Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 08/1/2019 07:42

Zama appraisal drilling is an early catalyst that could materially increase "major" interest in Ophir....

[ashkv] 08/1/2019 07:42

Somewhat similar but in Ophir's current situation - let's add that you are getting rental yield of 15% on your investment in the house.

There is no desperation to sell the house as you are not looking for a downpayment on another house - "the transaction is not tied".

The estate agent is the best in the business and is conservative not prone to overvaluations and the house right next door to you has gone for $1,000,0000..

The buyer who put in the low ball offer had the mistaken impression you wished to sell as you might have financial difficulties - which is mistaken....

THERE IS NO NEED TO ACCEPT A LOW BALL BID LESS THAN WHAT OPHIR WAS TRADING AT FOR 52W highs... Fortuna was clearly a goner when Schlumberger pulled out......

[steve73] 08/1/2019 07:16

A simple analogy to the "How can Booth recommend an offer less than MS valuation" might be as follows.

An estate agent tells you your house is "worth" 1 million, so you decide to put it on the market. But the only offer you get is for 700k... Do you sell or wait?

It's the "bird in the hand" dilemma.

[ashkv] 08/1/2019 07:09

For what its worth the view from oil commentator Malcy -->

Ophir Energy
So both the forecasts have come in with regard to Ophir, firstly they are assessing a bid for the company and secondly they have heard from the Equatorial Guinea Government that the ‘R’ licence, containing the Fortuna gas discovery is not to be extended following its expiry at the end of December 2018. This comes as no surprise, after the inability to finance the project which was unfortunately open for all to see, the longer the process was drawn out it became inevitable and the result is a $300m impairment.

After Alan Booth took over as interim CEO the strategy changed, as if to acknowledge the loss of African gas and Ophir is now a South East Asian company with a fine portfolio of assets including the recently acquired Santos package. Shareholders will now wonder what they should do, unsurprisingly the options are at present mainly unknown to them. Regarding the CEO there is good news and bad news, the latter is that Nick Cooper ‘stepped down’ in May last year and still hasn’t been replaced which is an extraordinary length of time even with the Fortuna situation overhanging. Given that the new strategy has been known for some considerable time surely a replacement might have been found by now…The good news is that the ‘interim’; CEO is Alan Booth who is one of the most highly rated oil industry executives and if I was an Ophir shareholder someone I would like to be running the show.

The board of Ophir has now a number of difficult decisions, the primary one is to ensure that when the bid comes it is assessed fairly as I’m sure it will be. Alan Booth has significant experience in this respect and I am confident that investors will be treated right by him. Having said that I still believe that the assets within the company are of excellent quality and that anything but a knockout bid should be treated with caution. Ophir still has an exciting future ahead even if its recent past leaves something to be desired

[ashkv] 08/1/2019 07:00

P.S. I would like to mention I have been a longish term investor of Ophir - having invested when price in 70s a year+ ago and have averaged down.....

[ashkv] 08/1/2019 06:58

Per below NigelPM is the one who started getting off track and engaging in uncivil conduct.

How can Alan Booth & Morgan Stanley (M&A Advisor to Ophir for Medco Bid) recommend a price less than what is stated so by Morgan Stanley Analysts (80p). There is no desperation to sell in the case of Ophir - if there was an impetus to sell that we are not aware of Ophir should make the information public. Otherwise it would be akin to Trump going against the advice of Mattis on Syria pullout - senior staff with morals resigned....It would be a clear abrogation of fiduciary duties to the shareholders.. PLAIN AND SIMPLE - NO IFS AND BUTS IF ONE IS LOOKING AT IT FROM PRUDENT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES AND AN OBJECTIVE LENS.

I AM LONG OPHIR BUT PLEASE EXPLAIN WHAT IS THE COMPULSION TO SELL AT A LOW PRICE UNLESS IT IS A SET-UP/BACKHAND DEALS INVOLVED???

nigelpm7 Jan '19 - 09:12 - 5417 of 5427

Can't see Booth agreeing for less than his advisor Morgan Stanley's target price on Ophir.

How could they? Would be an abdication of fiduciary commitments....

eh?

I've heard some stuff and nonsense on ADVFN but never this particular one.

[ohisay] 07/1/2019 16:21

In the end the market always reverts to value, we've all done speculation - the stuff that keeps you awake nights.

[arteespresso] 07/1/2019 16:16

Ah the PMO/Ophir saga. They had an opportunity years ago for a merger, would have been a good fit at the time. Think PMO have world class assets, with a world class debt:-)

[arteespresso] 07/1/2019 16:14

I'm sure many do, but as I'm sure you're already aware, the market doesn't always work like that. It would explain why some on paper looked good with ridiculous MCap. Have done the research, hence no need to ask what the positives are; often an open question looking to solicit the negatives can be an eye opener if responded to by a wise experienced investor.

