Opg Power Ventures Dividends - OPG

Opg Power Ventures Dividends - OPG

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Opg Power Ventures Plc OPG London Ordinary Share IM00B2R3RX72 ORD 0.0147P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Low Price High Price Open Price Close Price Last Trade
-0.25 -1.92% 12.75 12.75 13.00 13.00 13.00 15:27:56
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Industry Sector

Opg Power Ventures OPG Dividends History

Announcement Date Type Currency Dividend Amount Period Start Period End Ex Date Record Date Payment Date Total Dividend Amount

Top Dividend Posts

rivaldo: Good, solid 9 months trading statement - nicely in line, and debt down 22%....plus the outlook is confident too: Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/opg-power-ventures-OPG/share-news/OPG-Power-Ventures-plc-3Q-FY20-Trading-Update/81717772
thirty fifty twenty: Hi Andy - I have tried to highlight the +ve's and the risks. My broad point was that the power plant is worth a lot more as part of a multi national power owning conglomerate that it will be ever be valued at on the stock market, so at all time Gupta has the option to sell the power plant at a large premium to the valuation on the stock market. this possibility gives some floor to the share price. I think you also miss my point re the benefits of reducing debt. the price today is a rating of profits - a very low rating because of the concerns some investors have. even if this rating does not change … the value of the equity increases as CASH flow reduces debt - that is just the mathematics of it. For the price 'not to rise' would require a continual de-rating of the company every year - this doesn't seem like a logic thought process to me. for me, the concerns that others have re Gupta and Corporate Governance relate to issues about the PLC. The actual asset, the power station, was built to budget, is very profitable and generates CASH. The issue with the other power plant was to do with structural inefficiencies in India which affected all operators. It is reasonable to conclude that Gupta and team lacked skill to start a project there but they also must be credited with building a second , and very successful Power Station. Their current stated intention is to reduce debt - which I think is a very sensible strategy and will increase shareholder value. I understand fully the arguments about an over paid CEO with little skills etc... and whilst I can comprehend the arguments that he is inadequate, I don't think the company has told untruths. Thus as long as they keep paying down debt , I am a happy holder. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL OPG is in my top 5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty: I think OPG is a very interesting risk /reward situation at 18p. There are of course many risks which (I will outline at the end) but my strategy is looking for opportunities where the market is placing too much emphasis on the risks and thus the price is too low and has a chance to rise. I think that OPG have been increasingly clear about their debt reduction plans, and it is simple maths that as time goes by, they make profits, they generate CASH, they pay down debt and this increases the value of the shares. There are bumps (operational, plant upgrading, coal prices, customer contracts etc..) but the strategy is quite simple and supported by the fact that India is a growing economy. OPG very helpfully lays out the actual impact of this in the presentation. Taking their figures this is c.5p of value added to the shares this year and next year. That is equivalent to c.30% annual return! So even with a margin of safety there is a good chance of a 15% return per year (my strategy). What I think is interesting with these forecasts though is the following year. Next year it is assumed that PLF will be down to c.70% whilst upgrades are taking place but the following year it will be back to 75%+, turnover will be up and the EPS fcts for 4p for FY 2020 to c.5.5p for FY 2021. I note also that the Cenkos fcst makes no allowance for lower interest rates in FY 2020 so I think their 3.9p fcst for 2020 leaves something in the tank. CASH flow in FY2021 would thus add closer to 6p to shareholder value in FY 2021. On top of this there will be the CASH from the sale of the Solar assets (NBV = 15m, making 800k profit on 20% capacity. I have assumed future profits of c.3m and a sales price of > 20m (of which OPG have 30% and an option to buy a further 30%) i.e. I expect c.6m to OPG from the sale. This is another dent into debt, which because of the high interest rates in India would have a disproportionate impact on EPS. So for all things being equal then at 18p I can see possible returns of 5p, 5p and 6p over the next 3 years which is very attractive. The downside (for me) is the 15p support the price has seen over the last 4 months. Looking at the variables.... India - economy growth expected to increase to 7% next year. this should support future electricity prices. PLF - this year 75%-80%, next year with plant upgrade 70% (included in forecasts), medium term 80%+ Coal Price - most market forecasts are for lower longer term coal prices. For FY202 OPG have hedged 