Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[uu4] 29/8/2023 05:30

JF and DJ just went to 'supermarket' builder and put £100m steaks under their jackets and walked out.But Masonic Disorder protects them. Stole from shareholders assets, Nobody investigates
Deliberate organised Jewish corruption at Oct (Octagonal) and URA/URAH* where shareholders assets and futures were stolen with psychopathic lying and cheating. Nobody investigates.
Failure of political system to build cheap green energy. Nobody investigates
Raising giant illegal taxes breaking all economic rules to rescue assets of tax avoiding landlords who pay nothing back. Nobody investigates
Empowering tax avoiding landlords by political system feeding on assets of people who would have acted on Energy on time. Nobody investigates
Corrupt psychopathic self awarded bonuses by FTSE 100 directors following humiliating Austerity bail out. Nobody investigates
Political support for blatantly corrupt networks of shareholder asset thieves. Nobody investigates
New era of 1930's Germany where media is prevented from investigating by political power and free speech stopped is upon us. Nobody investigates
APPARENTLY Police have to waste citizens assets on small theft. Big theft 'somebody else' has that covered!!
Vladimir would fit in straight away
Tracked theft with psychopathic gang cheating, lying, and invented role playing for small print perversion purposes ; Uranium Resources Plc (URA) to Ananda Developments (ANA.PL) then URA shell to URA Holdings

[uu4] 29/8/2023 05:03

Turning blind eye to massive corruption

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2023 17:00

From the govn website:

CMA to probe 5 areas:


Housebuilding market study
After receiving feedback from key stakeholders in the sector – which included housebuilders of all sizes, campaign groups, councils, and devolved administrations – the CMA will now look at 5 areas in greater detail as the market study progresses:


Estate management charges: Evidence has shown a significant number of new housing estates built over the last 5 years have not been taken on (a process known as adoption) by their local authority – meaning homeowners are required to pay a private management company to maintain amenities such as roads, parks, and street lighting. This has led to concerns about high or uncapped charges for owners and the quality of work carried out in maintaining these amenities.

Land banks: Analysis of the housing market shows the largest builders in the UK hold large swathes of land, and that these land banks have grown in recent years, leading to concerns from some stakeholders this may be limiting competition or slowing build-out rates in some areas.

Planning rules: Concerns expressed by some stakeholders suggest that complex planning rules and uncertainty of decision making were hindering the delivery of new homes – particularly for smaller housebuilders that have less resources to help manage the planning process.

Competition between builders: The market study has found that, at the national level, the housebuilding market does not appear to be particularly concentrated, with a number of large housebuilders competing alongside smaller, regional firms. The CMA is now considering the number of competitors in particular areas and the extent to which small and medium sized housebuilders are able to compete in these local markets.

Barriers for new businesses wanting to build homes: The CMA has heard concerns about barriers facing small and medium-sized builders and the particular issues they face when delivering new homes (for example, access to land).

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2023 15:29

having only recently looked at onerous leases, ground rents etc the CMA are now looking at the house builders again. Plus also rented properties


UK competition watchdog raises concerns over housing market
Some landlords could be breaching consumer protection rules, while CMA is also investigating land held by largest housebuilders.

[beckers2008] 23/8/2023 12:56

Fred Harrison says: 'With elections coming in late 2024 and early 2025 in the UK and USA, for example, governments will jack up the money flow and policies to ensure their trusted supporters continue to vote for
'And those subsidies will convert into increases in land values until 2026, when they will peak.

'House prices will increase by at least 20 per cent before 2026.

[florenceorbis] 23/8/2023 12:20

DUE TO JOIN THE 100 CLUB AGAIN APPARENTLY IN SEPTEMBER

[blue59] 23/8/2023 12:17

The £10 floor is now the £10 ceiling.

[sikhthetech] 21/8/2023 20:53

Fastest drop in asking prices in 5 years.


UK housebuilders’ shares fall amid fastest drop in asking prices in five years
Crest Nicholson forecasts lower profits after number of first-time buyers plunges

[sikhthetech] 21/8/2023 13:22

There you go, end of help to buy impacting HBs, as expected.

Trading getting worse during the summer....
Transaction levels across the industry weakened, particularly in recent weeks.

Says it all really

The newsflow has been as predicted by the bears..
;-)


From Crst update:

Against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and rising interest rates, trading conditions for the housing market have worsened during the summer of this year. While pricing has remained resilient in a market with limited supply and few distressed sellers, the economic uncertainty is deterring prospective home movers.

Transaction levels across the industry have therefore weakened further, particularly in recent weeks.




sikhthetech - 04 Jan 2023 - 19:47:16 - 3913 of 4603
HBs are reporting TU over the next couple of weeks.

