Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 13/3/2023 12:15

It'll be months before the full impact of SVB going under, the firesale of assets etc is known.

Budget this week.
BoE interest rate meeting next week.


Makings of GFC mk2



sikhthetech - 01 Mar 2023 - 19:53:38 - 4124 of 4240 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS
This is what happened to PSN/TW share price during the GFC 15yrs ago.

If the housing market follows similar pattern then expect the HB share price to drop again.

The share price shown here are just a guide showing how HB share price don't just fall the once.

Budget in 2 weeks and BoE interest rate decision week after.
Help to Buy ending is the long term concern.

From 2007 to 2008 - GFC

Psn
05/07 1400p
05/08 600p
12/08 200p

TW
05/07 500p
05/08 125p
12/08 8p

[ukneonboy] 13/3/2023 12:04

That's another WINNER for us.

[dissentingvoices] 13/3/2023 11:59

All you out-of-pocket "Bulls" should be thanking us today !!

The share price only bounced when we reversed and closed out our CFD short-positions on Persimmon early doors.

The share price may still fall further, but as the saying goes "it's NEVER wrong to bank a profit".

[beckers2008] 13/3/2023 10:49

sT,

I told you mid October 2022 was the low.
But you have no money, you peasant, lol!
You have no vested interest here, lol.
Why do you waste your time, lol, just lol!

[sunshine today] 13/3/2023 10:20

Bank margins are disappearing.

They have held off paying depositors the going rate, instead paying shareholder’s dividends.

Now they have to raise the deposit rates dramatically.( to attract cash or it’s going into govt bonds ).

They will also increase mortgage lending margin.

[fuji99] 13/3/2023 09:12

I don't think it will be easy to raise a single penny following SV Bank debacle.
The only problem is how this will negatively affect bank lending as they would preserve cash. So overall mortgages may suffer.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
hTTps://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/uk-companies-that-have-relationships-with-silicon-valley-bank/

Polarean Imaging POLX
Aferian AFRN
Venture Life VLG
Redcentric RCN
Eagle Eye EYE
eEnergy Group EEAS
Diaceutics DXRX
Yourgene Health YGEN
GetBusy GETB
Pure Tech PRTC
Molten Ventures

Learning Technologies Group LTG

The Sunday Times 12 Mar 2023 today mentions the following names in their articles...

Roku circa $450 million with SVB

Founding Factory
Adzuna
Elliptic (cryptocurrency business)
Circle (cryptocurrency business) - $3.3 BILLION

[brucie5] 12/3/2023 20:05

Sikh, I didn't mean to touch a nerve ;), merely to point out that predictions one way or another are inexact in most cases. In this case, quite evidently so.

[sikhthetech] 12/3/2023 16:21

Brucie

EZJ up around 100% within 3 months since Oct, whereas PSN isn't. CRY up and many others still in profit...ONE of my shares down temporarily and hit by a gang with multiple ids, where they borrowed shares to manipulate the sp!!!.. wow.. you want to judge opinions on HBs based on ONE unrelated share???? What do you think of the 50% fall in PSN sp, which crashed as I warned or Trmr down 70% which crashed as I warned??

Do you think PSN will do better than TLY over the next few months?

SVB going under is another major challenge facing housing market, banks and the stockmarket in general.


On top of the banking crisis
HBs need to resolve onerous ground rents - millions pounds
HBs need to resolve fire safety issues - millions pounds

whilst
house prices falls
inflation, wage inflation still high.


Budget this week,
BoE meeting next week.

[brucie5] 12/3/2023 15:47

sikhthetech13 Dec '22 - 15:19 - 3882 of 4230
0 1 0

Have a look at TLY They are in the right place at the right time, recurring revenues, cash and pay dividends. They announced one £66m( equivalent to entire Mcap) contract just yesterday. Govn have said reducing waiting times within NHS is priority.
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Hmm. Does this still stack up, Sikh? Fortunately I didn't take your advice. Since December I would have been better off holding PSN!

[ammons] 12/3/2023 13:55

Your numerous predictions about TLY have so far come to nothing. The share price has tanked. Fat load of good your advice has been, Sikh.

[sikhthetech] 12/3/2023 13:51

According to this article, SVB had $8.3bln of mortgages, $2.6bln commercial backed debt on it's books.

15% of it's loans were on property..

I think this will snowball across the world

GFC mk 2

Ouch..


"The stunning failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which was shut down by state regulators and taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Friday morning, sent shockwaves through the tech industry. But it could have major implications for real estate too.

Though the bank primarily lent to venture capital and private equity firms, about 15 percent of the loans on its books were secured by residential mortgages and commercial real estate, according to its 2022 financial report. "

https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2023/03/10/sizing-up-silicon-valley-banks-real-estate-exposure/

[sikhthetech] 12/3/2023 13:42

There'll now be a firesale of SVB's assets...those assets will crash and the effects will be felt across the world.
This is just the start and housing market will be severely impacted. UK is not immune.

