Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[roguetraderuk] 12/8/2024 11:34

this week is going to be hampered by us and uk data (cpis both wed, us ppi tom then us sales and cons sent to end the wk on fri) but ideally youd like to see some volume accompany the rebound in this sector. youll notice that a lot of the sector has clawed back most of deleveraging inspired losses so outperformance in this sector vs the mkt is continuing. the mkt is going to be v sensitive to any us consumer weakness. inflation topside surprise is less of an issue for the states but for the uk its likely to draw a line through any cut in september so the uk mkt will need positive cues from us data mid wk and onwards to draw a positive close on the week.

[beckers2008] 12/8/2024 11:30

Sikhthetech,

I qoute you...
"My own opinions based on my experience and research" END.
Lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 12/8/2024 11:02

You have to be naive to base your research solely on broker's targets.

Why not mention the other broker's targets, as well? Like JPM with 1510p????


Look at broker's targets around Spring/Summer 2022, around 1700p-2600p, whilst I was saying "I wouldn't buy HBs with a 1200p-1500p target."

What happened?

Brokers:


My own opinions based on my experience and research:

Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons


Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!

[garycook] 12/8/2024 09:50

Jefferies raises Persimmon price target to 1,842 (1,834) pence - 'buy'

[beckers2008] 08/8/2024 16:40

Sikhthetech,

Remember my statement...

BoE Base Rate at 6%?
Absolutely no chance.
Q3 2024 - BoE base rate to reduce?
Absolutely every chance.
I called it correct, as expected.

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/8/2024 15:44

TIA,

"you have no idea how construction works let alone business. The upward cycle has began again"

Really? Where?

Did you know there was a GE last month? The govn have no money, have been axing construction projects. Reports suggest the govn plan to increase taxes and possible raids on pensions. Tax rises will negate small reductions in interest rate, won't they?

Good luck with loading up.

[adamb1978] 08/8/2024 15:14

Good figures. Considerable upside here. Look at previous peaks and consider where nominal house prices have gone

[tialouise] 08/8/2024 15:10

Really, you have no idea how construction works let alone business. The upward cycle has began again

[jaf1948] 08/8/2024 15:08

sikh,

Clearly, irony is wasted on you.

[sikhthetech] 08/8/2024 15:06

Jaf,

"where is sikh to tell us we've got it wrong again"

It's always makes me laugh when posters want opinions from others, who they believe have been wrong!! Shouldn't you be seeking opinions from whom you consider have been right???
I appreciate you need my opinion as you're not able to assess what has been happening and what's likely to happen.
Unlike the trolls, I enjoy my life having made significant amounts of money out of investments by following my own advice!

HBs is a sector heavily influenced in many ways, eg political, economic etc etc
Covid, end of govn support, GE/New govn are all major factors. You do know there was a GE last month, don't you?

The HB/housing market newsflow has been as expected...
Inter


sikhthetech - 31 Dec 2023 - 14:52:06 - 5108 of 5660 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS - PSN
<...>
Opinion: "inflationary Pressures leading to interest rate rises", 6 months before the BoE started raising interest rates


Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons



Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!


Opinion: Expecting some properties to crash around 40%.
REITS sold some 137 at average 68% loss!!


Opinion: Demand will fall
Property transactions have been falling


Opinion: Trading whilst keeping a negative stance on the property market:
Shorting HBs then trading.



Interest rate will stay higher for longer:


etc

[jaf1948] 08/8/2024 11:33

where is sikh to tell us we've got it wrong again ?

[roguetraderuk] 08/8/2024 10:02

fundamentally youve got some tailwinds in this sector while the cash positon today was a bit better than expected even if a more bouyant outlook was partially in the price. technically youve got an upside down shs pattern with the neck around 15 quid. while this holds youve got a target of anything from the 200 day to 21 quid. the weekly cloud which has been in decline for two years looks to have bottomed now and should provide support as the pattern plays out. youd want the volume to pick once it moves above last weeks high.

