Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 13/6/2023 11:59

EI,

"Buying in 2012, with the housing market recovery underway, a 500% plus capital gain was available, plus dividends."


Except that housing market recovery isn't currently underway
Look at Bellway's update.


There you go, demand slowing and HB premiums falling. On top of house price falls, rising mortgage rates, affordability problems. All as predicted.



Bellway reservations sink 25% and housebuilder warns of further slowdown as rising interest rates bite
Smaller forward order book of £1.7bn, compared with £2.4bn a year ago
On track to build 11,000 homes over the year to July, 200 less than in 2022
Average selling prices to drop to £300,000, compared to £314,400


"Bellway has warned of a further housebuilding slowdown as fresh rises in mortgage rates, fewer available loans and high inflation dampen demand for new homes.

The FTSE 250 housebuilder reported a 25 per cent drop in reservations in the four months to the start of June compared to the same period last year, while cancellations also ticked up slightly."





sikhthetech - 07 Oct 2022 - 14:31:19 - 10336 of 13726
During GFC I predicted 40% falls in property prices, peak to trough, in some areas. Asking prices fall the biggest amount. New builds usually command a premium which would be significantly reduced or disappear in a housing crash.
I'm expecting similar this time.

[beckers2008] 09/6/2023 12:32

P45,

Not Brexit again, lol, just lol!

[porsche1945] 09/6/2023 10:37

How is this dogshxt still over 12 quid? Rates should be going up three more times this year, recession plus rising unemployment, love it, back to 2007/8 housing cycle. Should see the real falls this autumn, charts for builders looking exactly like 08. Great short, altho pretty much anything listed in brexit basket case doomed U.K. is a short haha.

[beckers2008] 08/6/2023 18:18

I see the troll Sikhthetech is trolling over on CRST today, lol!

When is the village idiot going to admit it was wrong in the following years.
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

Did it admit it made a wrong call being long on it's beloved TLY after losing 30%+ in a day, of course not, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 08/6/2023 13:30

CRST reported H1 this morning.

Statement not good.

Sector newsflow as expected.

Demand falling, as predicted.
Help to Buy ended.
Cost of living crisis.

"fears of another major adjustment in house prices" from CRST CEO.


From crst rns:

"The housing market is undoubtedly experiencing softer demand than the previous year. As we emerged from the restrictive impacts of the pandemic, home movers were searching for more space and were encouraged by the temporary cut in stamp duty. However, by the end of 2022 the sector was facing the start of a succession of interest rate rises to combat inflation, with peak rates forecast to reach their highest level in over 20 years. This was accompanied by the end of the Help to Buy scheme and a general deterioration in economic confidence driven by a cost-of-living crisis and fears of another major adjustment in house prices."

[scobak] 07/6/2023 20:03

Sorry. I was one of the few PIs at the agm. We were nearly outnumbered by the bod.
I know what was said both at the formal and to me at the informal part. However I must be wrong so sorry. Won't post anymore.

[time 2 retire] 07/6/2023 17:05

Only another 39% fall needed, then you can say I told you so!! 😴

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2023 12:30

There you go, Halifax follows Nationwide and says 1st annual fall in 11yrs.
Housing/sector newsflow, as expected.


House prices in first annual fall for 11 years, says the Halifax

"House prices have fallen by 1% compared with a year ago - the first such drop since 2012, according to the UK's largest mortgage lender.

The Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, said typical house prices in May were down £3,000 on a year ago, and £7,500 lower than their peak in August.

The lender, which itself is raising its mortgage rates, said higher borrowing costs were hitting "confidence"."

"This will inevitably impact confidence in the housing market as both buyers and sellers adjust their expectations," said Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, who added that housing demand was cooling.

"Therefore further downward pressure on house prices is still expected."


"Rival lender the Nationwide has recorded a deeper fall in house prices, according to its data. It said a week ago that property values were down in the year to May by 3.4%, the biggest decline for 14 years."

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2023 12:29

I wouldn't buy a share solely based on the dividend, especially where the sector is in a downturn.

The dividend should be regarded as a bonus.

[sdt7618] 07/6/2023 08:49

scobak, that's true, but imho they were referring to the financial year of 22, of which the final divi was the 60p paid recently. We are now in a new year.

Maybe am wrong, maybe am right. But in the long run wtf does it really matter who's right or wrong on an online forum as long as your comfortable with your investment.

[adamb1978] 07/6/2023 08:27

Scobak

Please could you post those comments from the board?
Thanks

Adam

[scobak] 06/6/2023 20:22

There will be no more returns to shareholders this year. Quite clearly stated by the board. Cant understand how you have misread and misunderstood this.

[sdt7618] 06/6/2023 14:14

text from the website. No firm figures etc, but id be quietly confident in an interim divi of some shape or form.

As announced on 8 November 2022, the Board recognises the importance of sustainable dividends for shareholders and will continue to prioritise value creation from a strong return on capital. Following a review and reflecting the increased uncertainty in the political and macro-economic environment, alongside increased corporation tax and the residential property developer tax, the Board has decided to conclude the previous capital return programme, which was introduced in 2012. The Board will instead implement a new Capital Allocation Policy.

The Capital Allocation Policy has the following key principles:

Invest in the long-term performance of Persimmon by ensuring the business retains sufficient capital to continue our disciplined and appropriately timed approach to land acquisition.
Operate prudently, with low balance sheet risk, and a continued focus on achieving a superior return on capital.
Ordinary dividends will be set at a level that is well covered by post-tax profits, thereby balancing capital retained for investment in the business with those dividends.
Any excess capital will be distributed to shareholders from time to time, through a share buyback or special dividend.

[beckers2008] 02/6/2023 14:20

The village idiot 'Sikhthetech' that's been forecasting a housing price crash every year for the past 5 years is quite today.
I wonder why, lol, just lol!

[davius] 02/6/2023 13:08

Houses selling on our estate (coincidentally built by Persimmon in the 90s) have been slow to move through late winter and early spring, unusually five were up for sale and prices were falling. The trend reversed about a month ago, prices are rising again, three have sold or are under offer.

Here in the West Country the housing market appears to have already bottomed. There are several Persimmon developments locally, all seem to be busy.

[time 2 retire] 02/6/2023 12:34

I'd be very happy with that but the way I read it was they'd match 60p at least for the coming year in total but I'm more than happy being wrong. Gl

[davius] 02/6/2023 12:29

50-60p for each I would expect. The 60p payout just made was the final for 22/23 I believe.

[time 2 retire] 02/6/2023 12:26

Davius, are you predicting 50/60p for the interim or full year?

[davius] 02/6/2023 12:18

The yield for 2022 was something like 14%. 60p is a big fall from previous dividends as Persimmon has ended it's 10 year run of big payouts. Expect the next dividend to be 50-60p so a yield of 9.5% or so at the current share price.

[wall street trader] 02/6/2023 11:50

Taking that as a no

[beckers2008] 02/6/2023 10:10

WST,

Don't ask the obvious question, lol!

[wall street trader] 02/6/2023 09:55

ok that's decent is it set to continue ?

[beckers2008] 02/6/2023 09:23

WST,

ffs, dyor, lol, just lol!