Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[bones] 08/1/2024 07:20

It’s also still a huge growth stock, “however you dress it up”. The judgement you make as an investor is how much has the market already discounted the possibilities of further disappointments.

Falling short on £300k by a month is not a disaster by any means (but still a careless look).

They talk of a further expected contract win in H1 as well. I’ve no reason to expect gross margins to be any less than expected. These customers want the product which is still unsurpassed by the limited competition.

[fft] 08/1/2024 07:19

Explains why DB would not issue any production update before the open issue early December. In fact, he was quite aggressive about not giving out the numbers for Oct/Nov despite having given the Oct number in order to help getting the placing away. He needs to go.

[bones698] 08/1/2024 07:16

The ly missed their own 8.6m already doesn't exactly instill confidence plus the past problems . Who knows what new issues might arise . Sorry guys but your definitely looking through rose tinted specs . That's the problem with people who already hold shares they are biased beyond belief . You only have to look at pretty much any share to see that as holders don't like hearing they have called it wrong.

No doubt yourself and others were calling this higher when it was 40p plus yet here it is at 10p

[pinkfoot2] 08/1/2024 07:13

How can you say they will miss 24 numbers on the 8 January?

[bones698] 08/1/2024 07:12

Well not long to find out but think there are some rose tinted specs here . The revenue miss again is not great and I have seen shares get hammered with that elsewhere

[bagpuss67] 08/1/2024 07:12

They say "potential" single points of failure (which they intend to try to prevent going forward)

[pinkfoot2] 08/1/2024 07:10

It’s a positive from me-bullish statement and in the real world the variable in the numbers is within tolerance

[bones698] 08/1/2024 07:05

Still not remedied the point of failure issues yet either . I did say it was 50/50 good or bad . It seems they have missed again .
Bagpuss let's see what the market thinks . I reckon it will be red with the revenue miss . Agl had a similar miss and they got slaughtered last 2 times .

I'm also concerned they will miss the 2024 target now but it's early days . The production issues still not resolved is a concern

[bagpuss67] 08/1/2024 07:03

I read it positively. The issues are behind them and it's growth from here.

[bones698] 08/1/2024 07:03

And there it is missed revenue . They can dress it up how they like but it's another target missed and will go down . That's pretty poor considering they already reduced the revenue target and set the number themselves

[bones] 06/1/2024 21:22

I’m not arguing with the veracity of your points bones698. As you say, risk/reward here is far better now at 11p (albeit increased shares in issue) with cash in the bank, than it was before.

The next update is vital in setting the tone going forward.

[bones698] 06/1/2024 20:38

As pointed out sales for Nov and Dec have to be around 1.15m each to hit the 8.6m they have targeted m given production issues and Xmas break I think it will he close . That said I'm happy to just be cautious ATM until a few things clear up like production issues .
Longer term should be promising if these issues are dealt with effectively .
I think they are well funded now to traverse any bumps along the way ,it was one of my concerns and why I haven't bought in prior . At the end of the day timing is everything in this game and getting in at the lows makes all the difference . We might not be quite at the bottom yet if they miss the revenue target but either way it's not far off either

No offence other bones I've listened to plenty of people over the years who have said good things are coming over and over only to see the share price crash . A bit like what's happened here over the last Few years so I tend not to listen and form my own opinion . It's a very common phenomenon tbh at the end of the day most aim shares lose investors money like 90% so spotting he few gems is very hard to do

[damayhill] 06/1/2024 14:54

Great points bones. Nonetheless, I suspect it will be close. The danger with missing it is that cash looks borderline over the next couple of years without a further raise, and assumes the significant ramp up, so I think any drop in share price would relate to fears of a possible further dilution in 18-24 months. Conversely, keeping on track with guidance, albeit downgraded, increases the likelihood of further capital expansion being funded by free cashflow. It's not quite 'knife edge' but it's not far off. 2024 is so critical in that equation and first barometer of 2024 comes with final quarter out-turn for 2023.

[bones] 06/1/2024 13:29

I said “detailed audit over the business plans”. You think they wouldn’t look at those in detail before agreeing to lend £13M?

[toffeeman] 06/1/2024 13:19

That third party lender will not have run a detailed audit.

[bones] 06/1/2024 13:08

I would be surprised if the next update contains a failure to meet the last downgraded sales estimate. Remember, this estimate was a reduction from c.£13M to £8.6M in one fell swoop. This reeked of the new COO/CFO coming in, turning over all the old furniture and ticking off the kitchen sink checklist of “what could possibly go wrong next?”

They will know the previous estimating and messaging to the market had been ludicrously optimistic and naive and will have vowed to take the medicine now and reset expectations. That last part was certainly delivered to the market in a painful blow!

What might have been intended is for these low expectations to be exceeded next time. That would be a pleasant change.

Finally, I take comfort that a third party lender with credibility in the local area will have run a detailed audit over the business plans before committing to a £13M capital loan. I doubt the CFO wants to start off with another financial disappointment after this major reset of expectations.

[bones698] 06/1/2024 10:34

Given the production issues the chances of a revenue miss I would say are 50/50 which would see the share price drop to around 8p even if it's only a slight revenue miss . Totally agree long term this makes little difference though but the markets won't like it if it happens . Once that's out the way production issue needs clearing up
I'll wait to see the update before I purchase here as I think they will struggle to hit their target given the Xmas period and issues so can smell a chance to get in lower . Wether I'm right or not we will see but either way longer term I'll be buying in soon . Watched these long enough and they are approaching the tipping point albeit with some poor management decisions causing shareholder destruction .
Ramping up production and getting to breakeven will be big milestones . 2024 should be a better year for many shares as a lot have charts like sce last year

[privileged] 05/1/2024 14:30

Really hoping upside >> downside at these levels. Margin in the 60-70s on the product also. A perfectly executed plan realising all the supposed demand this could multi bag several times over. But we know there will be bumps in the road (no pun intended). I want to try and get to a 1mil share holding

[damayhill] 05/1/2024 13:41

Fair play bagpuss. I personally don't see a re-rating in this quarter unless there is a very serious new contract announcement - and even then concerns about ability to deliver at scale would remain. January TU will tell us whether the upward trajectory continued in Nov/Dec and I could see a modest uplift to share price if the news is solid. April TU will be similar and could offer encouragement but still with a healthy dose of circumspection. If there's to be a re-rate this year, I would see it being H2 after interims (if good) and a further contract announcement or two in H2.

[bagpuss67] 05/1/2024 09:24

Done.. My money is on them getting things sorted financially and operationally and us experiencing a major rerating in this quarter. Will probably keep adding at this level..

[bagpuss67] 04/1/2024 21:17

Fair enough. Well I depleted my account for a further 100k shares today and will do the same tomorrow :)

[supernumerary] 04/1/2024 21:11

Bagpuss - all very well maintaining your percentage ownership, but it's of a hugely devalued asset, don't forget :¬( Your percentage ownership wasn’t diluted, but I bet your bank account was...

cyber - delay will not be looked on kindly by the market either.

[swiss paul] 04/1/2024 19:49

I will be very very interested in the wording of what is announced

[cyberbub] 04/1/2024 18:50

I would think the company would be more likely to delay until late Jan say, if that allows them to be able to confirm that the technical problems have all (or the large majority) now been corrected? That's ultimately what shareholders want to see - not whether they have made 8.6m or 8.3m IMO