Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[pander45] 19/11/2024 18:24:28

Looks like decent inflation figures coming.

[davius] 19/11/2024 17:16:33

eyeQ: this housebuilder stock is cheap

Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Now it’s spotted an appealing valuation in a popular sector.

19th November 2024 11:19

by Huw Roberts
from eyeQ

Persimmon
Macro Relevance: 66%
Model Value: 1,482.48p
Fair Value Gap: -17.7% discount to model value

Yesterday’s weekly Top 10 post highlighted Taylor Wimpey, which screens as cheap to the broad macro environment. But with eyeQ model value moving lower, our smart machine has yet to fire a bullish signal despite appealing valuations.

Persimmon also screens as cheap – it sits nearly 18% below eyeQ model value. And, with PSN, model value has stopped falling and has now bounced in recent days.

Model value has risen from a local low of 1,440p at the end of last week to 1,482p today. eyeQ’s sister company Qi is used by professional fund managers and, for them, that three-day bounce in macro conditions is sufficient for them to consider taking action and buying the dip.

Time-poor retail investors who monitor markets less closely, may want to wait a little longer to see if this improvement in the macro environment continues.

But the basic point holds. After nearly two months when macro conditions were deteriorating, things may be changing.

Perhaps the wait for the Budget is finally over. Maybe, even with money markets discounting less rate cuts from the Bank of England, the uncertainty around the UK’s fiscal outlook has cleared and the homebuilders’ sector can move on to focus on new stories, including possibly a green light for more building projects.

[beckers2008] 19/11/2024 16:10:16

Are we in for a blue day!

[sikhthetech] 19/11/2024 14:10:41

CRST update tomorrow

[pander45] 18/11/2024 18:05:26

From hells heart I stab at thee, for hates sake I spit my last breath at thee

[ricardo montalban] 18/11/2024 08:22:50

This has to be a banging short along with all the other builders, borrowing costs at an inflection point and now rising everywhere, bond yields flying, U.K. recession baked in and rising unemployment, it writes itself. U.K. was fukt anyway post 2016 but Labour high tax zero growth plan total suicide and with Trump’ USA first U.K. is even more doomed, terminal.

[beckers2008] 13/11/2024 11:28:11

Sikhthetech,

It is a simple question, even for a simpleton like you, lol!

Are you suggesting that I bought shares in PSN?

[beckers2008] 12/11/2024 15:30:57

Sikhthetech,

Are you suggesting that I bought shares in PSN?

[sikhthetech] 12/11/2024 15:12:51

The HBs share price continue to fall, as expected. I hope nobody was tempted in to buy by Becky and Jugears.




View from expert - company which actually works within the housing market!!


As expected, the long term effects on house price growth due to interest rates staying higher for longer and the huge tax rises in the budget. Labour is in power for 4+ years!!. As I and others have said, The budget was bad for HBs.



Leading UK estate agent cuts its longer-term house price growth forecast
Hamptons says ‘modest’ rises can be expected amid ‘dampening effect’ of higher interest rates overall


Expectations that UK interest rates may stay higher for longer, as well as revenue-raising measures in the budget, have prompted a leading estate agent to cut its forecast for house price growth over the longer term.

The revised forecast from Hamptons came days after Halifax and Nationwide banks said the annual rate of property price growth had slowed, with the former saying it was likely to be “modest … for the rest of this year and into next”.


However, it has downgraded its forecast for 2026 from 5% to 3.5%, which it said “reflects the dampening effect of higher interest rates alongside a fairly lacklustre and higher tax economy, which, while set to improve, remains weak on a historical basis”.

Beyond that, Hamptons said that “the new era of interest rates, likely to remain above 3%,” was expected to temper house price growth.

“The combined effect of persistently higher interest rates and sluggish economic growth is likely to dampen long-term house price performance compared to previous cycles,” said Aneisha Beveridge, the head of research at the estate agent.

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 12:40:59

Sikhthetech,

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 12:15:02

There you go...
as predicted, budget inflationary, so rates will stay higher for longer


"Interest rates could take longer to fall after the Bank of England forecast that inflation will creep higher again, fuelled in part by the Budget.

It predicted that while Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s plans will initially boost economic growth and cut the unemployment rate, measures such as raising the cap on bus fares and VAT on private school fees will lift inflation.

