Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 13/8/2023 20:37

sT & Sikhthetech,

What's the share price for PSN going to be in 3 months time.

'Sikhthetech'
When are house prices going to crash 40% peak to trough?
You've been banging on about it for 5 years and House prices have gone up materially since your first appearance in October 2018, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 13/8/2023 19:43

House prices in Scotland now falling. 1st time since Covid.



House prices in Scotland fall for first time since Covid.

[sikhthetech] 13/8/2023 19:40

Benjones,

"Sure it's possible that over the next year it gets a bit worse before getting better, but I don't see that as an issue for long-term performance."

"As for cost efficiency measures, I'm not sure why that flags so much concern? I would hope that any sensible CEO would be prudent with costs in good times and bad."


I'm expecting things to get worse for HBs before they get better.

Especially given, Help to Buy only ended recently. That's a huge loss going forward.

The doubling of incentive levels will cost them money.

Falling house prices.

They've said they are looking at cost cutting in the 'NEW' challenging environment so I think there will be a lot more cost savings coming.

Sales slumped.

[garycook] 13/8/2023 12:33

finkle, Persimmon Historic Yield - 7.08%
Dividends Declared in Previous 12 months
Year End Type Announce Date Ex-Dividend Date Payment Date Dividend
12/2022 Final 01-Mar-23 13-Apr-23 05-May-23 60p
12/2023 Interim 10-Aug-23 12-Oct-23 03-Nov-23 20p
Total: 80.0p
Dividend Yield =
Total Dividends
Current Share Price
=
80.0p
1129.50p
= 7.08%

[adamb1978] 13/8/2023 08:55

What do you mean by capital repayment? Repayment of what? Debt? They have around £500m net cash from memory so there's no need to repay any debt, or indeed take any more on. This sector should run with net cash levels such that the share price doesnt tank in any market weakness and force companies to do rights issues at rock bottom prices

[finkie] 13/8/2023 08:24

Hi the dividend full year is now 60p so around 5% which seems sensible under current conditions. What is proposed capital repayment and how much is left to repay or is it an ongoing payment like the dividend? Thanks

[beckers2008] 11/8/2023 14:04

'Sikhthetech'

You stated on this BB that 'what I post on here influences the share price of PSN'

It's easy to check.

When is the house price crash, 40% peak to trough going to happen?

You've only been banging on about it for 5 years, lol, just lol!

AdamB1978 sums you up nicely.

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2023 13:54

SteMiS,

"This is a £3.6bn mkt cap company. Nothing Sikhthetech says will affect the share price"

EXACTLY.

I believe...
if bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger.
if bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger.

Bull/bear. It's what makes a market.



Yesterday, I mentioned the exact same re opinions on PSN and other ftse 250/100 shares to another poster.
Excerpts from my post yesterday.


sikhthetech10 Aug '23 - 15:27 - 20166 of 20173 Edit

There's nothing wrong with anyone ramping/deramping or posting an opinion, one way or another.

The crucial judge of whether those opinions are right is whether the company/sector newsflow back up the opinions.
An investor should aim to get significantly more opinions right than wrong.
If you can't do that then you're a failed investor and might as well stick to premium bonds.

<...>

So what about other shares I've expressed an opinion on? Ftse 250/ftse 100 shares, so they are impacted by newsflow and not PIs manipulating the share price

<...>

PSN/TW - expressed my opinion in 2022 that I wouldn't buy any housebuilder because of challenges that I listed, my target was 1300p-1500p. The share price was around 2200p, now 50% lower and within my target range.


<...>

Housing market:
In June 2021, months before the BoE even started raising interest rates, I expressed my opinion that interest will need to rise due to inflationary pressures and listed various challenges facing the housing market.

The company/sector newsflow has been similar to the challenges I posted. The BoE started raising interest rates months later. The Housebuilders newsflow have also stated the same challenges as I was posting.







As to Becker, check for yourselves what he is accusing me of. It's easy to do.

[beckers2008] 11/8/2023 11:12

ajb,

Your post does not get away from the fact that the troll 'Sikhthetech' stated that 'what I post on here influences the share price of PSN'

To state this is utter madness and clearly demonstrates that 'Sikhthetech' is clueless with Zero credibility.

Do you disagree ajb?

SteMiS, you haven't answered my valid question?

[belzoni] 11/8/2023 10:43

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1023251/uk-mortgage-payment-shortfalls-jump-as-higher-interest-bites-1023251.html?rel=scroll

[belzoni] 11/8/2023 10:40

Would that be the bulls or the bears?That really is head in the sand mentality.I personally don't see the optimism at the moment but I read fair points from both views

[adamb1978] 11/8/2023 10:35

Guys

Just put the time wasters on filter and don't given them the attention which they're seeking. Take away their oxygen and they'll die. By responding to them, you're providing them with what they're looking for, and will cause htem to hang around longer.

Adam

[benjonesinvestments] 11/8/2023 10:33

Sikhthetech, you're basing the company valuation on next years earnings alone? I think we view valuations very differently.

