Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[valuehunter1] 06/1/2019 23:32

Well lets hope if the bid doesn't come in first thing tomorrow then they don't decide to suspend the shares...Im ready to take the market makers on and pile in and sell for a handsome profit - all within this month.

[arteespresso] 06/1/2019 23:13

Nigel, it's business. I wouldn't say it's appalling; yes in the ideal world for us investors, it would have been nice to have had an opportunity for Ophir to get the funding. We have to remember, a year extension was already granted in 2017; I would say E.G have been entirely reasonable in giving Ophir and partners time to address this. If I were them, i would do the same, give it to someone who is in s position to act. Miami's springs to mind, given that they intend to shoot 3 D in block EG 24. One area I agree with Joto, and my issue with Ophir in the past when I sold out, this obsession with wildcat drills rather than saying, well we've 2 major commercial discoveries, let us monetise at least one of them!!!! And that was down to the numpty CEO before this one. Irrespective with what happens now, at least Ophir have a solid production base and strategy in place. Part of me now hopes the bid is not forthcoming, as I see more gain in a few years than any potential price on offer now, unless we get into a bidding war:)

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 21:39

And they couldn't work with OPHR for another few months to get it sorted?

Their behaviour is appalling.

[arteespresso] 06/1/2019 20:00

To be honest, Ophir et al knew the deal, it's not E.G's problem that Ophir/Partners couldn't get the funding sorted out. The irony, the sale of 20% to Pavillion in Tanzania could have funded this!! No point in reflecting on what can not be changed; I'm guessing the E.G government have someone on place to take it up without delay.

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 18:36

Pretty much sums it up GG. Pretty clear to most that EG are not people to do business with. They've royally shafted themselves over this debacle as well as ophir and golar.

[general george] 06/1/2019 18:04

Fortuna will go to whoever pays the biggest backhander...

[wbodger] 06/1/2019 17:04

I'd be surprised if they weren't active at some point. But I should back out, I really don't know why they left. I always assumed they wanted more control.

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:55

If someone like Schlumberger got involved you could imagine an unholy row breaking out - if it's a Chinese firm forget any hope of getting anything back at all.

[wbodger] 06/1/2019 16:53

Yeah, Schlumberger, LOL

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:51

Another important factor - when you strip out the $300m carrying value for Fortuna on the balance sheet at half year you still get c.$800m of equity.

For Medco paying significantly less than this counts a one-off uplift in FV on acquisition assuming they agree with how OPHR have accounted for stuff.

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:46

Nigel where r the parts costs 're Fortuna to be recovered from?

EG or the company taking over the license presumably - unlikely they get anything but you'll note the wording :

"Nevertheless, we will continue to work constructively with the authorities in Equatorial Guinea."

I'm unclear as to why that would be mentioned otherwise.

[wbodger] 06/1/2019 16:44

hxxps://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/woodmac-medco-ophir-merger-to-create-se-asia-upstream-powerhouse/

[dunderheed] 06/1/2019 16:43

Nigel where r the parts costs 're Fortuna to be recovered from?

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:39

Yup, agreed - decks cleared - let the fun begin. 55-60p starting is my guess.

[wbodger] 06/1/2019 16:36

I meant exactly that, that the timing was no coincidence. They should not need extra time to factor in the Fortuna announcement.

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:30

I don't see that the confirmation on Fortuna will affect things, because the coincidence of timing suggests that Medco didn't want it

I don't think it was a coincidence actually - Medco probably said to OPHR - if you get nothing from Fortuna we'll make you an offer - timing was probably very deliberate actually on publicly announcing given the license was ending on the 31st.

There must be some question of whether past costs can be recovered - otherwise it's worth zero.

[wbodger] 06/1/2019 16:21

I think there will be an offer arte. (#5374)

I don't see that the confirmation on Fortuna will affect things, because the coincidence of timing suggests that Medco didn't want it Perhaps didn't want to inherit obligations to EG related to abandonment. The announcement by EG itself should clear that possibility.

by not later than 5.00 pm on 28 January 2019 (the "Deadline"), Medco must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Ophir under Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for Ophir

Medco don't want to be seen as time-wasters.

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 16:19

If I was Medco I would get the offer in there now before other parties start to get interested. The Santos assets were a great purchase by the BoD.

Yup, would make sense before the likely to be strong update (Fortuna aside) on the 15th.

Reckon there's a chance the bid comes tomorrow, or at least this week.

[valuehunter1] 06/1/2019 14:35

Unfortunately the UK market failed to recognise the value of the Santos assets and good on Medco for coming and seeing the value. Well done and another total screw up from the UK market - letting solid companies go on the cheap. Just like LRD last year and countless others. No chance this would happen in US.

[valuehunter1] 06/1/2019 14:26

If I was Medco I would get the offer in there now before other parties start to get interested. The Santos assets were a great purchase by the BoD.

[valuehunter1] 06/1/2019 14:24

"The next scheduled announcement by Ophir will be our pre-close trading statement on 15 January 2019 when we shall update investors on the progress made throughout our portfolio and the advances to our production and cashflow base in Southeast Asia."

From the above statement clearly the Santos assets are outperforming. Should be a strong update and should help to land a decent offer.

[arteespresso] 06/1/2019 12:29

The irony of it all, arguing between 65-80p, there may not even be an offer after all. Anyhow, I'll be busy researching which value oiler to put all my money should there be an offer!

[nigelpm] 06/1/2019 11:37

One big player that could counter offer is Soto ( sia) i would personally rather see the assets go to them

Certainly a merger between the two would make a lot of sense. I've made that very point before.

[arteespresso] 06/1/2019 11:03

Ohisay, agreed, Mexico provides a better route to production; the big issue is Ophir haven't drilled and even if they do, who is to say they will have a commercial find? The initiation of talks between the Tanzanian government and Shell are encouraging, and yes there are potential issues to overcome. Politically, all it needs in Mexico is a change of government and hence policy, and you're back to square one. Let's see how quickly the Zama prospect is developed? I know which one I'd rather have, a proven massive commercial find with Shell as a partner.