Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 02/6/2023 08:12

Beckers2008

Its similar to the general media - doom and gloom stories are much easier to print and get more clicks than a 'everything will probably be ok' story

Adam

[beckers2008] 01/6/2023 15:11

When is the village idiot going to be correct in it's prediction of 40% crash, peak to trough, lol!

It predicted a crash in October 2018, was there one, No!
The share price went against it, burning it's short, lol!

Was there a house price crash in 2019? No
2020? No
2021? No
2022? No

Will there be a house price crash in 2023 on our tiny island with nett immigration up over 600,000 adding to the 504,000 recorded the previous year? No.

The mug-punter 'Sikhthetech' who lost 30+% in a single day is deluded with Zero credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 01/6/2023 15:06

Further turmoil in housing market.
Nationwide says biggest annual fall in house prices for nearly 14years...since GFC.
"Property market experts fear worse to come for buyers and sellers alike" according to this article...



'Storm clouds gathering' for property market amid biggest annual fall in house prices for nearly 14 years
Housing market activity is likely to remain "subdued in the near term" amid expectations of further interest rate rises, according to Nationwide. While other property market experts fear there is worse to come for buyers and sellers alike.

[beckers2008] 01/6/2023 14:55

"The building society said prices in the year to May dropped by 3.4%, the biggest decline since July 2009."

When is the village idiot going to be correct in it's prediction of 40% crash, peak to trough, lol!

It predicted a crash in October 2018, was there one, No!
The share price went against it, burning it's short, lol!

Was there a house price crash in 2019? No
2020? No
2021? No
2022? No

Will there be a house price crash in 2023 on our tiny island with nett immigration up over 600,000 adding to the 504,000 recorded the previous year? No.

The mug-punter 'Sikhthetech' who lost 30+% in a single day is deluded with Zero credibility, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 01/6/2023 14:32

House prices falling at fastest rate for 14 years..according to Nationwide

More headwinds ahead.. Net mortgage approvals down
Lower demand, lower prices, lower sales.

Company/sector newsflow, as expected.


House prices fall at fastest pace in nearly 14 years, says Nationwide

"UK house prices fell at their fastest annual pace for nearly 14 years in May, the Nationwide has said.

The building society said prices in the year to May dropped by 3.4%, the biggest decline since July 2009."


"As a result, the Nationwide said "headwinds to the housing market look set to strengthen in the near term"."

"Net mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 48,700 from 51,500 in March."

"Nationwide noted that interest rates were also projected to remain higher for longer.

"If maintained, this is likely to exert renewed upward pressure on mortgage rates," said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist."


"Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the recent changes in mortgage costs and availability may well have brought confidence in the property market "crashing down".

While she said we would not see a repeat of the turmoil seen in the wake of last year's mini budget, mortgage rates are likely to rise in "the immediate future".

"We can expect this to filter through into less demand, lower sales, and weaker prices."

She added that the latest mortgage lending figures from the Bank of England made "miserable reading".

"It reflects just how property sales have dried up at the start of 2023.""

[cupra kid] 31/5/2023 14:25

Leaves about 5000 mortgage deals available then.

[sikhthetech] 30/5/2023 20:23

Nearly 800 mortgage deals pulled over past few days.


"Nearly 10% of UK mortgage deals have been taken off the market since last week amid concerns about how high interest rates will go, figures show."

[kop202] 26/5/2023 08:13

QED...been around for years...one to watch.. but not invest

[scobak] 25/5/2023 21:12

Now you tell us, just as I was getting into the story.
Who'd be a ship owner?

[kop202] 25/5/2023 12:22

IGNORE WRONG THREAD.....DOE!!

[kop202] 25/5/2023 12:21

You have to laugh.....a part breaking not during the trial but just before the commencement of the trial.......It's on a par with Maersks ship hitting a buoy and ending the LONO trialOh and not forgetting the months of delay stuck in Moroccan customs! Jason should consider writing a book.

[sikhthetech] 24/5/2023 20:40

Homeowners and renters face 'huge' interest rate shock says Barclays chief


UK homeowners and renters are facing a "huge income shock" as rising interest rates hit mortgages and monthly costs, the boss of Barclays has warned.

CS Venkatakrishnan, who is known as Venkat, estimates that payments by mortgage holders and tenants will take a chunk of between 28% and 30% out of their income.