Do you have any views on net income or FCF figures for Persimmon going forward?

As for cost efficiency measures, I'm not sure why that flags so much concern? I would hope that any sensible CEO would be prudent with costs in good times and bad.

Every homebuilder is pulling back on completions which makes sense given lower demand due to higher mortgage rates. However, the share price has already declined more than 50%. It's well priced in. The valuation now assumes that every single year going forward will be like 2023 (completion figures down 30% and margins down around 30%), which is too pessimistic. At some point, completions will return to normal and lower rates with longer mortgage durations will resume demand and normalise margins.

Sure it's possible that over the next year it gets a bit worse before getting better, but I don't see that as an issue for long-term performance. It would just present a better opportunity to buy

[adrian j boris] 11/8/2023 10:27

Tend to agree with you Beckers in main but have heard that some analysts and reviewers pop in for a peek on some threads and apparently use some viewpoints in their writeups

true or false i do not know for sure

doubt it would affect FTSE 100 companies share price such as PSN

Sadly there are rampers and derampers who do however believe they can influence others and the SP

All the best

[beckers2008] 11/8/2023 10:10

S,

I totally agree with you, however the village idiot'Sikhthetech' stated on this BB.

That 'what I post on here influences the share price of PSN'

'Sikhthetech' states that what one private investor posts on a free BB has the effect of moving the share price of a FTSE 100 Co' seems to be extreme and incorrect statement, do you agree SteMiS?

[fuji99] 11/8/2023 10:10

Another one in difficulties:
Any possible similarities with what's happening in China after Evergrande ?
China property giant Country Garden warns of up to $7.6bn loss

[stemis] 11/8/2023 09:32

This is a £3.6bn mkt cap company. Nothing Sikhthetech says will affect the share price, so not sure why desperate holders think trying to bully him off the board or into silence will help them...

[time 2 retire] 10/8/2023 21:05

Give it a rest mate, it's very boring now.

[sikhthetech] 10/8/2023 20:47

benjones,

"Persimmon is generating £600-800m in strong years and £300m in weak years."

They're not in a weak year YET, so expect the cash to be lower next year. Why would they be doubling incentive levels, preserving cash, increasing their revolving credit limit? Because they are at the START of a weakening year so are preparing themselves for weaker year.

Help to Buy only ended recently. That's a huge loss..
The doubling of incentive levels will cost them money.
Falling house prices.
They are looking at cost cutting in the 'NEW' challenging environment.
Sales slumped.

They obviously trying to preserve as much cash as possible.




Persimmon targets subcontractors in cost-cutting drive

"Persimmon is looking to retender subcontractor packages more regularly as it looks to “share the cost pressures in this new challenging environment.”

The house building giant highlighted cost control measures in its latest results as sales continued to slump.

Group Chief Executive Dean Finch said said: “We are reviewing our subcontractor pricing on a more frequent basis to identify opportunities to secure increased savings. We are actively retendering sites to identify savings."

[benjonesinvestments] 10/8/2023 14:30

I don't see cash levels as an issue - they can be volatile depending on WIP and land spend. Sales price was solid although build cost was higher than anticipated so margins a little lower.

Overall Persimmon still looks cheap to me. Valuation is pricing around £300m NI and FCF each year in perpetuity which doesn't make sense. Persimmon is generating £600-800m in strong years and £300m in weak years. The only justification for the current valuation is that every year ahead is going to be a weak one, which won't be the case.

Even if the housebuilding environment over the next 12 months is rough (and I'm not sure it will be), the long term outlook is fine and Persimmon will have plenty of stronger years where it is generating >£600m FCF again. If a significant house price correction comes, I would only see it as a reason to buy more.

[jaf1948] 10/8/2023 14:15

Sikh,

Before you get totally carried away with your own genius, what about your pronouncement that house prices will fall 40% ? Everything else you said was going to occur was obvious to everyone but your big claim has not happened.

[sikhthetech] 10/8/2023 13:18

Interesting PSN had over £800m cash just 3 years ago and maintained around that level H1 2022. However, cash is now down over 50% at £360m.


My post from THREE years ago.

sikhthetech - 18 Aug 2020 - 11:15:56 - 2309 of 4562
Interesting move by PSN with the dividend.

They have over £800m so the dividend isn't going to make a huge dent in the cash but will provide some confidence.




Beckers
"you wouldn't be here for 5 years being wrong"

My 1st post on here from THREE years ago. You need to change your abacus and stop lying, Beckers.
Readers, sorry about the lying troll, she can't help herself.

sikhthetech - 01 Mar 2020 - 20:22:36 - 2192 of 4562
Homeowners stuck with costly leaseholds given hope of payout

"Although no decisions have been made on redress, buyers who were not told that their property was leasehold before they put down a deposit could have their homes made freehold and customers with onerous ground rents given refunds and have their leases redrawn. Housebuilders who do not co-orperate maybe taken to court."