That'll give an idea, although still early days, how Help to Buy ending at end of Oct has impacted them... PSN had around 20% completions using the scheme.

The number of cancellations will also be worth watching...

[porsche1945] 21/8/2023 10:23

Look for a low of 5.50 sometime 2024/2025…..will be the 08 through to 2014 U.K. property meltdown period adjusted psmn equiv price low. In fact the US property market fell and then flatlined from 07 through to 2013, so similar time span, the initial fall followed by years of flatlining, no rush to get into these, they will burn through their cash then maybe need to raise. Brexit basket case U.K. in much worse shape now than in 08/2014 period.

[adamb1978] 21/8/2023 09:23

Limited read across from the CRST warning, presumably given PSN's recent TU. Really think now is the time to be buying this sector rather than selling anyway

[wall street trader] 21/8/2023 08:35

There is a Countryside development near me and out of the 150 houses built they have only sold four - they have decided to only dig footing on the second page for now

[blue59] 21/8/2023 08:12

You're utterly confused uu4!!

[uu4] 21/8/2023 06:15

Any news on the masonic disorder doing the correct right godly British thing and getting the stolen ££££trillions back from the tax avoiding landlords AND LETTING the STATE build the green energy infrastructure. This is our time of living and we are not going to be talked down to or watch BBC dissed by corrupt FTSE directors brass necked bullying 'justifying' outrageously corrupt personally awarded bonuses after their industries are COMPLETELY bailed out by tax payers.(JF and DJ @ PSN)
This country is so CORRUPT. QE2 didn't give damn about doing right thing- wheres my property dividend!. Masonic lawyers and accountants don't give damn about doing right thing. Jewish business circles don't give damn about doing right thing ( no we avoid tax too and small print cheat and then lobby power circles to avoid justice or run to the tax havens or Israel, we financial murder too!!!!)(see OCT,URA/URAH)
Tony, Gordon, David, George please admit you cannot build anything because you are too dishonest, YAH but you can promote and join the TAX AVOIDERS!!!! YAH and you can subvert the masonic disorder that you behave in the NATIONAL/WORLD interest....(just happens to be really your own for short term gain)
What a mess (but can be really quickly put right)
Need to close all the tax havens and ancillary sovereign states, seize all the assets of the corrupt business circles and seize 50% of all tax avoiding landlord assets, have returned to corrupt self awarded bonses by corrupt FTSE directors and equivalent across Europe etc, expose all those involved and benefiting from corrupt illegal austerity and which banks and personnel organised this massive tax illegal robbery from tax payers of the state.
To expose the psychopathic element in masonic , Jewish business circles to extent that they are allowed F UP and will then have their mistakes put right by the tax payer and further to this they will pay themselves bonuses and furhter to this they will not be required to pay anything back to tax payers, and frther to this they will already be tax avoiders and further to this they will lobby for all evidence of the corrupt transaction and treatment to be LOST into inpenetrable tax havens, Russia , Israel etc. AND if you complain they will murder you (after bankrupting you).. No wonder all the Gordons and Tonys and Daves and Georges come along saying 'make me a winner, how can i help!!'
To get the history correct. Austerity was corrupt and was done at the worst time for the country and the world. The tax avoiders and tax avoiding landlords tried to cheat the world and were exposed as corrupt, devious and dangerously untrustworthy.
IT WAS THEN ALL PUT RIGHT AND CLEAN CHEAP ENERGY WAS BUILT AT THEIR EXPENSE
Lo, verily etc etc

[adamb1978] 18/8/2023 17:27

Fuji

Impact on the housing market is vastly overblown IMO.

A large chunk of houses are 100% owned. For those with a mortgage, a 80%-90% LTV person 5 years ago is a 50% LTV person today, purely from price rises and even with not paying down a penny. So even doing nothing, they're a better calibre borrower. Then they switch to interest only for the next 2-5 years, and they're probably around flat.

Adam

[tialouise] 18/8/2023 15:51

Perfect time to buy then , when all is doom and gloom........

[fuji99] 18/8/2023 14:22

This sector and retail in general will be struggling this year and possibly next if mortgage rates stay high and some geopolitical issues(Russia/China/Taiwan) start affecting economies (redundancies, people selling quickly if they cannot afford to pay their mortgage anymore etc.). All this will cause house prices drop to attract prospective buyers which is another negative to this sector.

[sikhthetech] 16/8/2023 14:38

ben,

New build flats/properties fell substantially during GFC. Some down 40%.

The reason is because New Build properties command a premium, which can be 20%. When a housing crash happens, like it did during GFC then those same new build properties can easily fall 40%, peak to trough. This is because the premium falls or is reduced substantially as properties become valued on par with 'existing' properties.
Wipe out the 20% premium and add on the general fall of 15-20%, as you quoted, and you get some properties falling 40%, peak to trough.


