Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[senn1] 03/1/2019 08:05

Does the offer if it comes, has to be higher than the 12 month high of 72p?

Many thanks in advance

Senn

[arteespresso] 03/1/2019 00:16

Ed, I believe Booth et al would have made the other party aware of the 'do not waste our time figure'. Even though Medco have a MCap below 1Billion, they have completed big deals for over $1B ref mining back in Indonesia. Break Ophir up into 3 entities: a) Reality of production 27,000 boepd b) Value of 20% of the Tanzanian block, when the government pull their finger out - Parties are in talks, and this could become a reality once hoa are signed. c) Fortuna which is the unknown. You are correct in that there may not be a bid, however what Booth has done with the cleverly worded RNS following Fortuna at the end of December, was to highlight a potential bidder. His main task was complete, the remainder will be dictated by someone who values Tanzania/E.G at a greater price than what Medco May wish to pay for it. Do I think there will be a bid for Ophir? A very positive yes! Do I think it will Medco? Don't know but I do not think it matters, as the next year or so will be M&A, consolidation amongst the Oil/Gas producers, and the first one on the market shelves is Ophir!!

[ed 123] 02/1/2019 23:34

Nice reasoning, Arteespresso. :-)

However, I fear you may be overly optimistic?

We holders shouldn't forget there is a chance of 'no bid'. Medco obviously want to acquire Ophir but, if it is to happen, there needs to be agreement on the price. Price may be a stumbling block, especially if Ophir wants much value for its dormant assets and its exploration licences. There needs to be sufficient gain for Medco ............. or why bother?

Fwiw, my own view is that, starting from about 33p prior to speculation, a bid of 55p (or top end 60p) would be plenty. I honestly don't see it getting anywhere near £1.

Notwithstanding Faroe/DNO, hostile bids are rare. If a price can't be agreed privately, then it's a 'walk-away' and we fall back to possibly the high 30's?

Ideally, holders need another interested party to enter the game.

[arteespresso] 02/1/2019 23:08

Although my initial views of Booth taking over had been on the basis of a deal on Fortuna, which still remains a piece of the jigsaw, it seems a lot more has been going on behind the scenes. In the assumption of the asset that has no current uncertainty, Tanzania, despite 20% being sold to Pavillion circa $1.2 billion, times and markets have changed - the one positive is that the Tanzanian government has woken up and started talks with various parties. I however feel the realises value of that asset would be in the region of circa £300-£400 M. With current producing assets, another £300 M, and we are looking at £600-£700 Million. Ignoring debt for the time being, a £700M m/cap leaves us at just under £1. Fortuna has been ignored, however if part of the sale includes an extension of the licence (on the basis of the acquiring company having sufficient funds to progress without delay), the I'd say add another £200-300M into the equation. All ball park figures of course, but in my view highlights that the $1.2 B touted for Tanzania is just pie in the sky unfortunately.

[wbodger] 02/1/2019 19:24

Fair enough joto.

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 19:12

George , i told you weeks ago all loses recovered with a massive short , now that the BOD are doing what I suggested....sell up , then now I am their number 1 fan.

Am looking for a profit here of at least 100k

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 19:09

If Booth gets 140 pence I will send him a crate or two of Bolli

[wbodger] 02/1/2019 19:04

My feeling is that Medco want the Asia portfolio I wonder if they looked at the Santos assets and thought that was a good deal. Why else would they wait for the end of the year, presumably waiting for the EG licence to run out.

If they get an agreed deal with Ophir Board they could still revive it I suppose. But it would have been easier to work through OPHR when the licence was active, so I guess they don't want it.

Time will tell.

If we do get a reasonable deal I think jotoha might have some humble pie to eat, after posts about Alan Booth ;-))

[ammu12] 02/1/2019 16:25

Strong close

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 15:40

Time will tell artee ,I have called it right and traded this right on the button without overall loss , the fun is just starting , in and out thats what it is about !!

[ammu12] 02/1/2019 15:36

Brent rising

[arteespresso] 02/1/2019 15:20

I dont think you ever saw the picture Joto, you opinion changes quicker than the weather. Your figure of 140p is as baseless as most things you say - for that to happen there will need to be interest from several.

[romeike] 02/1/2019 14:48

The board has to recommend any bid to the shareholders, unless the other side opt to go hostile. So they very much have "a choice". I don't see how an all bid of at least 80p all cash could be seriously considered - what benefit to shareholders? An oil price recovery next year would be enough to deliver 80p on its own so why risk the distraction of a buyout situation for that?

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 14:41

mm are playing a blinder , taking out all the day traders today , the plan is there for all to see , tomorrow will be the day to buy big.

[nigelpm] 02/1/2019 14:24

I'm not going to engage you - bye.

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 14:21

So what happened to your previous buys at 38p , sold for a profit at 33p I assume , dream on nigela.

[nigelpm] 02/1/2019 14:09

I'm not here to be brave - I'm here to make money like most people here - you excepted.

[jotoha2] 02/1/2019 13:56

Very brave of you , you normally sit on the fence , I did call 42p for today , 38p tomorrow and then 70 pence friday , action stations , we are good to go!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nigelpm] 02/1/2019 13:28

Had some more between 46 and 44p - 25% rise is pathetic really.

[ashkv] 02/1/2019 13:17

Posted earlier - Per Stifel Note out today 'Ophir in preliminary takeover approach: we think shareholders should hold out for at least 66p per share'

[thedudie] 02/1/2019 13:16

Not sure the board has much (or any) say in it - as far as I can see they don't hold many shares. It is down to what the big holders will accept or what their view of the future is. They may be happy with 70p and there isn't much/anything the board can do about it.

If the company was worth £1.40 then they wouldn't have traded at about 32p a week ago. How many takeovers do you see at 450% of recent price ..... sadly none!
td

[nigelpm] 02/1/2019 12:50

Think that's too hopeful rom. However it's possible if more get involved. I'm pencilling in first try at 55p. Won't be successful.

[romeike] 02/1/2019 12:33

@rayrac - I expect a buyout would be funded using a finance facility set up by their advisers. The approaching party is easily large enough to make a decent offer if it wants to. I suspect they will might try at 80p but wonder whether than would be acceptable to the board. Something over 120p would be more justifiable in actually providing investors with a premium but with the share price so hammered this would be hard to achieve without competitive bids.