Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[yaesu] 02/5/2023 13:18

Ex-div was 13th April.

[rmc100] 02/5/2023 12:48

When is ex div date

[viscount1] 02/5/2023 11:14

Smelling some burnt shorts this morning.

[bookbroker] 02/5/2023 10:33

Housebuilders sum up the cost of living crisis, it is something made up by the media, even with the increased number of mortgages avaliable, rising home prices are not affected by inflation clearly. With rising rates, demand clearly overrides any suggestion that affordability is beyond most people. House prices are far too high in this country, and then you have to furnish the property give or take freebies by the developers.

[beckers2008] 02/5/2023 10:22

FTSE 100 Rises as HSBC, Builders Gain; BP Falls

0800 GMT - The FTSE 100 rises 0.2%, or 13 points to 7884 as gains for HSBC and construction stocks outpace losses for oil and mining stocks. HSBC advances 4% after first-quarter profit topped expectations. House-builders Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt Developments and Berkeley Group Holdings are also among the biggest risers after upbeat industry data. "The Nationwide U.K. house-price index saw the market rebound 0.5% in April month-on-month, snapping a seven-month streak of falling house prices," Interactive Investor's head of investment Victoria Scholar writes. Meanwhile, BP falls 5% and Shell also loses ground after BP reported better-than-expected 1Q profit, though the oil major slowed its share buyback run rate, RBC Capital Markets says. ([e-mail])

[adamb1978] 02/5/2023 08:38

Very nice bounce. Without wanting to speak too soon, the doom and gloom always felt overdone

[mike24] 02/5/2023 08:15

negative equity looks a long way off
house prices holding up well, as those with freehold and NO type of management clauses
dyor

[adamb1978] 29/4/2023 20:55

I agree karv1. This is a cyclical company and will get back to those sort of levels within a handful of years. I dont see much downside in PSN at these levels.

The narrative will always be negative after this sort of share price fall, however that provides opportunity

[karv1] 29/4/2023 10:37

Anywhere between 1 to 5 years, you could double your money if not more in PSN stock, as I said people once thought the share price was worth 3000+ 2500+ 2000+ 1500+ not long ago in the same time frame in the future we could be back to those numbers. The UK plc has not changed, the company has not changed, same housing shortage with a growing population.

[karv1] 29/4/2023 10:29

In an ordinary world, you may get a drop in between the dividends but if inflation drops like the dreaded BOE predicts and you consider an already priced-in 70% drop from the very highs or 50% drop from the 2600 high. Why would anyone in a million years sell if UK plc starts to improve with inflation coming down and rates would then follow no matter if months or 2 to 5 years? PSN profits will be banked, dividends will grow, share price will go up.

[onehanded] 27/4/2023 12:14

can't see the point of buying ex-div now as div due soon and the fall. Expect to see a small fall in share price as we lead up to date.

[cupra kid] 26/4/2023 16:47

Here comes the sidekick.Do your own research sunshine, if it doesn't fit then don't invest or go short. Your choice.

[sunshine today] 26/4/2023 16:35

Umm, so where does the 8% build inflation fit into the equation.

Year on year.

[cupra kid] 26/4/2023 16:32

Already priced in Sikh hence the rise today. Still a national housing shortage, no recession, reduction in inflation. Things are moving well just not as fast as before.

[sikhthetech] 26/4/2023 14:38

Private reservations are significantly lower.

The important point is Help to Buy has ended.
A scheme which was crucial in helping HBs make millions of pounds and helped the housing market recover from GFC.





"Net private sales per outlet of 0.58 excluding bulk sales (Q1 2022: 0.98)

(2) Excluding completions year to date and as at 26 April 2023 for 2023 figure, as at 27 April 2022 for 2022 figure.

Trading

The Group traded in line with expectations during the first quarter. As previously announced, the forward sales position at 1 January 2023 was GBP1.0bn, down 36% year-on-year as the challenging trading environment in the second half of 2022 resulted in lower sales rates and elevated cancellation rates, particularly in Q4. This reduced forward sales position led to a 42% reduction in Group completions in the first quarter to 1,136 homes (Q1 2022: 1,950 homes). This included 902 private homes (Q1 2022: 1,631 homes) and 234 homes for our housing association partners (Q1 2022: 319 homes)."

[sikhthetech] 26/4/2023 12:27

It's the rate in increase in interest which is the important bit, not the rate itself.

During the 90s, homeowners were used to higher mortgage rates. A rise from 10% to 16% was 'only' 60% increase in interest. Compare that to now where, interest has gone up 200-300%.

Also a lot of mortgages were taken out by 1 person with at 3-4x earnings.
Therefore, for a lot of married couples, there was room for the 2nd person to take on work and bring in extra income.

Now couples are taking out mortgages with joint incomes. There isn't the room to take on more work.

[mike24] 26/4/2023 09:12

worth another quid on top of todays rise
post 4251

in 1990 the mortgage rate at (santander) was a crippling 16%
to day, wealthy foreign buyers holding house prices steady
plus 140000 blt's landlords cashing in, is worth 500ml a wk to economy
giving first time buyers a chance to get on the ladder,
with less risk to lenders

[edmondj] 26/4/2023 09:09

I thought house-builder PE's fell to low single digit multiples in the 1990's downturn, albeit a tough one.

[adamb1978] 26/4/2023 08:05

Reassuring trading update. Market forecasts are for revenue down c.40% this year and PSN's comments about volumes and pricing suggests they might well outperformed this if things continue as in Q1

Trading on a PE of around 13x, so in the 12x-14x range where these cyclicals get to when earnings fall and multiples increase

[pander45] 26/4/2023 08:03

Holding well so far.

[pander45] 25/4/2023 22:42

Painful I would predict.

[warranty] 25/4/2023 16:44

I fear the worst.

[time 2 retire] 25/4/2023 15:42

Trading update tomorrow, how's it going to go?

[wadders5] 13/4/2023 13:15

4.7% not 6%

[garycook] 13/4/2023 12:31

HSBC upgrades housebuilders, says market downturn more than priced in
Thu 13 April 2023 08:11 |

(Sharecast News) - HSBC upgraded its stance on a host of housebuilders on Thursday as it argued that a downturn in the housing market and tepid recovery in return on invested capital are more than priced in to the shares.

The bank upgraded Barratt, Bellway, Crest Nicholson, Persimmon, Redrow and Taylor Wimpey to 'buy' from 'hold'. Their target prices were lifted to 570p from 390p, to 2,700p from 2,030p, to 270p from 230p, to 1,550p from 1,410p, to 670p from 500p, and to 150p from 105p, respectively
HSBC upgraded Berkeley to 'hold' from 'reduce' and the target price to 4,000p from 3,000p. Finally, it reiterated its 'buy' rating on Vistry and hiked the price target to 1,060p from 900p.

"We now have greater visibility about the shape of the current housing market downturn for the housebuilders' profits and cash flows and their recovery from it, which we believe to be more than priced-in to share prices," HSBC said.

HSBC said its preferred picks, with more than 30% implied average upside, out of its seven buy-rated stocks are partnerships play Vistry, Redrow and national volume builder Taylor Wimpey, all of which trade at large discounts.

"Dividend yields are attractive across the sector, averaging 5.4% to 8.1% in 2023-27e, whilst we see material additional surplus capital potential for Redrow and Persimmon, assuming no year-end indebtedness including land creditors," it said.