Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ammu12] 10/1/2019 08:14

Yes looks like a deal done to me.

[senn1] 10/1/2019 08:13

Article about Ophir in the Telegraph today anyone seen it says form offer should emerge before 28th???

[jotoha2] 10/1/2019 08:09

Great charts tradesmarter, Nigela has a bit of a problem , ignore the fool.

[linton5] 10/1/2019 07:49

Cheers tradesmarter great work as usual,I thought you were lost forever a year ago glad your alive mate

[nigelpm] 09/1/2019 21:52

Gonna have to help me here and it might be me being slow but how does TA have any relevance to what price a bidder is likely to pay for a business?

I look forward to your response on this but don't feel obliged to use charts to answer the exam question.

[tradesmarter] 09/1/2019 21:24

Been lucky will ophr before and for me this is a technical "risk/reward" calculated trade/investment on bid situation.Despite the risks, the fundamental backbone would imply this is undervalued at this price anyway within a medium term outlook, so my view is to either win in the short term or hold for the medium term..so it makes a compelling case. For now we have retraced slighjtly more than expected of the gains since bid speculation and Im expecting buyers to "step up" at the 41p level and come in "large" on any approach to 39p (cant see this going 36p gap area, so downside is limited imvho..

To the upside looking at the charts I would guess that a bid would likely be in the 55-65 area and anything 50p or below would be opportunist. Many oil plays are significantly undervalued but takeover and consolidation should see the valuation gap close this year...For many the perfect storm of events is creating opportunity for those with risk tolerance...my view is any staring bid would be circa 50-55p

I'll do my reading on the fundies tonight, but for now I think this will trade 39-46 ahead of news and will then be anything from 36-66 after the news. (whilst 31p si the ultimate risk, now this is "in play" I think 36p will be the downside. Based on the risk/reward and the fundamental back up, I'd say it's a risk worth taking at these levels. Whislt I have have "jumped the gun" at 41p I'm expecting robust buying in the 39-41p area back to 46p in the days ahead

Downtrend showing bottom and likely 55p "first bid target area" and 50% retrace area where I'm expecting support to kick in

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Technically 41-39p looks "strong for a bounce"

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55-65p is where I believe the final bid would land if it comes

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In short at these levels 20% risk for 40% gain? (views will differ)

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Trading range likely 39-46 ahead of news would be my best guess?

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best guess on no bid outcome

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best guess on bid outcome

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From all account 41 to 39p seems a great entry/top up area from a technical perspective....the rest will depend on the bid situation, you rolls the dice and takes your chances..31-77 low high range so at 41p it is very much "in play"
best of luck

[nigelpm] 09/1/2019 19:36

If anyone has a sub :

hxxps://www.txfnews.com/Tracker/Details/eaf3b612-8b30-49dd-a4ed-6e51b73592ef/Medco-Energi-rejigs-RBL-facilities

[ammu12] 09/1/2019 18:25

It's a bargain at current share price Stock market never makes sense.

[thedudie] 09/1/2019 17:22

Increased my stake today....
It occurred to me that they have a bit of capex (put aside for Fortuna) looking for a home...

[general george] 09/1/2019 16:50

Oil surging.....

[ohisay] 09/1/2019 16:35

Best get up early on Tuesday ..

[ashkv] 09/1/2019 15:40

Just read that Faroe has succeeded in picking DNO up on the cheap as more that 50% of shares tendered.

DNO did have sweet timing to provide wind behind the back of their offer as Brent post their offer crashed to 1.5 year lows so I suppose some IIs were happy to offload rather than keep the shares.

Reverse in play for Ophir as Brent uplift should provide management with sufficient ammo against a low ball offer...

[ashkv] 09/1/2019 14:47

Very encouraging Hotchkis & Wiley (H&W)upped stake in Ophir by 2% and are the largest holders at 13.7%

"Hotchkis & Wiley" - Investment philosophy per H&W detailed below -->

"Since its inception in Los Angeles in 1980, Hotchkis and Wiley has focused exclusively on finding and owning undervalued securities that we believe have potential for appreciation. We manage value equity and high yield assets for institutional and mutual fund investors. The firm is independently owned with a majority interest held by employees."

