Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thedudie] 10/1/2019 15:50

Amazing how few shares the directors own here .... 15.28 RNS
They don't have much skin in the game!
td

[valuehunter1] 10/1/2019 15:26

Wbodger, net debt is only c$65m so debt is no problem. Pure and simply the market has priced this wrong hence Medco coming in. In fact, market has priced quite a few quality play O&G stocks wrong and will have to re-rate as cash flows keep on rolling in. SIA and CNE are others where Mr Market has mis-priced. Serious plays out there for value hunters to make some hay.

[wbodger] 10/1/2019 15:07

There's no value in Fortuna but some of the folks at Ophir might have a sentimental attachment to Tanz. Add GOM and perhaps some of the other Asian prospects and there might be the base for a continuing company. They would want full value for assets coveted by Medco - ie not less than Ophir paid for Salamander and Santos, increased by discoveries since.

Tanzania should have some value if Shell do get on with a LNG solution. Magafuli might end up being a help, not an obstacle.

At current price Ophir's market cap is 300 million pounds. That doesn't seem much for 25k boepd. (At 32 pence share price it would have been 250 million. Derisory.) What's the problem, debt?

[ammu12] 10/1/2019 13:19

55p is my guess. 65p would be better

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 12:20

Binary outcome - fwiw, my view is that a recommended offer will come. A deal would suit both sides, the price is the difficulty.

Yup, that's where my thinking is - given the minimal downside on a walk away - current prices are pretty reasonable.

[ed 123] 10/1/2019 12:12

Valuehunter1.

I've used a reported Citigroup figure of 39p for the SE Asian assets. It's just an estimate.

You may be right, at 55p for any offer?

Nigelpm.

Yes, and it shows Medco are serious.

Binary outcome - fwiw, my view is that a recommended offer will come. A deal would suit both sides, the price is the difficulty.

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 12:10

Somewhere in that ballpark feels right - it all comes down to the shareholders - given the mixed bag I honestly have no idea whether that would gain enough acceptance.

[valuehunter1] 10/1/2019 12:05

Having said that, I think Medco will offer 50p; OPHR will want 60p and a deal will be cut at 55p. Would be a good result for Medco.

[valuehunter1] 10/1/2019 12:03

Ed agree with most of the above but the value of SE assets has to be more than 39p per share. 70m 2P and able to produce min 25kpoepd for at least the next 3 years should result in significant cash flow.

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 12:00

Ok, there's a news vacuum atm. I've revisited my valuation.

Excepting the RBL adjustment Medco have completed I agree.

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 11:59

Why do these countless forms need to be issued. What value is it adding what difference isn't making what are these forms exactly stating. Why the constant forms every minute of the day?????

I've found it quite useful actually as I've able to develop a spreadsheet with all holders > 1% - it's for disclosure and openness - one can see if a party is building a stake I guess.

[ed 123] 10/1/2019 11:58

Ok, there's a news vacuum atm. I've revisited my valuation.

For me, the difficult asset to price is the Tanzanian gas. The Tanzanian government is moving forward, but slowly and there is political risk. Imo, Ophir needs to sell this asset (or sell the whole plc), since it cannot afford to stay in the game - too small to fund 20% of this big development project. So, as a weak seller, how much could Ophir get? My guess, it could be anywhere from, say $50 million to $200 million? That Pavilion price was a dream - I can't see anything like that amount now - political risk. So, say 5p per share, up to 20p per share.

Value of SE Asian assets? 39p per share?
Mexican licences (nothing found, nothing drilled, but good prospectivity) say $50 million? 5p.
Tanzanian licences 5p to 20p.
Total 49p to 64p?

The shares were as low as 32p recently. There has to be some gain for the acquirer.

An offer of 50p might be fair? If it were as high as 55p I'd be delighted.

Downside? If parties can't agree the shares will fall - guessing 36p?

(As ever, no advice intended - just my own view.)

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 11:58

If they can't agree that's also market sensitive, but I would expect that announcement only when Ophir's trading market is closed, ie 7am someday.

hxxps://www.stockmarketclock.com/exchanges/idx/trading-hours

It's an interesting point but I don't think it matters whether it is released before Medco opens in Far East or after Ophir closes in London but in my view it is highly likely to be in that period (i.e. after 16:30 but before IDX opens) to avoid it being traded in stock market opening hours.

[spacedust] 10/1/2019 11:55

Ifnl therr was a done deal then price would have gone to that done deal price...announcement or not.

Why do these countless forms need to be issued. What value is it adding what difference isn't making what are these forms exactly stating. Why the constant forms every minute of the day?????

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 11:54

Nigel you weren't just 'asking a couple of questions' - don't try to be smart it just comes across smarmy instead...

You also don't have any right to tell me how to word my questions. Hope that helps.

[adg] 10/1/2019 11:43

Nigel you weren't just 'asking a couple of questions' - don't try to be smart it just comes across smarmy instead...

You were condescending and arrogant - very uncalled for and rude imo... just to remind you, your actual 'couple of questions' were phrased as below;
----------------------------------------------------------------

"Gonna have to help me here and it might be me being slow but how does TA have any relevance to what price a bidder is likely to pay for a business?

I look forward to your response on this but don't feel obliged to use charts to answer the exam question"

[wbodger] 10/1/2019 11:38

If there's a done deal it has to be announced - it's very market sensitive. So there isn't one yet. (No reason to wait until the stock market closes as soon as they are ready to table what has been trailed. Besides, the bidder is quoted in the Far East, and their market will usually be closed when Ophir's is open.)

If they can't agree that's also market sensitive, but I would expect that announcement only when Ophir's trading market is closed, ie 7am someday.

[thedudie] 10/1/2019 11:34

Looking stronger today ....
Good news to come in Tuesday's statement?

[ammu12] 10/1/2019 11:32

Bid strengthening

[nigelpm] 10/1/2019 11:31

Why are there forms 8.3 and 8.5 if a bid has not been put forth

It's a requirement of the takeover code when there is a potential offer :

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FALLING UNDER RULE 2.4 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE")

[spacedust] 10/1/2019 11:17

There's nothing on the independent regarding a done deal

[spacedust] 10/1/2019 11:14

Why are there forms 8.3 and 8.5 if a bid has not been put forth

[ammu12] 10/1/2019 09:14

Looking better today

[sporazene2] 10/1/2019 08:17

agreed, decent TA from tradesmarter.