Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[senn1] 03/1/2019 12:04

There is a flipside to your post

Maybe AB and the ii will take that 65p ish as they might be waiting years for the share price to reach that on its own.

Think about it.

[nigelpm] 03/1/2019 12:03

Beyond that there are all kinds of scenarios that can play out.One thing I do know is we have the best guy negotiating on our behalf.Same guy who bought a shedload of shares in September at 37/38p

Yes, this is extremely important. You need luck in this game but you also need someone who has done it before. Booth did with Encore - incredibly successfully as well.

[ohisay] 03/1/2019 11:33

I dont see AB accepting anything less than 65p per share for the Far East assets.Nobody has mentioned the the contingent 2c resource particularly in Indonesia which is likely to be very attractive to Medco.
This is basically an opportunistic bid given where the oil price currently is and Fortuna likely to expire in Medco's eyes.
To me 65p is at the top end of Medco's aspirations and on balance I cant see them going that far.
As for AB giving away gems like those Mexican blocks for almost nothing in Stifels 66p scenario thats cetainly not going to happen .Minimum he would want for the whole company is 80p plus.
And Medco is certainly not going to pay that .

Beyond that there are all kinds of scenarios that can play out.One thing I do know is we have the best guy negotiating on our behalf.Same guy who bought a shedload of shares in September at 37/38p.

[nigelpm] 03/1/2019 11:18

VH - I realise that - I've been here invested for a while - certainly not something you need to explain to me ;-)

I'm just trying to rationalise what the market is doing. Clearly, I think the price is wrong otherwise I wouldn't be here.

[steve73] 03/1/2019 10:52

Ref shorts....

Although there are no short positions of over 0.5% (disclosable), there is (or was) a pretty high Stock-on-Loan of 6.4% average during Nov (up from 5.3% Oct avg, & 3.6% Sept avg). Dec average figures will be available in the next couple of days.

Of course, not all stock on loan is used for shorting, but most of them probably are.

NAI.

[nigelpm] 03/1/2019 10:47

The share price action is pretty well indicating a large chance that the market doesn't think an offer will be forthcoming or that the offer will be derisory.

[nigelpm] 03/1/2019 10:43

Encore actually got down to 14p! - I know because I bought some below cash.

Ophir is quite different in that there's a lot of "hidden value" that is difficult to realise unless a bidder specifically wants it and thus no one will pay for all of it.

Now, I've had time to think about it and review RNS etc... I'm actually hoping the bid fails and I can buy again in the 30's and wait for some of that hidden value to come clear.

I wouldn't mind Medco taking out all the SE Asia stuff for say 50-55p and leaving the rest but that's not really feasible.

Perhaps the board will consider something of this nature though to allow existing shareholders to benefit from that hidden value.

[cashandcard] 03/1/2019 10:38

Ray,


Just a cold hard look at the overall picture, in which equities exist and are governed by. You cannot detach stocks from the underlying market. Also, you can have great assets, but the equity may never reflect anything near true value. Take the best offer and run with it, every story has a conclusion.


Cash

[rayrac] 03/1/2019 10:30

Bit pessimistic cash? This is about a bid for assets, not whether we are in a bull/bear situation? Medco will have to do better than where we are now!

[cashandcard] 03/1/2019 10:14

Interesting developments here. I was a shareholder in Encore which was taken over at a value of circa 70p/share in an all-paper deal by PMO some years ago, AB was the boss. Prior to that takeover offer, the Encore share price also collapsed to the mid thirties, then boom offer thrown in. Will history repeat itself I wonder?

I would take the highest offer here and run with it. Markets are at the end of a ten year bullish cycle and monetary policy has changed - those holding out and wanting more, I don't blame you, but don't be greedy. A small reasonable profit is better than no profit at all. Holding here for another year with what is ahead of us may not be a great decision.


Cash

[jotoha2] 03/1/2019 09:53

Good luck with your 60p , it will happen for sure and more!!

