these changes are felt by housebuilders.The current dividend policy is linked to asset value, rather than earnings. That means investors are more likely to receive a base level of dividend even in a downturn. But remember, dividend policies can change on a dime. No dividends are guaranteed.There's still plenty of uncertainty ahead, with margins likely to remain under pressure in the near term. But there are tentative signs of improved buyer activity, and with a longer-term lens, the valuation remains attractive. Given its robust financial position and a strong pipeline of land, Taylor Wimpey is one of our preferred names in the sector.

[kreature] 10/11/2024 20:06

Biggest Jugs
post ever!

Massive
red flag

No one cares about the now jugs. It’s the future that is worrying: build cost inflation, cost of new building regs, NI cost increases, etc

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2024 19:45

spawny100,

"The autumn season and runup to Christmas is always a slow season for housing transactions isn't it?"

HBs have had a continuous slow season for years now. lol


The crucial point is we have Labour in power now for the next 4+ years.

[jugears] 10/11/2024 17:13

Spawny, I think most people look over christmas.

[jugears] 10/11/2024 17:04

I'm talking houses not shares price! My entire holding is worth 4 times the purchase price in 15 years, including all share purchases up to Friday last week (that's 300% or 20% per year gain, even Aviva couldn't match that!) where I have had to take NO risk at all,I've had No sleepless nights, I've Not had to borrow money & I haven't used a penny I need, I am fully aware that housing is cyclical & fully aware that higher interest rates impact sales, I am also fully aware that in 2019 the uk wasn't building anywhere near enough houses & that production has fallen by about 30% a year for the last 5 years, the uk deficit is now circa 1 million houses, theses are houses ranging across the board in size, not just cheap affordable starter homes, if & its a big if UK gov found a hidden magic wand & built 1.5 million homes we would still be short of half a million homes. Very few hb's want to commit to just social housing, land to expensive & lack of profit, partnering only works when some one else is footing the bill, that will need to be local councils(not a chance) or as it is currently housing associations, But they don't have the money either as far as this country is concerned we are in a very deep rut as far as future housing needs are concerned some one needs to fund land purchases,fund the cost of building & reap the huge reward at the end of it, With Vistry now building third party houses to rent, several off site builders having gone bust & bdev take over of RDW & the condensing that will follow has left even fewer companies to build new houses, then add on all the regional builders that have gone bust in the last 2 years & you are already looking at a reduced production ability of about 10-20%!! which is huge!!, I am happy to wait & add more with money I don't need, I'm not suggesting that things wont get worse be fore they get better but they will certainly get better soon.
At the end of the day I buy shares in TW & have only ever sold once, I am not a gambler & don't take un-calculated risks either, I am not bothered about buying at the bottom although that is a bonus,I don't worry if shares fall when I have purchased them, I can't actually remember any that haven't over the years but all came good in the end, Anything below £1.50 is a bargain here, hence adding large amounts 89p/98p/1.40/1.45, I invest anything from 10k up to 500k because I know that at some point I will see a return, however You never say how much you make or lose shorting a share, I know on average between 60 & 70 percent of investors lose money so I think it is safe to say that you do, I on the other hand would never invest in a company where I thought I would lose money & apart from two that went bust I don't, because I never have to sell a share ,because I can see the long term potential in all companies I buy, Anyone can start a staff supply company, an estate agents, Insurance company or bank for that, care homes, haulage company, internet company, virtually straight away, but you don't start a large house building company that can build volume houses at a competitive price straightaway, It takes a life time, IMEO allowing Bdev to take over RDW will prove to big a big thorn in Labours plans, IMEO private house builders have never been in a better place for future growth.

[spawny100] 10/11/2024 16:17

The autumn season and runup to Christmas is always a slow season for housing transactions isn't it? And spring is when people start seriously looking.

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2024 15:56

Jugears,

"come the spring buying season we will see the housing market pick up momentum"

It's spring buying season now, is it? Whatever happened to investors will buy in Sept or after school holidays are over or budget or US election.
Whatever happend to investors will return after school holidays are finished????
lol

As per the assertions, those who are currently short are making money, those who just hold on, aren't.

Short, trading hyped sectors then short... exactly as expected.
;-)

[kreature] 10/11/2024 00:34

Becky 7 Nov '24 - 18:46 - 19503 of 19544
0 1 1
Halifax's monthly house price index found that the cost of the average home hit £293,999 in October, the highest ever recorded, outstripping the £293,507 reached in June 2022.
———;—

Awful news if true as less people will be able to afford them at the higher prices, which means transaction numbers fall. Ie less houses get sold

[sikhthetech] 09/11/2024 17:25

Positive newsflow largely factored into HBs.

