Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[jaf1948] 15/10/2024 14:03

sikhthetech,

Why do you never post on the days PSN goes up ?

[kreature] 07/10/2024 22:46

Dunno bout the Halifax buyers in droves news. My agent says he’s just not seeing it. Tho probably dumping a rental while mortgage affordability is improving. Who on earth wants to bother upgrading to EPC C just to get shafted by whatever tax disincentive they are planning next ?

[ymaheru] 07/10/2024 20:05

@juliemara, it’s the last government that did it, the one of last few years. Suits Tories to keep social mobility down and protect the old money.

[juliemara] 07/10/2024 19:52

THIS "government" has killed the Buy to Let concept!

[beckers2008] 07/10/2024 14:32

From inews...

UK house prices are rising at their fastest pace in nearly two years, mortgage lender Halifax said, fuelled by lower interest rates as buyers returned to the market “in droves”.

The average amount paid by first-time buyers rose 4.2 per cent over the past year- an extra £9,409 in cash terms. A typical first-time buyer property price is now £232,769, the highest since May this year.

Halifax say this is around £1,000 less than the average amount paid by a first-time buyer two years ago (£233,760), a drop of 0.4 per cent. Typical house prices rose 4.7 per cent in September, the strongest rate since November 2022. The average house price was £293,399, close to a record high of £293,507 set in June 2022.

Sikhthetech,
Tell me, when is your six each and every year house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

[ymaheru] 07/10/2024 13:57

So, there must be a house price crash then. Lol.

[sikhthetech] 07/10/2024 13:29

ymaheru

"I’m not sure there is huge demand. I don’t see it."

That's my point. I don't see evidence of huge demand.
The supply has increased and is likely to continue increasing.

[roguetraderuk] 07/10/2024 11:21

blackrock apollo brookfirelds ect buy hundreds at a clip. while small players package individual units and sell them on to bigger funds, not all private landlords homes need to be sold. the important point is that supply is being taken out of the mkt at various levels so while you might have a few more individual units of older stock youve got far fewer new builds up for sale since they are taken out prebuild.
an eg of one deal earlier in the year.
xxps://realassets.ipe.com/news/blackrock-and-outposts-uk-residential-partnership-adds-462-unit-project/10071728.article

[ymaheru] 07/10/2024 11:16

@StT, I’m not sure there is huge demand. I don’t see it. Any increase has pretty much been matched by supply.

However, if anyone offers to buy 100 houses at a 10% discount (or even higher discount), that’s £30million you don’t say no to. It secures the rest of the site and can be great for cashflow.

It’s not distressed selling; these are relationships that will endure, hoping for repeat business. It makes a lot of sense for home builders.

[sikhthetech] 07/10/2024 10:52

ymaheru
"even when selling these houses at heavy discounts."

If there's supposedly huge demand from potential homebuyers, why would HBs need to sell 100 at a heavy discount?
That's the point, HBs currently have dozens, 100+ developments. They need buyers otherwise they will have to sell bulk.

New builds command a premium and that premium would diminish.



As I've posted previously, REITs sold 137 properties at average 68% loss





sikhthetech - 07 Jul 2022 - 16:22:15 - 2901 of 3086 PERSIMMON PLC
I wouldn't buy any HB at the moment...
Affordability issues still mounting up with energy cap set to rise to around £3000 pa in Oct, inflationary pressures pushing up interest rates.

House prices slowing which happens before a crash..

As with my previous prediction for previous housing crash, I'm expecting house prices to fall around 40%, peak to trough. Not all areas/streets will see the big drops... Asking prices fall the greatest. New builds usually command a premium and that would be reduced significantly during a crash.

Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease...
;-)

[ymaheru] 07/10/2024 08:41

Terms will be different. I’ve seen some buy a whole square of 100+ properties on a development, which gives the builder a huge boost to start their project, even when selling these houses at heavy discounts.

There’s a gap in the UK rental market due to small landlords leaving, and rental brands in UK are not established (unlike many other countries), so a good opportunity for the US corps.

