Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 07/11/2024 10:54

Davius,

Brokers are sheep, they tend to follow each other. It's best to read company/sector newsflow and try and see where the market/company is heading.


sikhthetech - 12 Aug 2024 - 11:02:04 - 5667 of 5789 PERSIMMON PLC
<...>

Look at broker's targets around Spring/Summer 2022, around 1700p-2600p, whilst I was saying "I wouldn't buy HBs with a 1200p-1500p target."

What happened?

Brokers:


My own opinions based on my experience and research:

Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons


Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!

[beckers2008] 07/11/2024 10:49

"Beckers2008 - 02 Sep 2024 - 11:10:39 - 5689 of 5788

Remember my statement...

BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!

I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024 followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.

Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!"

[davius] 07/11/2024 10:26

Jefferies cuts Persimmon price target to 1,973 (2,055) pence - 'buy'
RBC cuts Persimmon price target to 1,475 (1,500) pence - 'sector perform'

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 22:13

ymaheru,

Tomorrow BoE interest rate meeting.

I expect they will cut 0.25%. However, the crucial part will be their comments on outlook. Especially as a week has gone since Budget and now we have a new US President.


I never liked Labour but I feel many voted for them not having seen them in power before.
GFC happened under their watch. The govns have been in debt crisis ever since. Covid made things worse but there was a dire situation, which was never resolved properly.

Nothing stopping Labour making compulsory purchase of land banks from HBs. Or a windfall tax on HBs.

[ymaheru] 06/11/2024 22:02

That could be true, StT.
Plus, Reeves’s spending will be inflationary, so again requiring higher interest rates for longer.

The trading update didn’t seem as dire as the market thought; seemed benign to me, but shows what I know!

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 20:43

One crucial point worth noting.

Starmer and Trump are now in power for 4+years.

The budget wasn't good for HBs.
Trump isn't good for UK. His policies will cause inflationary pressures and lead to higher interest rates for longer.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 15:09

cupra,

As for know, my opinions have been consistent.
The newsflow has been as predicted.

I 'shorted' then 'traded hyped sector' from Autumn 2022 and then shorted again.

[stevensupertrader] 06/11/2024 15:08

PSN Q3 mentioned about cost inflation creeping in . With Trump winning the US President , inflation will shoot up as such share price is tanking down badly today .
Avoid

[cupra kid] 06/11/2024 14:00

Put your money where your mouth is then and get shorting. Come back in 12 months and we can all laugh at you.

[ricardo montalban] 06/11/2024 13:35

The recession hasn’t even got started yet and these are tanking, chart is horrific, lower highs lower lows, this will see its 2012 low within 18 months, U.K. economy is doomed, especially after the events of the last 10 days. U.K. builders and financials are a banging short. U.K. shares for trading and shorting purposes only, unless you like dividend traps😂ԍ13;

[cupra kid] 06/11/2024 11:36

Great topping opportunity and duly obliged.

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 11:29

Jugears,

The HB newsflow continues to be as predicted.

Taxes have gone up significantly. Houses/investments will always sell regardless of the situation but you miss the point entirely, sales fall and are lower because of affordability.
Huge tax rises for mortgage holders negate falls in interest rates.



"Every single company will be affected by additional costs due to the budget which I am sure will be past on to the consumer Even TLY will be badly effected"

The most impacted are those reliant on huge amounts of labour, like hospitality, housebuilders etc.
Healthcare providers like TLY (reported H1 today) contract direct with NHS bodies. Given the govn need to reduce waiting lists and TLY contract directly with NHS bodies, they should have no problem negotiating higher rates on contracts. After all, if the NHS don't agree then the govn will find it harder to reduce waiting lists.

Unlike HBs where their customers are individuals.

Everyone needs healthcare, not everyone needs a new build home.


"considering current interest rates I think the housing market has held up exceptionally well with out any incentives!"

Really? You clearly haven't read the HBs updates. They clearly suggest incentives increased.

Given your assertion, you obviously bought 450k of TW. at 165p and so are well down.

[jugears] 06/11/2024 11:13

sickly, you keep mentioning affordability but sales are increasing & house prices are expected to rise 25% over the next 5 years in the east midlands alone, Every single company will be affected by additional costs due to the budget which I am sure will be past on to the consumer Even TLY will be badly effected, IMEO one more cut in rates will propel sales hence why I have added more PSN & TW today for my long term fund both very undervalued IMEO, I have said before that many people took on h2b that didn't actually need it, considering current interest rates I think the housing market has held up exceptionally well with out any incentives! now you've mention continuously since 2019 house prices falling 30-40% peak to trough, When exactly is this going to happen?
Where are sales down?? they are building nearly 700 more this year than last?

[sikhthetech] 06/11/2024 11:11

Not sure why some readers think the update was good. I didn't think so.

Sales down, build cost inflation up.

As per my assertion, the budget wasn't good for house builders.

Labour are now in power for the next 4+years!!

HB newsflow continues as predicted.



sikhthetech - 31 Oct 2024 - 16:44:38 - 5763 of 5776
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There is inflationary pressure from measures announced in the budget. Therefore interest rates may have to stay higher for a bit longer

Also, the lack of help for buyers is the problem. Affordability is still a problem.

After GFC, the Tories introduced the Help to Buy scheme. 5 yr interest free loans up to 20%(40% in London).
That jump started the recovery.

HBs made hundreds of millions pounds from the scheme. It closed only couple years ago.

There is no similar scheme atm

[carpingtris] 06/11/2024 11:02

I topped up here today :) brings the average down a bit.

[pander45] 06/11/2024 09:58

Yes, but it's not translating in the same magnitude to others - all in the same situation.

[prokartace] 06/11/2024 09:56

Yes its clear why its down. However I have bought some

[kreature] 06/11/2024 09:47

‘We are seeing some signs of build cost inflation beginning to emerge in price negotiations for 2025 and are working closely with our supply chain to manage our costs, which will also be impacted by new building regulations and the employer national insurance increases announced in the recent Budget.’

Translation….
2025 ‘will…..be impacted’ by ‘build cost inflation’ and ‘new building regulations’, and ‘national insurance increases’

[roguetraderuk] 06/11/2024 08:17

sometimes better to travel than arrive. q3 sales were down on last time but they said they expect increase into the end of the year. also pointing to cost issue creeping in. i think prices increases will outrun any cost increases but thats an unknown for the mkt so all in its a cautious takeaway and they have run up this year. if they manage to finish the day positive however i think it sets up a buy signal. at the moment its below key sup.

[pander45] 06/11/2024 08:13

Update is fine, usual reaction.

[carpingtris] 06/11/2024 08:12

Market not liking something so far..

[ymaheru] 06/11/2024 07:37

Yes, no nasty surprises.

[garycook] 06/11/2024 07:11

Good Trading Update !

[adef1] 02/11/2024 13:01

Higher tax and national insurance leaves less disposable income. I think it was Winston Churchill who said that a country trying to tax its way to prosperity was like a man trying to lift himself off the ground by pulling up on his boot laces

[johnkidd1] 01/11/2024 08:51

Probably should have said expected reaction.The UK still has one of the highest house ownership rates in Europe as opposed to say France where most rent and the state has some control on rents. Maybe a state owned company could compulsory purchase derelict or empty properties, refurb and release for rental. We should make the best use of existing properties before building new homes.