GE, new govn 4 months ago, so known
2 interest rate cuts, so interest rate cuts known, trend factored in.

PSN/TW/VTY TU, so TU from Hbs known

US Election, Trump wins, so US Election known.

Cash declining, sales falling - now known.


Crucially, the new UK Govn and US President will be in power for next 4+ years

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/11/2024 19:45

2023 PBT 473M
2024 PBT 416M (-12%) est

Dividend Policy to return 7.5% of net assets per annum or at least GBP250M annually throughout the cycle..

Here for the dividends, only year 2, but like most expect to hold long term, at least a decade and looking to double down soon as it comes back into my buying zone again, possibly helped by the impact from PSN comment 06.11.2024 around cost inflation and the NICS raid by Robber Reeves..

Best buy was 110 pence Oct 2023 so far, could it revisit the 100 pence Covid lows, unlikely but anything is possible with investors giving the Labour pro growth budget the middle finger this week, I can see the FTSE going to 8,000 and under, plenty of opportunities for income out there now, but what we seek is reliable, sustainable dividends in secure hands at a company that will still be around in 10/20/30 years, not chasing pipe dreams and false promises..

[spudders] 08/11/2024 19:11

DVD, I’m a lth, no intention of selling & I’ll reinvest divi here 👍🏻

[beckers2008] 08/11/2024 16:32

DvD,

Follows 'British Bulls' advice, lol!

No wonder you do not know the difference between support and resistance, lol!

Evidently you didn't when you went short at £1.335, lol, just lol!

[uhound] 08/11/2024 16:09

I'd like to know how Jugears values a company.

[cupra kid] 08/11/2024 15:55

British bulls...........! lol I thought people stopped using that as an effective tool years ago.

[danvandan] 08/11/2024 15:41

That one-year chart looks grim. I wonder if 130p will hold for even a day.

[danvandan] 08/11/2024 15:37

spudders, pigsear agrees with Morningstar! Maybe you should buy. Or are you saying that you WON'T buy but you think other poor fools should?

Btw, British Bulls says stay short:

[jugears] 08/11/2024 15:33

ess thats better than many companies poor old tly struggles with a 2.5% & the rest of the construction industry only manages 5% at the very top.
spud, very cheap! Then you get acado that has made another loss of £400 million & the share price is a mind blowing £3.40 ish Am I right in thinking they have only made a profit once in 25 years? it beggars belief lol, I am more than sure that when the market settles these will be back up again, its an irony that if TW had announced a loss these would probably be worth £3 now such is the mentality of the markets! nice to see a lot of other shares have fallen greater than the hb sector.
Sikh what are you going to spend you dividend on? I might by TLY with made, joking apart I probably could by the company!

[spudders] 08/11/2024 15:25

Morningstar say TW. shares are cheap!

[danvandan] 08/11/2024 15:10

icarus, we are not concerned with pigsear's investment and whether he buys or sells. The investment community is somewhat wider than one self-obsessed barely-literate pr@tt on advfn, and it's the market view of TW that matters.

Part of the crossover sentiment from Vistry today is the too-good-to-be-true aspect. Vistry told everyone how well it was doing earlier this year and the market bought it. Now the market realises that house-building is not going as well as claimed. TW is also issuing feelgood updates and the market is taking a more sanguine look at this business's numbers in black and white. They do not make good reading. Cash is being whittled away and the recovery in sales is tepid. Costs continue to rise. Sale prices remain largely static. Fair value for this share, given that profits are even worse than 2023, is probably somewhere around the share price in mid-2023, which is £1.

Both pigsear and berk2008 have pointed out that the shares have been much lower than this recently. berk2008's buying price is allegedly 86p. pigsear, speaking from the door of his garden shed, cites something even lower than that. Winter is coming.

[essentialinvestor] 08/11/2024 15:08

Getting near my buy zone, might be available next week with a bit of luck.


There's a fascination with house prices on this board and although not mutually exclusive, TW prospects are a different discussion.

Margin and volume drive the P&L.

The 30% margins are not coming back, these were an abberation. Even in previous cycle tops, sector margins peaked nearer 20%.

[cupra kid] 08/11/2024 14:52

Good companies will manage extra costs extremely well using various methods. Streamlining is all part of the game.