Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 23:58

It could go bidless which will be interesting.

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 21:50

It's always a good plan to keep a bit back. I thought actually carla1 came out with some excellent (unintended?) advice yesterday when (s)he had mentioned buying in gradually in tranches. Easy to say but not always easy to do. Opportunity is usually out there when you don't expect it.

Ironically with it being October (q4) we may find a bit more aggressive buying by funds. Never hurts to get a bit of P on the p&l early doors and since we didn't see much buying back last month it could prove too tempting tomorrow - they weren't tempted today. Thought the afternoon run up would go on a bit but obviously it fizzled out. We'll see tomorrow. Knowing my luck recently there will be an RNS that just chucks a spanner in the works or something!

Edit: just seen your second post, no need for any apologies. My input has been entirely wrong of late (though hopefully slightly illuminating) so I can't take any victory laps!

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 21:43

.. and by the way PPVN, I apologise if I have lowered the tone of postings here over the last week or so, especially since you manage to bring a calm, measured and informative approach to the board on all occasions.

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 21:39

I know it may not sound like it, but I have a fairly large core holding in SXX, although unlike some investors that have already gone "all in", that investment is only 5% of cash holdings, so the volatility does not hurt. Others may not be in that position and may find themselves liquidating some of their more liquid high risk stocks (like SXX) to cover their positions elsewhere during this market turbulence.

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 21:34

Duly noted! Well my wallet was certainly in peril today! And in fact most of the last month!

Edit: sorry just saw you asked about tomorrow. Well given today's shenanigans post Europe close I'd say we will open lower, but then money talks so I think a certain someone (or six) will be buying with both hands! We hung around in Jan at lower levels, but there really wasn't the volume to make buying worthwhile - so with any luck it'll be nice and choppy and give a decent crack at them buying some back (so up on high vol hopefully). Lots of hoping at the moment.

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 21:33

PPVN - where did I say that BATSEU is the only route? All I can say is ignore the impact on PIs of margin calls precipitated by the wider market at one's peril.

Would you say the share price is going down or up tomorrow?

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 21:26

Why would spreadbetting firms choose to only route through one exchange? Sorry, but best execution these days would dictate the trade goes wherever the best pricing is to be found - I've had some of my trades go through NEX before when they've been better than the lit exchanges.

Put it this way - prior to last month's debacle it was pretty easy to keep track of our CB funds and tally with shorts ahead of time. They've got 6.5% of our shares out short so think I'll take their lead personally!

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 20:50

Ultra Defensive it may be but the broader conditions may affect margin levels. That and the spread of some PIs investments to stocks that are under pressure, may mean that they have margin calls that affect their leveraged investments in SXX. Do not underestimate the level of participation of spread betters - spread betting firms often hedge the risks in their books through back to back participation in the cash market. Many of the SXX trades through BATSEU are ATs mechanising this process.

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 19:43

Why I'm in sirius. Ultra defensive, (assuming stg2 success) - they are building a mine.

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 19:28

Hi Sundial1,

I may be the incorrect person to be asking! I'm still very bullish sirius and whilst I think they are making an absolute hash up of things at the moment we still should be bouncing from either here or very near here. Loads of shorts out on the stock (its currently cheaper for them to buy back shares in the market at this price than convert their bonds) and unless something catastrophic with stage 2 happens we should be happy again soonish.

Only my view - will they or won't they! The $3.6bn question!

[sundial1] 10/10/2018 18:48

hi PPVN what do you think price will go down to of a 6 months window at the worst post stage 1

[dp1umb] 10/10/2018 17:48

What back to 50p ( which they were 2 years ago nearly to the day)

[johnwise] 10/10/2018 16:55

You will just have to wait until the Market Makers decide to manipulate the stock in a different direction

[mr.oz] 10/10/2018 16:52

DB. Good post. Cart and horse.

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 16:37

UT = 24.12 down 1.32 = down 5.2% (as expected) - sub 23p tomorrow?

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 16:34

They bought at 25p so they will be net buyers here, or at the minimum neutral.

Obviously they weren't tempted to take us back up today. Wonder if that's because our helmsmen gave a 6 month window for finalization of stage 2...

[danny baker] 10/10/2018 16:30

Bondholders may not convert but they can still hedge their position by selling short. Trading volumes in SXX have been steadily increasing over the last two weeks with over 30,000,000 likely to be traded today. 24p will probably hold tonight but there seems to be relentless downward pressure on the shares. It feels like we might be close to some statement from the company regarding its financing strategy ahead of the Stage 2 discussions.

[ppvn] 10/10/2018 16:20

No bondholders would convert at this price unless they are absolutely mad and don't like making money!

Making 8.5% whilst paying 25bp on their hedge that's also in the money. Wouldn't be a great trade to call it a day, would it?

[johnwise] 10/10/2018 16:19

Volume

Buy 16,755,898

Sell 14,090,898

[11_percent] 10/10/2018 16:03

CB holders cashing in.......before we really tank......

[not my real name] 10/10/2018 16:02

eurofox,

The conversion price was set 2 years ago. 25p exactly. It hasn't changed and will not change in the future. That was the contract!

NMRN

[eurofox] 10/10/2018 15:48

there have been a number of 670,000 trades today suggesting CB conversions may be underway in this price range.

[not my real name] 10/10/2018 14:47

Lol. Deal!

NMRN