Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[spirito] 11/10/2018 15:05

Blue? Surely not!

[fostere] 11/10/2018 14:16

Thanks PPVN. I guess it doesn't quite look like it's concrete then, but clearly it looks promising

[carla1] 11/10/2018 14:10

Goose ..you had your chance... Up we go..x

[ppvn] 11/10/2018 12:06

Hi FosterE,

I took that part from the conf call on 6th Sept- CF toward the end of his blurb said:

...."with those commitment letters to a financial close in parallel with the infrastructure projects authority hopefully moving towards delivering their guarantee in parallel to fill up the balance with the guaranteed component of that, representing the other $1.5 billion."

I took that to mean they can get access to $1.5bn but obviously things could change!

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 12:02

Video Quarterly Update September 2018

[fostere] 11/10/2018 11:58

Hi ppvn,
Just wondering where CF has commented on the IPA guarantee definitely being available. From the RNS 'The Company has received detailed responses from potential lenders which support a commercial debt tranche of approximately US$1.5bn, subject to completion of satisfactory due diligence', but there's no mention of IPA committing to anything. Likewise I listened to the conference call a couple of times and couldn't pick up on anything definitive in there- but maybe you could correct me on that.

Like you I'm fully backing the BOD to secure the $3bn debt and have increased my exposure here as much as funds will allow, as on the development side of things I am thrilled with how things have progressed this year with TORPs, procurement and construction(the only black mark being against the financing progress)!

[ppvn] 11/10/2018 11:42

Hi Mr Oz,

I don't believe it to be unreasonable at all, far from it. AIM is littered with shares that jump up and then eviscerate wealth when those with bigger pockets set their terms. You only need to look at what happened with sirius when stage 1 was funded - so I don't believe it to be unreasonable in any way.

What I believe to be the difference is where we are now in contrast to where sirius was prior to stage 1. CF has said (and I am prepared to take his word on this, some may not) that sirius can access $1.5bn of bank debt, and $1.5bn of IPA guaranteed debt. The $400-600mm shortfall is in my opinion much less important now because to some extent sirius now have the ability to at least put up their case to fill the shortfall, and that's because they have assets, cash, with the additional debt be almost fully funded. For that proportionally smaller element to be sold, sirius no longer need to throw themselves on the mercy of the moneybags - there should be a few people who'd be interested in a stake of that size. Particuarly given that a downturn may be coming.

There are a lot of PIs still in this stock and sentiment plays a huge part - but PIs won't be at the table for stage 2. That's why I think it's just sentiment and temporary gyrations in price.

[mr.oz] 11/10/2018 11:29

PPVN, do you believe the open questions about method of funding that cost overrun is having no impact on ST2 funding?

If it has no impact - why do you think there's a clear ( and in some views unreasonable) impact on sentiment

Cheers

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 11:24

27 September 2018 on RNS Number : 1238C

Chris Fraser, Managing Director and CEO of Sirius, commented:

"The Company continues to work with both the UK Infrastructure Project Authority and the lending banks, and the stage 2 senior debt financing due diligence process is ongoing. Bank commitment letters are expected to be obtained from commercial lenders in the fourth quarter of 2018."

"A number of financing alternatives to fund the increased capital requirement are under active consideration. Financial close of stage 2 financing is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2019."

Video

[bothdavis] 11/10/2018 11:10

Think the market turmoil is having a bigger effect...Brexit, tariffs etc

[ppvn] 11/10/2018 11:07

I don't think stage 2 is priced in either for the good or the bad. At the moment all that's pricing us is our CB funds and that's gyrating us between about 22p and about 40p. Anywhere inbetween is just sentiment on the stock in my opinion.

Obviously sentiment stinks at the moment and I'd guess that's because of the uncertainty unleashed with the cost overrun. Don't think it's anything to do with stage 2 at all at this point.

On the plus side though, I do believe us to be at the bottom of our trading range and whilst I believe us likely to succeed in stage 2, that's something everyone needs to decide for themselves!

[sundial1] 11/10/2018 11:01

Hi ppvn do you think the collapse in share price,Because stage 2 funding being priced in of not

[warrenfingerfood] 11/10/2018 10:43

Johnwise,
Depends on what we are importing, if it was materials to build things and sell to the World all good, if it's Chinese junk for landfill then a bit depressing.

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 09:17

The UK trade deficit widened by GBP 0.7 billion to GBP 1.27 billion in August 2018 from an upwardly revised GBP 0.57 billion in the previous month and compared to market expectations of GBP 1.15 billion gap. It was the largest trade gap since May, as imports rose further than exports.

[jw30] 11/10/2018 09:10

Think the Fed will have to resume QE. The markets are addicted to cheap money. 10 years of near zirp. Chickens coming home to roost.

[ppvn] 11/10/2018 09:03

And never look a gift (davethe) horse in the mouth either!

Certainly got the "open lower" part spot on, now... let's see what sirius have got!

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 08:57

Looks like its going to be another good day for the Market Makers.. Please hurry along the Market makers are waiting for your shares

[davethehorse] 11/10/2018 08:40

Same old adage, don't try to catch the falling knife...

[carla1] 11/10/2018 08:35

Goose you filling your boots like dump ??

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 07:41

27 September 2018 on RNS Number : 1238C

Chris Fraser, Managing Director and CEO of Sirius, commented:

"The Company continues to work with both the UK Infrastructure Project Authority and the lending banks, and the stage 2 senior debt financing due diligence process is ongoing. Bank commitment letters are expected to be obtained from commercial lenders in the fourth quarter of 2018."

"A number of financing alternatives to fund the increased capital requirement are under active consideration. Financial close of stage 2 financing is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2019." End
...............................

It would not surprise me at all if a large potash company was to invest as Gina Rinehart has Sirius polyhalite is superior to the average potash and will be the first choice for farmers world wide the large potash company market share will take a hit, Sirius with such a large reserve and polyhalite only found in tiny amounts elsewhere in the world , "world-class, long-life asset"..

Potash will soon be history: Video..Polyhalite Explained

[johnwise] 11/10/2018 07:20

27 September 2018 on RNS Number : 1238C

Chris Fraser, Managing Director and CEO of Sirius, commented:

"The Company continues to work with both the UK Infrastructure Project Authority and the lending banks, and the stage 2 senior debt financing due diligence process is ongoing. Bank commitment letters are expected to be obtained from commercial lenders in the fourth quarter of 2018."

"A number of financing alternatives to fund the increased capital requirement are under active consideration. Financial close of stage 2 financing is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2019." End
...............................

It would not surprise me at all if a large potash company was to invest as Gina Rinehart has Sirius polyhalite is superior to the average potash and will be the first choice for farmers world wide the large potash company market share will take a hit, Sirius with such a large reserve and polyhalite only found in tiny amounts elsewhere in the world , "world-class, long-life asset"..

Potash will soon be history: Video..Polyhalite Explained

[ppvn] 11/10/2018 00:17

...and just for balance, what did sirius do when the US market dropped 10% at the end of Jan this year...?

D-fens!