Those who bought new builds recently, especially using schemes like Help to Buy equity scheme and those who rushed to buy before SD hol ended in Sept 2021, are most at risk of losing around 40% of their home value.

[sikhthetech] 15/8/2023 21:14

Savills backing up the opinion that Landlords selling up
Those selling this year making around £10k less than those who sold last year.
153k properties sold by Landlords in 2021-2!!!


Number of landlords selling up in UK grows as mortgage rates surge
Those who sold buy-to-let this year made £10,500 less than those who did so in 2022, separate data shows


"Estimates showed that 25,000 homes in UK were sold by UK landlords between April and May, compared with 22,000 in the previous two months."

A growing number of landlords have sold up as rates on mortgages surge, according to data that showed tenants facing sharply rising rents amid a squeezed housing market.

Estimates by the estate agent Savills showed that 25,000 homes in UK were sold by landlords between April and May, compared with 22,000 in the previous two months.

The sell-off appears to have gained pace since the the height of the Covid pandemic, as landlords started to feel the pinch of rising costs and interest rates, which made new buy-to-let mortgages – particularly interest-only contracts – more expensive to repay.

Official figures from HM Revenue and Customs – based on capital gains tax data – suggested that landlords sold 153,000 properties in 2021-22, 8.5% more than originally estimated.

Savills said the data pointed to “an increase in buy-to-let landlords selling properties in the past two years, and the potential for properties to be leaving the sector”.

[sikhthetech] 15/8/2023 21:01

Benjones,

"The last 2 housing recessions in the UK have been 2007/08 (2 year downturn, and yes a severe one)."

The downturn has only just started. I think the UK housing recession will be severe and the peak to trough to peak will be some years down the line, def not 2 years.

During GFC, I saw some properties fell 40%, as per my previous comments.
I'm expecting similar this time.


The crucial point is the Help to Buy scheme was introduced in 2013, which helped HBs make hundreds of millions and helped the housing market surge.

The Help to Buy scheme ended Oct last year. So lack of govn schemes to give housing market a boost.

[benjonesinvestments] 15/8/2023 16:06

Porsche, out of interest, where do you get 7 year cycle from?

The last 2 housing recessions in the UK have been 2007/08 (2 year downturn, and yes a severe one). Prior to that there was the housing recession from 1989-92 (more like a 3 year downturn).

I don't see a repeat of 08 but fully expect a recession. Homebuilders tend to do well during recession, simply as a function of lower rates. Homebuilders did well from 1989-92 despite a 20% drop in home prices, just because rates fell from around 14% to 6% and mortgages become more affordable. I would expect a recession this time around to net benefit homebuilders.

The homebuilders were all leveraged in 08 and now have 0 debt. There's no need to raise equity if you have no debt and 20% of your market cap in cash. PSN also have inventory worth their market cap. Even if you take a haircut on the inventory you can see the B/S is extremely safe and not in need of equity financing, even during a period of distress.

From my view, I think people are interested in buying now because the share price has dropped >50% despite the bad news likely impacting 2 years or so of profits. The valuation would only make sense if every year going forward for PSN saw profits at 50% of 2022 (which I think is far too pessimistic). It's just way too cheap vs long term FCF generation.

I can't predict the short term but I have a very high long term conviction, so it is logical to buy now, even if I get chances to buy lower in the short run.

[adamb1978] 14/8/2023 15:14

Any views on share price weakness over the last few days? Possibly some profit taking after 20% uptick from early July, but wondered whether anyone had seen any macro info

Inflation data on Wed (and wage data tomorrow) will hopefully provide another boost to PSN

[sikhthetech] 14/8/2023 15:08

benjones,

"Sure it's possible that over the next year it gets a bit worse before getting better, but I don't see that as an issue for long-term performance. It would just present a better opportunity to buy"

HBs will present an opportunity when all the challenges are factored into the share price but I don't see it at the moment.

Currently, I see HBs as good trading but not a buy.

[porsche1945] 14/8/2023 10:29

Weird people buying into builders one year into a housing market decline, duh. These cycles usually last at least 7 years. Shares don’t go down in a straight line but it’s not far off this time, charts look weirdly similar to 08, all the builders had to raise capital in 08/2014 period ( Taylor wimpey 4 quid to .18p at one point ) if these follow same pattern as back then should see about 5.50 second half of next year, will sit there for years. US and Europe will recover but U.K. different set of issues, just in high speed unmanaged decline, political basket case foreign investors won’t touch, until someone has the balls to reverse brexit there’s zero hope.