[ziblot] 07/1/2019 16:13

Well looking at the sp, I dont think the market is expecting an offer? Zama and Mexico? Are Pmo really ruled out because of their debt? I wouldnt say so if Ophir are cheap as chips.

[ohisay] 07/1/2019 16:04

As a O/G investor on and off for the last 12 years what I really miss these days is posters taking the time to do some research and trying to construct a valuation case based on good old metrics.
Ie 2p resource/oil/gas price resource values per boe/value of contingent resource plus net debt etc etc
It used to be quite common 10 years ago even 5 .
I just dont see it anymore - just a lot of emotional statements and blamegames.
Nobody ever made much money long term like this.

[arteespresso] 07/1/2019 15:55

Looking at where to place my money after this (assuming an offer). Have been looking at SDX for a while, anyone here invested? List of negatives? Thanks

[arteespresso] 07/1/2019 15:24

Ashkv, I can understand your frustration at what may be perceived as being a low ball offer, this is all speculation amongst posters on here who don't have a clue what it is, even if there is one. Your ref, in house broker and valuation, I'm afraid has no relevance. The market does, and ultimately the shareholders will, as it needs their acceptance. This is slightly different to, for example you or I using a solicitor or tax specialist for services rendered, where one would expect said service.

[nigelpm] 07/1/2019 15:20

As an aside I'd be forever indebted to anyone who could explain why this board in particular seems to attract a level of village idiot that is quite impressive.

[nigelpm] 07/1/2019 15:17

Really so you think it is prudent CEO / management action if their advisor's firm is of the view that Ophir should be worth 80p within 12 months but Alan Booth as CEO decides to go ahead and sell firm for 25% less than the value ascribed by their highly regarded investment bank - Morgan Stanley!!! IF THAT IS NOT LACK OF FIDUCIARY DILIGENCE I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS...

IT IS LIKE A TRUSTEE OF AN ESTATE SELLING A PAINTING IN THE PRIVATE MARKET AT A LOW PRICE COMPARED TO BENCHMARK WHEN SOTHEBY's HAS VALUED THE PAINTING MUCH HIGHER AND PUBLICLY PRONOUNCED SO....

YOU ARE CLEARLY A LOW IQ INDIVIDUAL WHO IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH BOARD LEVEL OBLIGATIONS.....

I think I'm going to let you wax lyrically for ever and a day as you clearly have NO idea what you are talking about and it would be pointless to engage you.

[ohisay] 07/1/2019 15:01

Ashkv - take your dog for a walk - if not get one..

[ashkv] 07/1/2019 14:42

To nigelpm

Really so you think it is prudent CEO / management action if their advisor's firm is of the view that Ophir should be worth 80p within 12 months but Alan Booth as CEO decides to go ahead and sell firm for 25% less than the value ascribed by their highly regarded investment bank - Morgan Stanley!!! IF THAT IS NOT LACK OF FIDUCIARY DILIGENCE I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS...

IT IS LIKE A TRUSTEE OF AN ESTATE SELLING A PAINTING IN THE PRIVATE MARKET AT A LOW PRICE COMPARED TO BENCHMARK WHEN SOTHEBY's HAS VALUED THE PAINTING MUCH HIGHER AND PUBLICLY PRONOUNCED SO....

YOU ARE CLEARLY A LOW IQ INDIVIDUAL WHO IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH BOARD LEVEL OBLIGATIONS.....


nigelpm7 Jan '19 - 09:12 - 5417 of 5427

Can't see Booth agreeing for less than his advisor Morgan Stanley's target price on Ophir.

How could they? Would be an abdication of fiduciary commitments....

eh?

I've heard some stuff and nonsense on ADVFN but never this particular one.

[ohisay] 07/1/2019 13:03

15th update will be a sale prospectus.Imv nothing will happen this week so expect to see the price drift.

[wbecki] 07/1/2019 10:36

jotoha2,

Booth just there to sell Ophir as he did Encore imo

Cushy jobs for some spot on I'd wager too.

[dunderheed] 07/1/2019 10:32

Well senn1 if that's correct them I'm only going for 50p a share which I think is way too low.
Anyone care to proffer what the ii's average prices are?
Surely significantly higher than 50p to 60p.
Does anyone think this kind of price range would be approved?

[senn1] 07/1/2019 10:29

Imho they were waiting for this to lapse, so they then could agree on a take out level without this muddying the waters, also market reaction today looks like a deal done.

[jotoha2] 07/1/2019 10:08

I remember Cooper being interviewed some time back , and his eyebrows were twitching like crazy , no ta good sign ,

[wbecki] 07/1/2019 09:56

"Fortuna will go to whoever pays the biggest backhander..."

I guess the brown envelope bung wasnt large enough then...