60% which means they can be certain of CASH flow to reduce debt levels. Coal Price - they are talking to miners about long term supply arrangements. This will be announced later in the year. This reduces the risk of market pricing and additionally gives even more certainty about debt reduction. Environment - Coal is here to stay in India b/c it needs so much energy. India is no longer building thermal plants but it just cannot afford to shut down the current ones. OPG has one of the lowest emission levels of thermal producers. Customers - they had extra capacity this year as some customers had reduced demand but did not sell it to new customers as they want to stick with their current client list and demand is expected to recover to normal levels in H2 Bad debt - this was a one off, long term dispute. It is notable that the PES of 2.0p for H1 is AFTER this bad debt charge. Interest rates - these are falling in India which will be a big benefit for OPG Tax Rates - India has reduced Corporation Tax Rate and indicated it will do so further Solar - they are talking to several interested parties. Size is 63MW and normal prices are c.800kUSD per MW = 50mUSD so for OPG 30% stake = c.12m GBP (my assumptions are OPG to only receive 6m) So I do expect bumps and volatility but the variables generally seem to be in OPG favour. The big negative that it talked about much here is Gupta and his 52% shareholding. Yes this exists but the other side of the coin is that he and the other directors (via LTIP) are very heavily incentivised to obtain a higher share price. In fact , I think it is reasonably obvious that at any time OPG could be bought by a multinational. The asset to that multinational would easily be worth 10 times EBITDA ie.. 360m less say 60m of debt = 300m (75p a share). As a PLC with one major asset, and a 52% CEO the listed price will always be much much less than this but as the debt is repaid the chance of a bid increases as the listed valuation is so much lower. This also puts a floor under the share price. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL OPG is in my top5 hldgs
dave4545: TOG Come on look at the share price and valuation, it's totally bombed out, it's prices as though there was going to be a horror show. Market cap £60 million. in a few years it will debt free and swimming in cash. I think a 50-100% rerating to a more sensible valuation is on the cards here
smithless: For those who didn't listen to the conference call, this is the takeaway from someone who did. Apart from the call being interrupted a couple of times from India, Mr Gupta went through the same bullet in the prelim RNS. The CEO did the same but did point out the required spend for the £11m (£5m 2020, £6m 2021) for the four units to comply with new standards. In the Q&A someone asked about the increase in debtor days but was put down to the end of year timing and some later payments from its supply of power to state utility. The LTIP were changed because of complaints by shareholders - so do listen. My take: solar to be sold to pay for new emission standards capex and although the debt for this project is now consolidated on the B/S, it's up for sale and will hopefully be sold in the nxt 12mths, thus removing debt and hopefully enough to pay the £11m for better combustion controls and selective non-catalytic reduction system (it may go for SCR to be future proof). The reason the script was cut IMHO was that Gupta is the only real winner from it and its dilutive for no real purpose. Why the share price has tanked is that Cenkos forecasts the EPS will be flat over the nxt 2 years, which makes it dead money for at least the nxt 12-18mths and low PLF due to capex upgrades of its units - unexpected. Value here, but can see the frustration because these were supposed to be the results when past problems were history. Only for the patient and will keep my modest holding.
jinvest1: Shame about today's price reaction but overall I think it is in a good place and well worth holding. Now it has returned to profitability, trading at just over 2X EBITDA and somehow just over 0.5 on it's tangible assets. That's just crazy whatever way you look at it and the share price should reflect that in time - even if it isn't a particularly exciting stock.
john09: Typical OPG share price action. It’s a casino stock always has been
jinvest1: Overall good news, as expected. Shame about the divi though but still crazy undervalued, can't bear to watch the share price at the moment however. Will be glad when these speculative sellers have it all out their system.
beangrinder: Dimitri confirmed July date for results in his Mid June Shares sponsored presentation. He continues to refer to comparable operators being valued at 8-9 times EBITDA which reads across to a huge discount in OPG share price. On a similar basis we should be running between 60p and 100p (by my estimate when debt free). I’ve watched his presentations and Q&As this year and am of the view that if a re-rating starts it should be strong. My main gripe is the easy money the directors will all make in the LTIP, which triggers at 30p. Money for nothing imho. I think (from memory) they get 5% of company for doing nothing more than pointing out how undervalued the shares are! I won’t complain though if we move up to 60p+...I’ll just sell up and move on!