The Barclays boss said that "most people will begin to feel the impact of higher rates when their current deal expires by the end of next year", and predicted "there is a huge income shock" on the way.


Around 85% of all mortgages are fixed-rate, according to the Bank of England.

It said around 1.3 million households are expected to reach the end of their deals this year and face a rise of up to £200 per month, based on current rates.

A typical tracker mortgage customer is now paying about £417 more a month while those on a variable rate have seen their costs rise by £266.

It has prompted expectations of a further increase in borrowing costs when the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets in June.

Andrew Montlake, managing director at mortgage brokers Coreco, said: "While on the face of it we have seen a fall in inflation back down to single figures, it is not by quite as much as expected.

He added: "What is more, the important underlying inflation figure has proved to be stickier than envisaged. This has led to a reaction from the markets as they believe the Bank of England may now continue with their policy of rate rises."

[adamb1978] 24/5/2023 16:30

Food prices will come down sharply though. we have a very competitive supermarket sector so if there's one space where there wont be price gouging, its in food. Even in the last month dairy products have come down a bit as a result.

Energy prices will come off in Q3 and as well as seasonal lower usage of energy, means that consumers will get that break for the next few months too.

I think the net effect of these is that even if the BoE do raise again, and they probably will, there are offsetting improvements to the average consumer P&L to help and that this will mean we avoid a recession this year

[badtime] 24/5/2023 16:12

Inflation being driven by high food prices is not going to be controlled by higher interest rates ..instead those rates are going to drive us into recession imo

[adamb1978] 24/5/2023 15:36

I bought into PSN a few months ago given taht I thought too much doom and gloom was built into the price. Any investment is an assessment of probabilities of upside and downside, rather than a categoric one sided bet.

My view on the housebuilders, and PSN in particular, is that analyst forecasts have built in reductions in finanial performance which are in-line with a pretty bad economic outcome so there is more upside than downside to that. The generate decent ROCE and are in a position to continue with dividends etc even if there is a lull in sales.

I think its a good entry point here to buy, tuck away and forget about

[cupra kid] 24/5/2023 15:06

Have you factored in the above average wage increases that people are getting?

[porsche1945] 24/5/2023 12:47

oh dear, uk core inflation going up not down, far worse than any other G7. Weak sterling ( thank the brexit morons ) sucking in inflation. Rates in uk will need to be 7/8 pc to deal with it, 6 year housing cycle meltdown coming. Enjoy creditjunkies. Just put your cash in T bills or UK treasuries like me….lovely interest, or buy shares and lose half your capital for an at risk 5 pc dividend.

[pottsypotts] 24/5/2023 08:48

I read your posts with interest some would call them pessimistic I maybe would call them realistic/weighted towards the pessimistic sideThat's said isn't there a bit of an unwritten rule the stock market looks 18months in to the futureIf we aren't forecasting a full blown recession I am getting tempted to dip my toe in shortly with house builders, what's your thoughts

[cupra kid] 23/5/2023 18:36

So in essence interest rates have stabilised at their current rate, inflation is and will come down further and there's no recession because of GROWTH.

[sikhthetech] 23/5/2023 14:29

IMF forecasts interest rates will rise further and stay high for longer.
Chancellor may have to raise taxes to fund public spending.
Inflation not expected to return to 2% until 2025, 1.5 to 2 yrs!!


IMF upgrades UK growth prospects but warns interest rates 'likely' to rise further


The UK is already experiencing the sharpest cycle of interest rate increases since the 1980s. The Bank of England has raised Bank Rate by almost 4.5% in the space of 18 months.

The IMF notes that the full force of these hikes won’t be felt until the back half of this year but it sees signs that inflation is feeding itself domestically in the UK and believes the cost of borrowing will have to rise further to contain it.

The IMF’s Article IV mission concludes that inflation is showing “greater than expected persistence” and will only fall to 5% by the end of the year. The IMF thinks it will take until 2025 for the headline rate to ease below 2% (the Bank of England’s target).

“Monetary policy will need to remain tight to keep inflation expectations well-anchored,” says the IMF.

“Some further monetary tightening will likely be needed, and rates may have to remain higher for longer to bring down inflation more assuredly."

[tialouise] 23/5/2023 14:00

Thanks.....

[garycook] 23/5/2023 13:52

Await Half year results Aug 10.