Ms Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 12/10/2005 11:44

they bought back 1.2m shares just before the November interim results last year Leopold.

I had already had my eye on them, they had already doubled profits at the previous year end and looked too cheap, if all was going well. There had already been good director buying before those finals too.

Just looked very overlooked - I should credit BritishB for pointing them out to me tho, just after the finals.

Looking back I see I'm actually up more than 200% on them now, the first purchase anyway :-)

CR

[leopold555] 12/10/2005 11:27

CR hope you don't mind me asking, what made you invest in MSI? How did it come to your attention?

N.B. I am aware that you follow the Zulu principle etc.

Leo

[cockneyrebel] 12/10/2005 11:24

Well I've held these for a year now, and they are a few pence short of being up 200% for me - and I am not selling.

Took a few months longer to double than I suggested in the header in December but it's there now. I still think these are a one bagger again over 12-18 months myself.

CR

[leopold555] 12/10/2005 08:57

I wonder if the initial tick up was a ploy by the MMs to get stock knowing that profit takers would come in?

Doesn't help though because we just buy it

[graham_brown1] 12/10/2005 08:46

It can't do anything else but go up.

[leopold555] 12/10/2005 08:32

Excellent value

[rivaldo] 12/10/2005 08:30

I'm not complaining! The ridiculous thing is that at 143.5p it's still only on a historic P/E of 11.3 and imo on a single figure P/E of probably 9.5 and maybe as low as 7 or 8.

[leopold555] 12/10/2005 08:11

WOW! Look at this baby go

[graham_brown1] 12/10/2005 00:15

Up over 2% on small volumes, just 20.5k shares traded, all buys.
Looks good for the lead up to the Interims next month.

[leopold555] 11/10/2005 15:10

We are on a good un here!

[rivaldo] 11/10/2005 14:50

Yep! And now 7,500 shares bought at 139.5p, 1.5p above the offer! Can't be bad.

[leopold555] 11/10/2005 13:40

Agreed rivaldo, could be a ploy to try and get some stock, we know there is a shortage?

[rivaldo] 11/10/2005 12:59

CR, come on, don't change the habits of a lifetime :o))

Unusual for MSI - 11,000 shares bought today, yet down a tick. MM games or perhaps a delayed sell to come? Given director buying, upcoming results and large contract wins no every reason to be in at present imo.

[wiganer] 10/10/2005 15:35

Just did a test sell order. Got quoted 135.26p to sell. Think I'll hold on for a bit...

[cockneyrebel] 10/10/2005 14:29

Well I've been accused of not being cautious enough in the past Rivaldo so I'm mending my ways and playing it down a bit.

Now silence! cos you're making me want to buy more! :-)

CR

[cambium] 10/10/2005 14:24

blimey!! :o)

[rivaldo] 10/10/2005 14:15

Ta for the comments everyone.

CR, you're using the fully diluted EPS - I prefer to refer to the basic EPS unless the dilution is imminent, as in most cases the dilution probably isn't an issue for another 2 years at minimum and maybe 5 to 7 years in reality upon exercise. By which time the company is a completely different entity anyway.

In MSI's case, last year's basic EPS of 12.7p would on your above calculations be worth at least over 18p EPS this year, for a P/E of 7.5 :o))

[tonyx] 10/10/2005 12:44

CR,

Thanks for the info on this thread-Ive grabbed a few today

[cockneyrebel] 10/10/2005 12:36

yes Rivaldo, could be pretty close or even too low on the EPS there.

10.8p eps last year. Add another 0.8p to allow for share buy backs = 11.6p.

H1 2004 1.1p eps
H2 2004 3.1p eps
H1 2005 4.8p eps
H2 2005 6p eps.

I'd say on that momentum 7p eps in H1 looks on the cards even before the share buy backs do their bit. 8p in H2 looks well achievable too - then the share buy backs adding about 0.8p. So 16p eps this year may well be possible if not likely.


That would suggest 20p next year - put that on a forward PE of 11 (well reasonable for the = 220p a share imo. Makes you look a tad cautious imo :-)

Even if you err on the cautious side of your estimate 170p looks well achievable by the interims I'd say.

CR

[cambium] 10/10/2005 12:34

Does anyone have any broker forecasts?

[cambium] 10/10/2005 12:33

I think 15p is a tad conservative Rivaldo, but equally a PE of 12 is a little high for such a small cap. Maybe 17 x 11 = 170p ... Not too far away from each other are we, its only the market that need s to catch up :o)

[leopold555] 10/10/2005 12:17

rivaldo will you sell on results or hold them. I am hanging on to mine for longer term

[rivaldo] 10/10/2005 12:14

Really motoring now. Assuming 15p EPS this year, a P/E of only 12 would give a 180p price target. Anyone care to comment?

[leopold555] 10/10/2005 09:55

Oh well! the consilation is that you didn't buy PRTY as well LOL!

Anyway sorry for the O/T everyone, someone has actuallly sold some! They will be snapped up!

[wiganer] 10/10/2005 09:50

No, didnt buy ITM unfortunately.