Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 21/6/2023 12:07

Another HB warns of problems. This time Berkeley.

There you go, demand falls. Homebuyers delaying buying.

A whopping 20% lower sales expected.

So no demand is the highest ever in 40yrs..

The sector newsflow has been as predicted.



Britain's housing market will 'lack urgency' until there is a clearer picture on how high interest rates will go, boss of housebuilder Berkeley warns


"Higher interest rates are triggering demand woes and tough market conditions, Berkeley Group has warned, after unveiling a rise in annual profit."


"The group also said in its results today: 'In this type of market there is a lack of urgency and transactions typically stem from owner occupiers with a current motivation to move or investors with immediately available funds, with demand therefore weighted to product which is closer to delivery, as opposed to off-plan sales that do not complete for two to four years.' "

"As a result, the group warned its current sales rates for the financial year will be 'around 20 per cent' lower than last year. "

[porsche1945] 21/6/2023 10:28

Tanking nicely. Get those in the the money long dated puts bought, will double up over next 9 months. U.K. now terminal.’70’s style.

[beckers2008] 19/6/2023 18:26

Why is the village idiot 'Sikhthetech' copying and pasting articles that we have all seen before.

The classic mug-punter losing 30+% in a day, in it's beloved TLY which is sliding south, lol!

Sikhthetech' opinion is not credible as it's opinion has been proven wrong for 5 years, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 19/6/2023 17:54

The newsflow backs up what I've been saying last year about inflationary pressures, affordability etc ..




sikhthetech - 07 Jul 2022 - 16:22:15 - 2901 of 3086 PERSIMMON PLC
I wouldn't buy any HB at the moment...
Affordability issues still mounting up with energy cap set to rise to around £3000 pa in Oct, inflationary pressures pushing up interest rates.

House prices slowing which happens before a crash..

As with my previous prediction for previous housing crash, I'm expecting house prices to fall around 40%, peak to trough. Not all areas/streets will see the big drops... Asking prices fall the greatest. New builds usually command a premium and that would be reduced significantly during a crash.

Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease...



sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[adamb1978] 19/6/2023 15:23

Hi sdt7618

Given most companies given annual pay adjustments in Q1, realistically a lot of the recent pay rises won't come out of the data til we're into next year.

However if you look at PPI inflation, which is a lead indicator for CPI, its dropped like a stone from over 20% late last year to 3.9% now and will go to somewhere around zero, probably just over, when the latest data comes out on Wed. We also have petrol prices having come down sharply recently, domestic energy prices falling from July 1st and food prices looking to have peaked.

So the non-salary elements should start to become 0 or negative in the coming few months - will be interesting at that point whether the whinging media then reports that pay rise inflation (which will still superficially look high) will be higher than CPI! I bet they won't!

Adam

[sdt7618] 19/6/2023 15:08

Its easy to copy and paste the doom and gloom.....

There is a balancing side to that interest rate story.

UK wages have risen at their fastest rate in 20 years, excluding the pandemic, raising expectations that UK interest rates will have to rise.

Regular pay excluding bonuses increased by 7.2% in the three months to April, although it still lags behind inflation - the rate at which prices rise.

The Bank of England has warned big pay rises are contributing to the UK's still-high rates of inflation.




So all good really more money to cover the bills!!!



Just wish it was that simple eh.....

[sikhthetech] 19/6/2023 14:11

Mortgage rates: Average two-year fix now above 6%

"Rishi Sunak has appeared to rule out any extra support for homeowners.
On Monday, the prime minister told ITV's Good Morning Britain that his priority was to halve inflation by the end of the year."

"On Monday, the average rate for a two-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.01% according to the financial information service Moneyfacts."

"The interest rate for the UK government to borrow money over two years - a key influence on mortgage rates - has been rising sharply, and on Monday it hit 5% for the first time since 2008."


"More than 400,000 people will see their existing fixed deals end between July and September, a comparatively high number. Many face the prospect of having to budget for monthly repayments that are hundreds of pounds more expensive than they have become accustomed to."

[sikhthetech] 15/6/2023 13:09

There you go, another property expert predicts 35% fall, over 3 yr period, peak to trough. ;-)
By 2025!! Taking into account the widespread disruption caused by covid... lol


What's going to happen to house prices? Two property experts go head to head... and one predicts a 35% FALL by 2025
Property values fell 3.4% annually in May, according to Nationwide
We decided to speak with two experts who know the market inside out
One of them thinks house prices will crash by 35%


"On one side you have those arguing prices will see double-digit percentage falls, as higher mortgage rates and inflation combine to decimate people's purchasing power."

"On the other side there are those who say that it is rare for house prices to fall substantially, especially in the UK where home ownership is an important goal for many. "

"They might argue that, while today's high interest rates is a concern, it is not enough to prompt a substantial house price drop like the one seen during the financial crisis, when values plunged by 20 per cent. "


"Lamdin believes the impact of higher interest rates are only just beginning to show in the data. He is predicting that prices will fall 35 per cent over a three year period."

