Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[beergut] 11/1/2019 12:18

I think the board have no to 48.5p and Medco wanted to get the offer into the open to see if any institutions would bite.

As it isn't an offer they haven't started the clock which I understand starts to tick once a formal offer is made.

At this price I would rather sell it to the Singapore group so they can get the extra 20% of their gas feild, and throw the rest of Ophire away.

[thedudie] 11/1/2019 12:15

Yesterdays 15.28 RNS contains board holdings

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 12:09

Sadly management/Alan Booth - don't have many shares. In the low single percents if I recall what another board member posted....

Alan Booth is worse than Nick Cooper if he is going to be in cahoots with the Indonesians and allow British long term investors, widows & pensioners to be so unfairly treated.....

"Does anyone know how many shares the BOD & Managements have... or probably more importantly how many Options (that would vest on a takeover)?

This is probably one of the most important variables that will determine their response."

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 12:05

Interesting that the BoD have issued this RNS - I think there are others in the background they are trying to firm up and come in over the weekend. 48.5p is a starting point, could end up at 55-60p.

The BoD haven't issued it!!

It has been issued by Medco.

Fully expect a strong kick back from OPHR.

[valuehunter1] 11/1/2019 12:05

Ashkv - its totally unfair to call the Medco bandits in all this - its the LSE market that has mis-priced this leading to such a situation. You can't blame Medco for putting in an opportunistic bid when the market is offering that opportunity.

[ohisay] 11/1/2019 12:05

Ed - you very much need to check out Bualuang on the Ophir website - its got plenty of life left in it.
As has Kerandan .
Rgds.

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 12:03

Markets need to back a British company and reflect true value if Ophir deliver good news on the 15th - hope MORGAN STANLEY ARE NOT UP TO THEIR TRICKS in SUPPRESSING SHARE PRICE..... SCUM

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 12:02

News released on a Friday - trying to steal the company on the sly.....

[romeike] 11/1/2019 12:02

This was over 60p as recently as May.

[ashkv] 11/1/2019 12:01

Hi Please write to below e-mails to convey PI's expect a decent price close to 80p - target price of Ophir advisor Morgan Stanley.
Also please note that Ophir was trading in the mid 50s after Schlumberger pulled out of Fortuna & Cooper left CEO role.

[e-mail]
[e-mail]
[e-mail]

[steve73] 11/1/2019 12:01

Does anyone know how many shares the BOD & Managements have... or probably more importantly how many Options (that would vest on a takeover)?

This is probably one of the most important variables that will determine their response.

[ed 123] 11/1/2019 11:59

Thanks for your figures, Ohisay. :-)

Yes, Santos was $10 per 2p barrel but Santos assets are more valuable per producing barrel than the old Ophir and Santos bits have appraisal and exploration potential too. Pre-Santos, a big chunk of Ophir's 2p was in Bualuang, which is in decline and no(?) further exploration potential.

The Santos part of the enlarged Ophir is only about 30%. The rns re: Santos said the acquisition would double production revenue. That shows that the old Ophir assets were significantly less valuable per barrel than the new Santos ones.

Re: The Medco 48.5p per share, $7.7 per 2p barrel might even be slightly too high. The balance of the Medco proposed offer being made up of Tanzania and Mexico.

I still think about 50p per share is fair.

[yasx] 11/1/2019 11:58

Ohisay,

It depends on what roles if any are afforded to members of the Board if the bid goes through - they will probably look at it from a personal perspective.

[ohisay] 11/1/2019 11:56

I wonder if the stock phrase "materially undervalues" gets a mention in Tuesdays update - I'd lay odds on it.

[yasx] 11/1/2019 11:55

One would think Medco will have sounded out some of the larger notifiable holders in advance - and the market appeared to have an inkling as regards the likely price, hence why it hoverred around the current price or just below it.

It matters not what readers on here think - the majority holders will likely have already indicated to Medco what a reasonable offer might be, or, will do fairly soon.

[valuehunter1] 11/1/2019 11:53

Interesting that the BoD have issued this RNS - I think there are others in the background they are trying to firm up and come in over the weekend. 48.5p is a starting point, could end up at 55-60p.

[valuehunter1] 11/1/2019 11:51

Ohisay, fully agree, the assets are performing strongly and we are just coming from all time lows due to Mr Market losing the plot in December, these damn algos are a big problem these days.

[nigelpm] 11/1/2019 11:50

lol - no chance that gets accepted - funny.

[ohisay] 11/1/2019 11:47

The PMO update yesterday showing continuing good performance at the VN well and likely news on Zama before the end of the month shows there's plenty of value beyond Medcos aspirations.

[ohisay] 11/1/2019 11:41

On my sums allowing for depletion in the reserves in 2018 and end year debt of 65ms that bid equates to around 7.7$ per 2p boe EV .
Factor in some 2C upside and exploration and thats, as an absolute minimum. 25% too low.

They paid 10$ per 2p for the Santos assets and they weren't the highest bidder.

[ed 123] 11/1/2019 11:36

A challenge ....

Would anyone who wants more than 48.5p care to post their valuation of the various parts of Ophir?

[thedudie] 11/1/2019 11:31

I am a holder and clearly want more than this!.... but there weren't many buyers in the low 30s and no-one in enough size to make the price swiftly rebound. So why should a buyer want to pay much more? They have their own shareholders to satisfy.

It is up to the institutions who own the greatest slice but having been through the DNO / Faroe offer the lure of a quick deal appears too strong for institutions to resist !

[ed 123] 11/1/2019 11:30

Well, I would take 48.5p per share. I had suggested here that a bid of about 50p might come. We're not too far away at 48.5p.

Obviously, Medco are testing. There will be a 'take no action' response soon from Ophir. Medco want a recommendation, so imo there's another bit to come if Ophir's board go for it. Maybe 51p?

In the market at 45p atm. I'm waiting for that little bit extra and a recommendation. (There remains a small chance that a new intested party appears, too.)