Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 17/2/2023 15:21

Some profit taking this pm so I added 50k.

Much more to come here.

[dave4545] 17/2/2023 12:27

All5 mm's on L2 are now 8-9p

Obviously way higher online to sell

[bubbabubbabubba] 17/2/2023 11:54

I think newcastle coal is sinking too 97 quid a ton

[the original goldbug] 17/2/2023 10:37

I remember after the Russian crisis in 2008 when the stock market fell 80% in 6 months. I bought some illiquid stocks near the lows. They ran up 400% in three months. Trading on the technicals would have prevented me profiting to the extent I did.

I’m actually a great believer in technical analysis but don’t think it is particularly relevant or helpful for deeply illiquid and deep, deep value recovery situations.

[dave4545] 17/2/2023 10:17

I'm not sure you might get a big dip here, it's not a day traders stock, most people are in it for the recovery, now the big sellers are out the mm's have very little stock to play with

[dave4545] 17/2/2023 08:05

The trader in me always thinks is their a opportunity to sell and buy back cheaper but most of the time in momentum stocks I end up getting locked out or have to buyback higher.

This is racing away atm on small volumes, maybe delayed buys at the open ?

[goldenshread] 17/2/2023 06:05

This does look a great recovery play however for newbies it is worth noting the RSI is 75 which means the stock is heavily overbought, never buy the top of a spike, historically the stock has retraced from such levels.

[dave4545] 16/2/2023 21:15

Yeah no need to worry about online limits and overhangs onwards to 20p with multiple shakes and dips on the way

[nathandc] 16/2/2023 21:01

With my 1.4m shares waiting for this to turn around ...High coal prices and Covid killed this for 2 years

[jailbird] 16/2/2023 20:57

Where were you bulls when it was sub 6p prior 2-3 weeks ago?

[nathandc] 16/2/2023 16:23

TOG The fundamentals of this company are there 1. Paid off term loans - low leverage 2. Increased tariffs 3. Contacts in place 4. Coal prices decreasing 5. 414mw - $0.5m per MW - cap $200m +This is definitely a new phase - be interesting to see if this makes it to the real potential value GLA

[the original goldbug] 16/2/2023 15:49

Yes, I suspect it is one of the least leveraged.

The more significant point is that they were never locked into long term contracts, so weren't forced to produce at a loss.

In danger of stressing the point only a period of high profits can re-liquify the sector.

New money won't be tempted in unless the profits are fat.

Everyone in the game has lost money, besides OPG.

When Arvind Gupta was raising funds back in 2011 the IRR's in the sector were 25%.

I think we will get there again.

If that is the case and IRR's get to 25%, I think the stock can trade on 1.5x (plus) book or 65pence or more. Of course that is the rosy scenario.

Still, it would be amateur to sell at 14pence when we appear to be in the first innings of a new cycle.

[tim000] 16/2/2023 15:27

Thanks, very informative post. The company has stated it is one of the least leveraged power companies in the country, but your post provides some detail. Do you have some connection to the Indian power industry? Obviously you don’t need to reply if you don’t wish to.

[the original goldbug] 16/2/2023 15:11

I don’t think many people understand the full depth of the crisis that has affected the Indian power sector.

Most of the players are locked into long term contracts. They are haemorrhaging cash. Those in receivership are being sold on by the banks at between 0.05-0.15% book value because they are loss making or partially built projects.

The genesis of this problem lies in the boom of the noughties, where people financed these things with debt offset with contracts to buy from the local transmission networks. It has been in a disaster. OPG’s model was different and unique.

The Ukraine related coal spike was the final nail in the coffin. It’s amazing that they were still bale to eke out profits in that environment.

Lastly the institutions were chased out by the ‘contemporary heresy’ of investing in coal.

It looks like everything is changing for the better. Don’t make the mistake of selling out too early.

[jailbird] 16/2/2023 14:46

This is true also

[tim000] 16/2/2023 14:21

Good post! Energy deficits are disastrous for a developing economy such as India. Economic growth and living standards. India will need coal-fired power for many decades, OPG should have a bright future.

[the original goldbug] 16/2/2023 14:15

Because at 6p it would be on 0.7x normalised EBIT. .

The whole sector needs to make good profits otherwise no new investment will take place and India will have a power deficit problem.

[jailbird] 16/2/2023 13:31

I have sold a few today, let the rest run .Moved up on low volume which surprised me as it was doing the opposite before .Maybe overhang from big seller has cleared

[ali47fish] 16/2/2023 13:17

but why the spike in thew first place!

[tim000] 15/2/2023 15:24

Definitely a good day, breakout confirmed and underpinned by falling coal prices - which I imagine is the cause of the rise. I have just under 2 mn shares.

[dave4545] 15/2/2023 14:49

If you going by charts this is almost on a breakout from the drop a year ago, if it breaks that then next resistance is 10p but I'm in this for 15-20p recovery and could be more if they are raking in the profits by then

[dave4545] 15/2/2023 11:08

wow have you seen this

OPG which never moves on millions of buys is up on L2 on 13k buy and now Wins switch from offer to bid on a 5000 buy or £350

[bubbabubbabubba] 13/2/2023 12:57

I own about 800k shares not sold one don't plan on it Too cheap I'll sell at 20p minimum

[jailbird] 13/2/2023 12:43

Not me.

Safe hold at around these levels