jozo: oldboffy, Thanks for your thoughts - I hope you're right and it turns out that I am indeed exaggerating!! Strangely enough I too am hoping to make some significant money in opg for a second time and have been a buyer at prices ranging form 33p down to 17.6p - average price 22.5p However a couple of bad experiences over the last 20 years with highly indebted companies have made me especially cautious. On the other side of the coin I have made significant sums from companies that have pulled themselves out of these situations. I am, in spite of my posts, hoping for the latter with opg. I suspect I am more than guilty to reacting to some of the blind one-sided 'this company can do no wrong' comments often seen on this bb. Current cash flow may well be just enough to cover existing covenants and obligations but the rise in coal (up until 2 weeks ago) was exceedingly alarming and if sustained would undoubtedly have stretched opg's ability to stay cash flow positive particularly in the short term and would undoubtedly have put a serious strain on debt obligations. Fortunately it appears there are signs (for a number of possible reasons as discussed by myself and yourself) that coal prices are at last reducing - this really needs to continue. I also take your comments regarding group captive status being significant but from my understanding previous years (2016 and 2017) as well as going forward for 2019 have yet to be confirmed. There is a degree of uncertainty here - the market clearly does not like this and is understandably cautious. Also comments in recent results regarding withholding interest payments on long term debt, while I recognise as part of a process, are far form reassuring. The resolution of both these issues will impact significantly on market sentiment. I have copied and pasted the relevant sections below: - ''OPG Gujarat has recently received approval from the relevant Gujarat authorities confirming its Group Captive status for FY18. This is significant progress in resolving the matter of late payments and the Company anticipates that the amounts delayed for FY18 (approximately GBP5.3 million as at 30 September 2017) will be recovered principally in the current financial year. Constructive dialogue continues on receiving confirmation on Group Captive status for FY16 and FY17 and, consistent with the view held at the Group's FY17 results, management continues to expect the recovery of the monies, approximately GBP26.1 million as of 31 March 2017, withheld by theDISCOMs''............................................. ............................. ''The Group has been in regular dialogue with its lenders at the Gujarat plant with regards to the long term loans at its SPV, OPGS Gujarat ("OPGG"). Due to the previously disclosed delayed recovery of the amounts withheld by the DISCOMS at the Gujarat plant, the Company has withheld GBP3.9 million of quarterly interest payments due in respect of the period ended 30 September 2017 on OPGG's long term debt. This non-payment of interest enables OPGG to enter the Corrective Action Plan ("CAP") process set out by the Reserve Bank of India ("RBI") circular)(1) . The CAP process is well established and is designed to assist borrowers in the rescheduling and/or restructuring of its long term loans. In light of the recent reaffirmation of OPGG's Group Captive status the Board anticipates that the outcome of the CAP process should enable OPGG to better match the cash flows from the Gujarat plant with its debt obligations and to facilitate OPGG's self-sufficiency. [1] RBI's MASTER CIRCULAR - PRUDENTIAL NORMS ON INCOME RECOGNITION, ASSET CLASSIFICATION AND PROVISIONING PERTAINING TO ADVANCES (RBI/2015-16/101 DBR.No.BP.BC.2/21.04.048/2015-16, July 1, 2015 (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewMasCirculardetails.aspx?id=9908)'' I have been in and out of investing in opg since its very early days when it had less than 20 mw of output - I have seen the share price fall as low as 11p and rise beyond 110p. Operationally OPG have managed to achieve what they set out to do. One thing, however, that has always struck me is that opg management have always managed news flow really badly and have almost without exception over promised and under delivered. Yes a lot of these issues are not necessarily of their own making - eg high coal costs, but trust in management is at an all time low. The projected business model and raison d'etre of the initial public listing are all but abandoned. The 'jam' tomorrow anticipated by many investors has not materialised. OPG is not loved at all, but as the saying goes 'the darkest hour comes before the dawn'. With the right headwinds opg has the potential to reward investors at these levels. There is also some indication in the markets that investors are starting to seek out value. Opg is far from being a lost cause, and 'value' will always 'out'. While significant risks still exist (IMHO), I sincerely hope for all on this bb that opg has bottomed and we are all able to enjoy the rewards of a sustained recovery. jozo
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