[ed 123] 03/1/2019 09:51

Ashkv. Management may consult with the larger shareholders but, sadly, I can't see them paying any great attention to the smaller ones.

A large number of shares have changed hands over the past year or so and the new holders can make a profit from what was until recently a losing position. There may not be a lot of resistance to a bid below the level I assume you are hoping for. Certainly I would be very pleased with a bid of say 55p and 'over the moon' if it were as high as 60p.

[jotoha2] 03/1/2019 09:51

You also have to remember that apart from two recent entries around 38p , the balance of II are well under water here , many millions , they will have long memories if Booth does a dodgy deal!!

[jotoha2] 03/1/2019 09:48

I did say there was a possibility of dodgy dealings here , only time will tell , if there is then the Bulk of the BOD will move to the far east under the new management and the gravy train continues , Booth's reputation is on the line here , so am sticking with 100p plus as final deal.

[ashkv] 03/1/2019 09:45

Below note to FT Junior Energy Journalist Myles McCormick

"Hi Myles, Interested to discuss Ophir -I am a small investor in the firm. Ophir's house broker Morgan Stanley had a target price of 80p prior to going restricted on 31/12/18 as working on deal. I would hope you protect small investors and highlight if a low ball offer. Thanks,"

[ashkv] 03/1/2019 09:38

This is really smelling of a crock-up - given timing of offer (when everyone away), quotes from the most negative analysts on FT (good publicists for Medco).
I just received the Bloomberg screen grabs of historical target prices for RBC Analyst Al Stanton - his last updated 12m forecast on 4th December 2018 was 90p prior to going restricted.
And for Morgan Stanley Analyst Sasikanth Chilukuru the 12m target price was 80p last updated on 12th December 18 prior to going restricted on 31st December 2018.
Therefore taking both the above analysts into account (Citigroup not available on Bloomberg). For the 9 analysts with price targets on Ophir as of last 3 months the target price is 63.44
IT IS INCONCEIVABLE THAT ANY MANAGEMENT CAN ACCEPT A PRICE LESS THAN THE ANALYST CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN REALITY 63.44 Ideally one should hope for equal the estimate of the house broker Morgan Stanley which is 80p.
(Given the 2 most bullish analysts have gone into Restricted status as they are working on the deal)

[ashkv] 03/1/2019 09:34

Bloomberg Analysts ex-2 "Restricted" analyst estimates (which happen to be the most bullish analysts)
Citigroup not available on Bloomberg. The two most Bullish Brokers Morgan Stanley & RBC are not showing their latest estimates as "Restricted" - since working on deal.
For the 7 brokers who I can see in the view of screenshot my friend has provided me - the average price target is 58p - with Stifel being highest at 66p.
Please note once again that "house broker" Morgan Stanley was at 82p just a few months ago prior to going restricted...

[ammu12] 03/1/2019 09:12

Lol reported shorts. Are you a newbie to this game? Anyways no point arguing when share price and oil is on recovery

[ed 123] 03/1/2019 09:10

I do see the rise and I'm a happy holder. Was just wondering if you could support your 'in the region of 70p' statement.

Also, why do you say, "Shorts closing soon."? There are zero reported short positions at or above 0.5%.

[ammu12] 03/1/2019 09:06

Strange you don't see the gradual rise 47.15Thus will be close to the figure in days weeks. Shorts closing soon

[ed 123] 03/1/2019 08:56

Would you be willing to quote your city sources, Ammu12?

46.7p In the market atm. That doesn't suggest a 70p bid is being discussed.

[jotoha2] 03/1/2019 08:54

My city sources say do not sell below 100/120 pence , they are very busy with the coffees

[ammu12] 03/1/2019 08:51

Offer in the region of 70p according to city sources

[steve73] 03/1/2019 08:49

But if Medco (or anyone acting in concert with them) have bought any shares in the past 12 months, then an offer must be AT LEAST equal to or above the HIGHEST price they paid.