Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[1234gold] 14/9/2018 15:54

One other thing intrigues me about this story...the product itself.
I'm relatively new to the BB's so these questions have probably been asked before. Where has the company obtained its samples for the agronomy trials from ? Does anyone know ? If the product is so good, why haven't ICL ramped up production from its nearby mine - isn't it similar product ? I've got no reason to doubt the quality of the SXX product, but the pricing expectations are based on volumes that are so huge compared to existing sales surely there has to be a pricing response based on the economic theory of supply & demand.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 15:38

CF has already preempted the first scenario as Gina now has first refusal should st 2 falls through.
Banks will only lend if they are confident the project will be delivered successfully and there is sufficient demand for Poly4 from year 1 onwards to generate the necessary cash flow.
We know that they want a senior partner involved to help with project delivery. The demand for Poly4 is unknown as the TorP do not specify a minimum quantity. Sure the banks are privy to the commercially sensitive information regarding the minimum quantity if there is one but don’t think they are impressed by it.
Interesting times ahead.

[stoaty1] 14/9/2018 15:25

jw30, you should consider the new thread, there will be a lot more support for your views!

[stoaty1] 14/9/2018 15:23

jw30, what rot. No one is going to supply £1/4 without being pretty certain, and somebody with the reputation and acumen of Australia's wealthiest women even less so She knows the mining business better than most..
You must be either a/ very short(on Sirius) or b/ A bit silly.
It is not without risk of course, but this course of action has undoubtedly made this project even more likely ,and certainly a safer bet.

[11_percent] 14/9/2018 15:04

I would go for the second...but don't know.

[excellance] 14/9/2018 14:20

Do you think the banker wants to foreclose and take this for his mates or do you think they will be content to just such it dry for decades keeping it totally dependent on more loans...

[excellance] 14/9/2018 14:04

If you can't afford the payments buy a smaller house.

[ppvn] 14/9/2018 13:42

You are probably right. Better call strabag and tell them to shelve the plan.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 13:36

Ppvn,nothing in the bag yet. They have just kicked the can down the road. Judging by today’s rns I reckon the company will have decelerate the capex spend to see them through to Q2 19. This will result in further delay to the project completion which will mean further cost revision. A vicious cycle has just started.

[ppvn] 14/9/2018 13:09

Jw30,

I do indeed know that saying. Could I therefore add "and if you owe the bank $1.5bn they are probably fairly confident in your plan..."

[johnwise] 14/9/2018 13:03

Bessy ready to bore thanks Sirius Minerals' mine near Whitby

[thanksamillion] 14/9/2018 13:02

Maybee.....the S2 financiers have been trying to overplay their hand. This early intervention by Gina will have calmed them down a little and will in the end support Ginas investment from a potential type of dilution.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 12:59

Ppvn, remember the saying,’if you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $1 million then it’s the bank’s problem.’ So, stage 2 will not be a walk in the park.

[11_percent] 14/9/2018 12:46

Yes,

# We will run out of cash in 6 months....and all work will stop.

# Our new "equity partner" who will supply the Stg2 finance has CF over a barrel.

[eurofox] 14/9/2018 12:44

Ialwayswinatmonopoly14 - Agreed

[2theduke] 14/9/2018 12:35

Well I think CF clearly stating "partner" in the rns was really interesting.
If you take his investor call at face value he said, as i recall:
1) they'll find a partner to assist given the construction set back
2) they raise money from this partner or a junior funder and
3)they'll raise some equity.
The combination addressing the rns key issues.
So I await the terms of these remaining funding requirements.

[ppvn] 14/9/2018 12:16

She's investing $250m in Sirius in return for a royalty. Her $300m pledge was, I would wager, the pivotal point for them to begin financing this massive project. She's taking on a huge risk. Her investment will be subordinate to stage 2 creditors. So I'd guess there will be nothing left for her in all likelihood.

Don't you think it appropriate she should be in the queue for assets? Basically if stage 2 fails or the mine build cost spirals out of all control she's chucked $250m down the toilet. I'm not sure I'd count that as a win.

Be realistic about the confidence of the backers of this project.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 12:07

Hahaha, ppvn. She doesn’t need to do that. Just saying she will win either way.

[ppvn] 14/9/2018 11:45

Yawn. Yeah pretty sure Gina plans to scupper stage 2 and eke some kind of return on her $250m for an unprogressing hole in the ground.

[jw30] 14/9/2018 11:27

So the mine has a new owner now. If st2 falls through she can probably flog it off for $500 million?

[excellance] 14/9/2018 11:11

Doesn't today's rns answer some questions?

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/9/2018 10:48

Stoat - Its cos J-wise is dim and boring

[datait] 14/9/2018 10:38

market makers moving uppppppppppppppppaaaaaaaaaaaa