The Bank has just cut interest rates to 4.75%, a decision that was widely predicted, but the change in its outlook for the economy raises questions about the pace of cuts from now on."





sikhthetech - 06 Nov 2024 - 22:13:59 - 5786 of 5790 PERSIMMON PLC
<...>
Tomorrow BoE interest rate meeting.

I expect they will cut 0.25%. However, the crucial part will be their comments on outlook. Especially as a week has gone since Budget and now we have a new US President.

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 10:54:55

Davius,

Brokers are sheep, they tend to follow each other. It's best to read company/sector newsflow and try and see where the market/company is heading.


sikhthetech - 12 Aug 2024 - 11:02:04 - 5667 of 5789 PERSIMMON PLC
<...>

Look at broker's targets around Spring/Summer 2022, around 1700p-2600p, whilst I was saying "I wouldn't buy HBs with a 1200p-1500p target."

What happened?

Brokers:


My own opinions based on my experience and research:

Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons


Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 10:49:44

"Beckers2008 - 02 Sep 2024 - 11:10:39 - 5689 of 5788

Remember my statement...

BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!

I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024 followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.

Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!"

[davius] 07/11/2024 10:26:07

Jefferies cuts Persimmon price target to 1,973 (2,055) pence - 'buy'
RBC cuts Persimmon price target to 1,475 (1,500) pence - 'sector perform'

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 22:13:59

ymaheru,

Tomorrow BoE interest rate meeting.

I expect they will cut 0.25%. However, the crucial part will be their comments on outlook. Especially as a week has gone since Budget and now we have a new US President.


I never liked Labour but I feel many voted for them not having seen them in power before.
GFC happened under their watch. The govns have been in debt crisis ever since. Covid made things worse but there was a dire situation, which was never resolved properly.

Nothing stopping Labour making compulsory purchase of land banks from HBs. Or a windfall tax on HBs.

[ymaheru] 06/11/2024 22:02:29

That could be true, StT.
Plus, Reeves’s spending will be inflationary, so again requiring higher interest rates for longer.

The trading update didn’t seem as dire as the market thought; seemed benign to me, but shows what I know!

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 20:43:53

One crucial point worth noting.

Starmer and Trump are now in power for 4+years.

The budget wasn't good for HBs.
Trump isn't good for UK. His policies will cause inflationary pressures and lead to higher interest rates for longer.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 15:09:24

cupra,

As for know, my opinions have been consistent.
The newsflow has been as predicted.

I 'shorted' then 'traded hyped sector' from Autumn 2022 and then shorted again.

[stevensupertrader] 06/11/2024 15:08:09

PSN Q3 mentioned about cost inflation creeping in . With Trump winning the US President , inflation will shoot up as such share price is tanking down badly today .
Avoid

[cupra kid] 06/11/2024 14:00:20

Put your money where your mouth is then and get shorting. Come back in 12 months and we can all laugh at you.

[ricardo montalban] 06/11/2024 13:35:58

The recession hasn’t even got started yet and these are tanking, chart is horrific, lower highs lower lows, this will see its 2012 low within 18 months, U.K. economy is doomed, especially after the events of the last 10 days. U.K. builders and financials are a banging short. U.K. shares for trading and shorting purposes only, unless you like dividend traps😂ԍ13;

[cupra kid] 06/11/2024 11:36:20

Great topping opportunity and duly obliged.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 11:29:03

Jugears,

The HB newsflow continues to be as predicted.

Taxes have gone up significantly. Houses/investments will always sell regardless of the situation but you miss the point entirely, sales fall and are lower because of affordability.
Huge tax rises for mortgage holders negate falls in interest rates.



"Every single company will be affected by additional costs due to the budget which I am sure will be past on to the consumer Even TLY will be badly effected"

The most impacted are those reliant on huge amounts of labour, like hospitality, housebuilders etc.
Healthcare providers like TLY (reported H1 today) contract direct with NHS bodies. Given the govn need to reduce waiting lists and TLY contract directly with NHS bodies, they should have no problem negotiating higher rates on contracts. After all, if the NHS don't agree then the govn will find it harder to reduce waiting lists.

Unlike HBs where their customers are individuals.

Everyone needs healthcare, not everyone needs a new build home.


"considering current interest rates I think the housing market has held up exceptionally well with out any incentives!"

Really? You clearly haven't read the HBs updates. They clearly suggest incentives increased.

Given your assertion, you obviously bought 450k of TW. at 165p and so are well down.