SVB's UK subsidiary put into insolvency.

UK govn held emergency talks to try reduce impact on UK tech businesses.

Nothing mentioned about housing market...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64930944

[kop202] 11/3/2023 13:45

Neither do I.... financial press full of gloom and doom

[sikhthetech] 11/3/2023 12:54

There you go, makings of GFC mk2.

Anyone who thinks UK is immune to what's happening in US think again.

The newsflow has been as expected.
;-)


Silicon Valley Bank: Regulators take over as failure raises fears


US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and taken control of its customer deposits in the largest failure of a US bank since 2008.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64915616




sikhthetech - 31 Aug 2022 - 20:14:08 - 3250 of 4226 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS - PSN
ST,

Absolutely, there's been lots of cases of companies paying high dividends only to stop them abrutly.

Anyone who has been investing for a few years would know that already..Look at banks and retailers, especially before the previous housing market crash/GFC of 2007-09.

[dissentingvoices] 10/3/2023 16:33

Loving all the misplaced positivity on this message board.



Some people just can't see what is right in front of them !!

UK interest rates have NOT peaked yet, building material prices are up 8% already in 2023, and Persimmon still has a massive liabilities to remove and replace dangerous cladding.

[brucie5] 10/3/2023 12:38

Need for housing won't go away.
For those with strong balance sheets and land banks, each market decline will simply prove up and stress test the survivors.
Is anyone suggesting that we don't need huge volumes of houses?
Or that PSN will most likely be among the survivors?

[sunshine today] 10/3/2023 12:12

New 7 years low to be hit within weeks.?

[factsandfigures] 09/3/2023 18:26

UK Housing market still in decline
====================================

In economic news, a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) suggested that Britain's housing market was still in decline, but the negative outlook was improving.

The survey showed a net balance of -29%, up from January's -45%, indicating a smaller decline than the previous month, although this is still the 10th consecutive negative reading.

[sikhthetech] 09/3/2023 14:59

RICs data shows market could be stabilising but HB shares not surging, instead they fallen...

The good news must already be factored in the price!!! lol

Unless....



UK house prices could be stabilising despite falls, say surveyors
Rics data for February shows improvement in new buyer inquiries and sales


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/09/uk-house-prices-could-be-stabilising-despite-falls-say-surveyors

[uu4] 09/3/2023 06:24

The tax avoiding landlords ARE my generations embodiment of the desire of poor brained corrupt irreligious badly educated to raise themselves to Uber Mensch, with all the associated corruption of the inviolable historical record which always accompanies such violations against humanity/human spirit.
The directors who paid Themselves corrupt bonuses for doing nothing other than being bailed out are Guilty.
The tax avoiding landlords who had their assets rescued by TAX PAYERS and then pay less than minimum back to GOV are guilty.
Religious/Nationalistic tax avoider networks who hide their crimes back into impenetrable tax havens, Russia, Israel ( both hardening now) etc are guilty.
Anybody who supported the theft of Tax payer assets to rescue tax avoider assets is Guilty.
Anybody who separately or concurrently supported the delay in building rational cheap green energy when it had to be begun 20 years ago is fundamentally Guilty.
In other words the financial system has been corrupted by would be Uber Mensch.
I hope some beginning to realise that these risks occur in each generation and the perpetrators DO NOT learn from history.(even own history)
Unfortunately many venerable institutions are involved incl Crown estate to name one, and most likely the oh so clever! Oh so respectable Masonic club who partook in putting hands in GOV till and extracting only a few £trillion! , and then to prove (to themselves) they are somebody's rightful incarnation on earth? Paid themselves the crooked Bonuses.
Any comment DJ or JF you lovely people

[ukneonboy] 08/3/2023 15:28

Some might suggest that repetition is far better than absolute omission

[viscount1] 08/3/2023 15:22

Would it be possible for participants of this forum to just stop reposting literally the same text day after day with no additional news or insight?

[factsandfigures] 08/3/2023 13:31

Persimmon warns of falling sales with home completions to slump to only 8,500 in 2023
=====================================================================================

Dean Finch, Persimmon Chief Executive, warned that the sales rates seen over the last five months meant completions would be ‘markedly̵7; DOWN this year

He added that lower completions combined with increased sales and marketing costs and a background of building cost inflation running at 8% would have a SIGNIFICANT impact on profit margins in the year ahead.

Financial performance last year was knocked by an exceptional charge of £275 Million to cover safety retrofit costs, including removing and replacing dangerous cladding.

Finch also pledged to start remediation works on another 31 buildings requiring safety improvements before the end of 2023.

The house builder said it expects to have to spend at least £350 Million retrofitting buildings and had started or completed 42 schemes so far with the remainder due to get underway before the end of 2023.