[beckers2008] 14/6/2023 17:41

'Sikhthetech'

Why are you copying and pasting news that we have all seen before.

It's all priced in numb-nuts, lol!

How's your beloved TLY doing, lol!
Your a classic mug-punter losing 30+% in a day, lol!

Sikhthetech' opinion is not credible as it's opinion has been proven wrong for 5 years, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2023 16:56

The Chancellor supports interest rate rises.


UK has no alternative to Bank interest rate rises to calm inflation - Hunt

"While the economy grew by 0.2%, the Office for National Statistics said that housebuilders and estate agents had a "poor month"."


"An increase in interest rates means higher monthly mortgage, credit card and loan payments for some people. But higher rates should benefit savers - if banks pass them on to their customers.

Asked if he was following former chancellor John Major's dictum in 1989 that "if it isn't hurting, it isn't working", Mr Hunt said: "In the end there is no alternative to bringing down inflation, if we want to see consumers spending, if we want to see businesses investing, if we want to see long-term growth and prosperity.""

[m0g] 14/6/2023 16:35

Mpc meeting on 22nd

Interest rates probably go up again

This has far more to go lower IMHO

[wall street trader] 14/6/2023 16:09

we have seen the bottom today am sure - dipped my tow in

[beckers2008] 14/6/2023 12:16

'Sikhthetech' opinion is not credible as it's opinion has been proven wrong for 5 years, lol, just lol!

[tiltonboy] 14/6/2023 11:45

sikh,

It was more in relation to the performance v HB in general. Bellway have bounced well from the lows and are flat over a year. PSN have just been a shocker!

[pander45] 14/6/2023 10:17

Short sighted. What will change is the mortgage market and attitudes towards purchasing. We've had it good for ages with 25 year mortgages, longer mortgages will become the norm, people will always want their own home, they will pay lower for longer to get it and just adapt. The mortgage market will drive this.

[mike24] 14/6/2023 09:29

can't understand why builders were upgraded mon/12
tough times ahead, decent recovery 4/5yrs away
dyor

[adamb1978] 14/6/2023 08:43

The thing about the pay growth data yesterday is that most commentary around it ignores the 9.7% increase in minimum wage in April.

There's probably also a bunch of others who are close to the minimum wage and who's salaries would have been influenced by that large increase.

Need to see what the broader inflation data next week says

[tiltonboy] 14/6/2023 08:03

Any particular reason why this one has materially underperformed over the last year or so. Been a shocker since the new CEO went in

[encarter] 13/6/2023 18:35

End of June.

[gswredland] 13/6/2023 16:44

1000 share price at end of summer?

[beckers2008] 13/6/2023 16:17

Falling UK Unemployment & Rising Wage Growth
08:27, 13th June 2023
(RTTNews) - The surprise decline in the UK unemployment rate and strong growth in average earnings in the three months to April reflect the tightness of the labor market, data from the Office for National Statistics revealed Tuesday.

The jobless rate fell to 3.8 percent in the three months to April from 3.9 percent in the preceding period, while it was forecast to rise to 4.0 percent.

Average earnings including bonuses increased 6.5 percent on a yearly basis, which was much faster than the expected 6.1 percent increase.

Excluding bonus, earnings posted a 7.2 percent annual increase compared to the forecast of 6.9 percent. The ONS said this was the largest growth rate seen outside of the coronavirus pandemic.

In the three months to April, the employment rate rose to 76.0 percent. Employment increased to a record high with increases in both the number of employees as well as self-employed workers.

In May, payroll employment registered a monthly increase of 23,000 to 30.0 million.

The number of vacancies fell 79,000 on the quarter to 1.05 million in March to May. Vacancies decreased for the eleventh consecutive period as economic pressures held back recruitment.

There are rumours that the government will be introducing an even more generous help to buy scheme. Expect a rabbit out of the hat soon!

[porsche1945] 13/6/2023 15:54

You mean that aaxxhole jugears who buys into builders stocks at the start of a 7/8 year property recession and a period of parabolic interest rate rises….haha230;they might not fall 40 but defo 25…..and builders shares will get cut in half again from here. What a bunch of fkin 🤡🤡&#129313;’s.

[beckers2008] 13/6/2023 13:20

The village idiot Sikhthetech is talking BS again, lol!

I remember Jugs ripped it a new one when it was talking house prices falling 40% peak to trough, lol!

When is it going to be correct, lol!

Did house prices crash as the village idiot predicted in...
2018? No
2019? No
2020? No
2021? No
2022? No

Did the village idiot beloved TLY fall over 30% in a single day, oh Yes, lol!

Sikhthetech, the village idiot is not credible, lol, just lol!