[ashkv] 09/1/2019 13:58

Excerpt on FT article concerning cancellation of Ophir Fortuna license



Monday’s announcement was expected by the market and Ophir’s share price remained broadly unchanged in morning trading.

“For me it’s unsurprising,” said Charlie Sharp, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. “They had flagged at their interims that the licence might terminate at the end of last year. And I think the tone even at that point was not optimistic.

“At least two years of Ophir’s life up until the middle of last year had been pretty much devoted to this. They had all of their eggs in that one rather uncertain basket,” Mr Sharp added. “Maybe nobody thought it was really worth it in the end except Ophir.”

Ophir has now shifted its attention to south-east Asia, where all of its production and development efforts are focused, following recent acquisitions. It produces around 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the region.

[ashkv] 09/1/2019 13:41

You mentioned Faroe and from my understanding management is fighting this bid as it considers it opportunistic and hasn't recommended the predatory/low ball bid from DNO - and DNO is likely to go hostile!!!!

Also post Nick Cooper leaving followed by Schlumberger Fortuna Exit on 31 May 18 - the share has taken a battering and likely is down a bit due to Fortuna news hangover (though recent share price movement post Fortuna license exit would indicate it was priced in).
Nonetheless in the last 6 months post Schlumberger bailing out on Fortuna, write down from Ophir of $300mn the share price was 53p in June - when GBPUSD was around 1.35p versus 1.27p Therefore in dollar terms given Brexit stress Ophir is cheap as chips.

SANTOS ASSETS HAVE OUTPERFORMED AND PRODUCTION AROUND 27k bpd - per increase in production news from December Drilling RNS.

THERE IS NO NEED TO SELL OPHIR JUST POST FORTUNA NEWS WHEN ASIAN ASSETS OUTPERFORMING, FORTUNA HANGOVER ON STOCK & ENERGY MARKET JUST RECOVERING FROM A RECENT SELL OFF.

Ed1233

They were trading at 33p not long ago. That didn't suggest a realistic chance of reaching £1 next year. The shares have slipped a tad this morning (42p). I'd be very pleased if a recommended bid of say 55p were made.

There needs to be something in it for the bidder, or why bother?

(Look at Faroe Petroleum - fallen to a bid below brokers' price targets. That's realistic pricing.)

[spacedust] 09/1/2019 10:46

2 weeks until bid. Will push share price towards 50p by 27th Jan. Easy 20% from here. Time to get in

[general george] 09/1/2019 10:40

Ok, I thought you were refering to Madura & Sampang, they got from Santos.

None the less, Ophir is rated very cheaply at the moment. It didnt take long for the Santos assets to start paying a load of the debt off.

Im happy with my investment, takeover or no takeover.

[ohisay] 09/1/2019 10:35

Indonesia gas ? - 9k ex Santos plus 2/3k from Kerendan

[general george] 09/1/2019 10:29

I think the gas production was about 9k boepd?

Would leave us with 20k production and $150m in the bank.

The investment case is obvious, complete sale, asset sale or no sale...

[ohisay] 09/1/2019 10:13

As I've said before I think it unlikely that an all cash offer for the company at a price that would be acceptable to Ophir will be made by Medco .
I think the best we can hope for is 200m$ odd for the Indonesian gas assets which Medco would likely know most about .
Cant see them being that core to Ophir and theres a lot of probable contingent capex attached to a Meliwis dvpt this year for Ophir (45m$ from memory) which they can save.

[nigelpm] 09/1/2019 09:50

They were trading at 33p not long ago. That didn't suggest a realistic chance of reaching £1 next year. The shares have slipped a tad this morning (42p). I'd be very pleased if a recommended bid of say 55p were made.

There needs to be something in it for the bidder, or why bother?

Of course - don't disagree with any of that - just making the point that not everyone is out to get 30-40% and be done with it.

[ohisay] 09/1/2019 09:48

Important to remember that OPHR is mainly about gas (or was the last time I looked).

Nope - In terms of production its 40% to 45% gas - in part because the oil assets are performing better than f'c.