[kreature] 07/10/2024 07:28

If the US are buying bulk new build, they must be under different terms without management and estate fees imo, or perhaps the bulk buyers are imposing the fees ?

[beckers2008] 06/10/2024 21:40

Sikhthetech,

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 06/10/2024 20:48

Looking at the Zoopla data, 20% have been for sale for 6+months. Therefore, property is not selling fast in all areas. Sellers need to reduce prices further.


ymaheru, if you replace one of the middle 't' with a 'T' then the link should work.

[ymaheru] 06/10/2024 20:27

It’s exactly what’s happening. As UK investors move out of older properties, US firms are buying 100+ houses at a time from builders. This link shows that (if it works on this message board), as do countless other articles:

hxxps://inews.co.uk/news/wall-street-mega-landlords-revealed-list-2932186#:~:text=Wall%20Street%20mega%2Dlandlords%20are,hit%20record%20levels%20last%20year.

[kreature] 06/10/2024 20:19

No landlord in their right mind would buy new build.
20 yr old EPC C houses with no management scams attached are the way ahead imo

[kreature] 06/10/2024 20:09

Interesting thanks
‘‘Warm Homes: Local Grant’ scheme, with landlords eligible to receive up to £30,000 towards improvements to their first rental property, and £15,000 for work on additional homes to let. Properties must have an EPC rating of D to G. ’

[sikhthetech] 06/10/2024 20:03

Ymaheru

"if government don’t provide grants for existing housing stock upgrades, the boost for PSN will be even bigger."

New builds command a premium, can be 20-30%. That could easily be £60k-80k to a landlord's purchase price. It's a huge increase in investment.

There was a favourable environment for buy to let but not now.

[ymaheru] 06/10/2024 18:26

@kreature, you know the policy might be £30k grants to get the upgrade work done?

If it is, then more landlords will hold old stock; if not, PSN gets a boost as more landlords buy new (like the US corps have been doing in recent years).

So, there’s a boost from EPC measures likely for builders, but if government don’t provide grants for existing housing stock upgrades, the boost for PSN will be even bigger.

[kreature] 06/10/2024 18:18

Well I’m definitely selling….what is the point of holding old rental stock just to get shafted with an EPC C upgrade and 45% capital gains, and potentially a pile of dust ?

[beckers2008] 06/10/2024 17:02

Sikhthetech,

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[ymaheru] 06/10/2024 15:02

Yeah, you’d stated 43%.

small landlords are selling houses in big numbers over the last three years mainly due to tax changes, and some mid-sized landlords are selling due to higher interest rates affecting affordability. Neither are new factors.

Overall, encouraging article. The market is moving again, so seems like the worst is behind us.

[beckers2008] 06/10/2024 15:00

Sikhthetech,

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 06/10/2024 14:49

Ymaheru,

Yes 32% of all homes, 41% of most common, 2 bed, second homes. I had corrected on TW thread but not here. Now done.
Zoopla has over 1m homes listed, so that's around 300k-400k 2nd homes coming onto the market.

1/3rd of all homes being sold being 2nd homes means lower demand by small landlords. They were the one of the main reasons for the surging housing market. It increases supply which gives potential homebuyers more choice. Given new builds command significant premium and there's affordability problems, more buyers are likely to go for the 2nd homes.


It's only the beginning and could lead to a surge of landlords selling.


sikhthetech - 07 Jul 2022 - 16:22:15 - 2901 of 3086 PERSIMMON PLC
I wouldn't buy any HB at the moment...
Affordability issues still mounting up with energy cap set to rise to around £3000 pa in Oct, inflationary pressures pushing up interest rates.

House prices slowing which happens before a crash..

As with my previous prediction for previous housing crash, I'm expecting house prices to fall around 40%, peak to trough. Not all areas/streets will see the big drops... Asking prices fall the greatest. New builds usually command a premium and that would be reduced significantly during a crash.

Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease...
;-)