Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 15/9/2018 20:37

Hi Eurofox,

Have taken a look at the LSE page for those products and I have to say it's an asset class I wasn't even aware of. Shame on me! Was thinking more along the lines of termed bond deposits.

Think with any luck there should be some better opportunities for yields more appropriate to the risk for retail investors at some point. Only my opinion but if you can get nearly the same return from a guaranteed lender why invest in bonds that carry such risk? For this project for example I'd assume hypothetically for the bonds you've described to sit below bank debt, IPA guaranteed debt, as well as Gina, so if for any reason at all the mine isn't built you'd be zeroed, just like a shareholder. Why not just buy shares? They should get significantly more than 6% if the mine is anything but a failure?

Edit: I'm not saying buy more shares by the way, everyone can do as they please. I'm just genuinely wondering what the upside to an investor would be in this scenario. Dilution resulting in only a 6% return over the next 5 years here isn't even a possibility imo, far more likely possibility would be catastrophic failure, though I obviously hope that unlikely too?

[11_percent] 15/9/2018 20:36

XEL re-run you recon??????

[carla1] 15/9/2018 20:20

Goose.. have another cheeky one and try English x

[11_percent] 15/9/2018 20:03

Does anyone know ? If the product is so good, why haven't ICL ramped up production from its nearby mine - isn't it similar product ?
=========

1234G,

They use the product (Poly4) from ICLs Bouldy mine.
Its the same stuff.


ICL an ramp up production of Poly4, the seam in their mine is not very thick, compared the SXX mine locate on. I think there are other reasons.

[eurofox] 15/9/2018 18:17

Like carla, I suspect many of us reduced our holdings to have cash on hand for bonds or a rights issue. I'd treble my holding for a decently placed issue.

[eurofox] 15/9/2018 18:12

(I.e. basically become a bank) - no they would not. I am an investor with a diverse portfolio of corporate and charity bonds (far bigger than all my equity investments), and the whole point of the LSE Retail Order Book for bonds is that the process is fairly quick, not expensive and very straightforward. Of course there are standards but SXX would be easily capable of handling them. I would go for 6-7% and there are other examples that over the last 10 years have been just as risky.

[ppvn] 15/9/2018 18:00

Hi Eurofox,

In order to issue a retail bond they'd need to jump through various hoops and surpass many hurdles (I.e. basically become a bank). Not sure they'd be too keen. Also a 6% coupon for the risk involved would imo be woefully small. Last time I checked you can achieve that sort of return or near enough in some of the more EM lenders, think the best I saw a few years back was via SBI.

[11_percent] 15/9/2018 18:00

Euro,

It would need to be more than 6% because of the risk here......but yes a retail bond would be attractive, to me at least.

[eurofox] 15/9/2018 17:32

I would like them to launch a retail bond with, say, a 6% coupon and 10 year maturity. Raising a few 100 million should be easy - the fixed income market is desperate for something like this.

[carla1] 15/9/2018 17:28

Hold onto your penny coins for the moment.. currently have a reduced holding.. take advantage of any placing....but but if funding announced this will double instantly and your have missed out.... Goose knows best NOT x

[ppvn] 15/9/2018 17:27

Lol. So far off the mark it's actually rather entertaining. At least calculate the raise amount before bandying about figures.

Joking aside, and this assumes partner investment, CBs etc are not forthcoming, I'm not so sure that rights would be used anyway. For the amount sirius need it'd be an expensive exercise fee wise and probably not the best way forward from a shareholder perspective. Only imo and obviously all options still very much open. I'd just be surprised.

[dp1umb] 15/9/2018 14:37

I can see shareholders have got one last chance to hold any stake in this company and it will IMHO a rights issue maybe 3:1 in the region of 22p

Any thoughts John or Carla seeing as your advice and predictions have been so precise??

[cflather2000] 15/9/2018 13:40

She seems to have got an amazing deal out of sxx

[clotted cream] 15/9/2018 10:24

Two Friday RNSs, two weeks running.
First had to come out a day early due to leaky house brokers?

[beeezzz] 14/9/2018 22:00

Mine with 100 year lifespan....everybody wants their slice of the pie....what is the payout over 100 years. ffs....

[mr.oz] 14/9/2018 21:20

Enjoyed that cc.

Good work here today

[dp1umb] 14/9/2018 21:17

Clotted cream you beat me to the poker analogy business especially deal making is absolutely like poker the problem with us our cards are heads up!

[dp1umb] 14/9/2018 20:41

Couldn’t agree more JW as I have said all along the mine will get built but the risk to ordinary shareholders has increased immensely in the past couple of weeks with Gina and the stage 2 financiers in the driving seat.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 17:53

Hi stoadty1. Yes Gina is quite certain she is going to win whatever the outcome.
With stage 2 she will get more than $100 million for 50 years. Without stage she will get the mine currently with a market cap of $1.6 billion.
Don’t see any risk here for her. Can’t find a sweeter deal than this.
No wonder she is a billionaire!

[excellance] 14/9/2018 16:56

Good points.

The earlier news was dreadful, and appears to have put the cat 😻 amongst the pigeons 🐦 🐦 causing that severe route down to 25p and significant doubts about finance.

Today's news shows that the project isn't actually dead, just battered, so expectations are now positive again, but not as positive as before...

[davethehorse] 14/9/2018 16:32

Good to see a strong close