[pinemartin9] 08/8/2024 09:43

Happy holder here. 4% dividend with the prospect of an easy run up to 2000 ish.

[beckers2008] 08/8/2024 08:03

In particular..

Current trading and outlook

We are encouraged by the early announcements of the new government, particularly around planning. Consumer confidence continues to improve leading to a strong pick up in enquiries and visitors, which will be further supported by the recent cut to the Bank of England base rate. Since 1 July, our net private sales rate is 0.69 which is up 68% on last year, providing us with good confidence on delivering c.10,500 homes for the full year, at the top end of previous guidance and we continue to expect our full year housing margin to be in line with the prior year. Our current private forward order book2 is up 28% at £1.12bn, with a private ASP of c.£289,150, up 2% on the prior year.



Our recent successes on planning, combined with our continued activity in the land market over the past 12 months has further strengthened our land bank and provides us with confidence for further growth of outlets and volume into 2025. Although we recognise that the government's welcome planning reforms will take some time to come through, our ambition remains to grow our outlet base to over 300 in the medium-term.

[garycook] 08/8/2024 06:09

Good Results.

[beckers2008] 05/8/2024 09:18

When is Dire Keir going to sort out this appalling violent disorder.
He's only called a Cobra meeting today!
Should have been Friday....
But he clocks off at 6pm, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 01/8/2024 12:50

""Beckers2008 - 14 Jun 2024 - 13:53:16 - 18194 of 18243.

Remember my Statement...
BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 24 - BoE base rate to reduce.""

Watch and learn trolls, lol, just lol!

[cupra kid] 01/8/2024 12:48

And share price momentum following.

[sikhthetech] 01/8/2024 11:52

And the important bit, as I've previously mentioned... It's not the rate cut but what the Governor says about outlook..
;-)


"Andrew Bailey adds to the message that it is unlikely there will be a flurry of interest rate cuts over the next few months.

“We need to put the period of high inflation firmly behind us," he says, and "we need to be careful not to cut rates too much or too quickly”.

The Bank is forecasting that inflation will increase to about 2.75% later this year, before returning to its 2% target next year."




sikhthetech - 31 Jul 2024 - 21:44:56 - 18670 of 18682
<...>

Let's see what BoE say tomorrow. Their outlook is the important bit.

[sikhthetech] 01/8/2024 11:26

Base rate cut, as expected.



sikhthetech - 11 Jun 2024 - 13:35:13 - 5575 of 5586
Time 2 retire,

The company/sector newsflow has ALREADY been as predicted, hasn't it????.

The prediction was also that the BoE won't start to reduce interest rates until summer... My calendar says it's June!!!



Best to trade

[carpingtris] 01/8/2024 11:12

Rate cut :)

[time 2 retire] 31/7/2024 12:13

Give it up sikh, you're not credible and must like ridicule.
You've been this boards clown for many years and still come on here pedalling your rubbish!
Admit you're wrong and move on.

[tialouise] 31/7/2024 12:00

Seriously desperate

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 11:42

TW results not great, as expected.



"While interest rates and mortgage rates remain high, our teams continue to work extremely hard on the ground to support our customers through the homebuying process"

In other words, they are using incentives to encourage buyers.


"Though it is early days for the new Government, we welcome their recognition that planning is a major barrier to economic growth, of which housebuilding is a significant component, and we look forward to working constructively with them to deliver much needed new homes across the UK."

It just goes to show, house building isn't down because of planning. It's lower due to affordability. Doesn't inspire confidence in Govn plans to build 1.5m homes.



Outlook - post GE, which is more important.


"As at the week ended 28 July 2024, our total order book value was £2,102 million (2023 equivalent period: £2,175 million), excluding joint ventures, representing 7,667 homes (2023 equivalent period: 7,900 homes), of which 74% are exchanged (2023 equivalent period: 77%)."


Order book down/sales down.


"Whilst we have seen some benefit from market stability, mortgage costs remain at higher levels than in recent years which continues to impact affordability for some of our customers, particularly first time buyers."

As expected, high mortgage level continuing to impact affordability.